Will JFK Win In 1964, If He Lives To Contest It?

Obviously I'm presuming he's not seriously injured in Dallas or at anytime prior to the upcomming presidential election. Are there any other possible Democrat contenders? Who do the Republicans put up against him? Can details of his Whitehouse pool escapades leak out? Can mayor Daley's 'extra' votes in Illinois come back to haunt him! How does his second term progress, after all he's not in the best of health with Addisons disease and with his satyrism is there any possiblity of a Lewinsky moment comming to light in public during it? Will LBJ have been his running mate?
Implications for Cuba and Vietnam etc?
 
I'll recap briefly since there have been many JFK Lives threads.

George Wallace had already announced his intent to seek the Democratic nomination before Dallas, but that's no more than a nuisance value.

Goldwater probably still gets the nomination because Rockefeller's divorce and child had leaked earlier in the year. If the CA primary goes the other way Rockefeller is nominated, if Goldwater wins as per OTL it is Goldwater.

No to both Daley and the press violating their unspoken contract with the brothers.

Cuba: Mongoose continues unabated though there will be back-channel contacts.

Vietnam: advisers withdrawn to be replaced with arms shipments.

Health: will stabilize but will deteriorate gradually as he ages, but you won't see this until after he leaves the WH.
 
Kennedy would almost certainly win against Goldwater probably with LBJ as his running mate. However the Kennedy legend would be tarnished probably through Vietnam which he would become deeply involved in probably more enthusiastically than Johnson was and the demonstrators would be chanting "Hey hey JFK how many kids have you killed today!" His private life would remain private, that kind of thing was still kept under raps in those days, LBJ was allegedly as bad.

1968? two consectuive full terms rules out a third term but by that time inflation and Vietnam were taking their toll and the Republicans probably win maybe even with Nixon. Bobby Kennedy may try to take up the banner but on rather a different ticket than he did as he would be compromised over Vietnam. McCarthy also helps split the Democrats.

At home a slightly more Conservative programme than under Johnson in particular regarding the Great Society
 
I think Rogue Beaver may have a good handle on this. A few items that I think may happen. I think JFK beats his GOP opponent. But not has bad as LBJ did over Goldwater. I would not be surprised if JFK goes to Cuba the way Nixon went to China to work out a deal. In 68. I could see the GOP turing to Rockfeller. But either way I think the GOP would win in 68. I could see LBJ running. I don't think Bobby runs for president than. It was just too early for him after two terms of his brother. Just like Jeb Bush waiting a while .
 
I think Rogue Beaver may have a good handle on this. A few items that I think may happen. I think JFK beats his GOP opponent. But not has bad as LBJ did over Goldwater. I would not be surprised if JFK goes to Cuba the way Nixon went to China to work out a deal. In 68. I could see the GOP turing to Rockfeller. But either way I think the GOP would win in 68. I could see LBJ running. I don't think Bobby runs for president than. It was just too early for him after two terms of his brother. Just like Jeb Bush waiting a while .

I think some of this would be plausible particularly if the Vietnam war is taking a heavy toll. Nelson Rockerfeller would stand a chance of winning on a withdrawal ticket. I suspect LBJ might be getting a bit old to run by 1968. I agree that Kennedy would not have the landslide LBJ had. I think however Bobby Kennedy would try his hand unless he though the GOP would win. Cuba? It would be one of the few good points of a second Kennedy Term that would be tarnished by Vietnam
 
Would Kennedy drop LBJ from the ticket or Johnson stays?

Depends on who you listen to. JFK's secretary said he would drop LBJ in favor of Terry Sanford. Others believe he would go with George Smathers. Whatever the case you're looking at a southerner to balance the ticket. If LBJ is dropped than he could still make a run in 1968, though unlike with him being the VP he won't be the frontrunner.
 
Another good question would there be an "alternate" Vietnam in another front such as Africa. If America isn't turned off of intervention against the Communists it's possible.
 
However the Kennedy legend would be tarnished probably through Vietnam which he would become deeply involved in probably more enthusiastically than Johnson was and the demonstrators would be chanting "Hey hey JFK how many kids have you killed today!"

No, because Kennedy would not get involved in Vietnam. He was against it, fearing another Korea quagmire, he didn't even like the situation involving advisers getting the US in there to begin with and said that Ike had laid that problem on his lap, and wanted to revert to a policy of aid and supply with a full withdrawal by 1965 (McNamara thought this unfeasible and drew up a plan for full withdrawal by 1968). Kennedy also frequency fought off military men in his administration who called for greater involvement.

Johnson was many times more likely to get into Vietnam than Kennedy. He was less knowledgeable of the situation, had less foreign policy experience and credentials to wiggle out of it or know what not to do (JFK was a foreign policy wonk; LBJ was a domestic policy wonk), and was willing to listen to the military men and go in guns a-blazing. And even then, he could have avoided it easily.

A minority of the public paid attention to Vietnam, and a minority of that portion saw South Vietnam victory as the outcome of the conflict. Vietnam was a non issue, easily avoidable if one wanted to avoid it.

Another good question would there be an "alternate" Vietnam in another front such as Africa. If America isn't turned off of intervention against the Communists it's possible.

Few people remember, Korea had already been that kind of situation. It was a quagmire, very unpopular at home after a while, and the US barely won it. That's what made many anxious about Vietnam to begin with; it could have been another Korea, and it turned out to be even worse.

The US won't see as extreme an aversion, but it'll still have the lessons of Korea. And secondly, what motivation would they have to get involved in a conflict like that?

It's possible, I suppose, but not destined to happen. And Vietnam was a unique situation; it was lead by hardened nationalists and Communists and had a people who had the spirit to fight on and on to millions of casualties, and was in supply range of the Communist world.
 
JFK is not dropping LBJ, both the brothers dismissed the possibility, as did Bobby when the rumour surfaced in a 1968 book.

Kennedy II Cabinet

Secretary of State: Robert McNamara
Attorney General: Nicholas Katzenbach
Secretary of Defense: Robert Kennedy
UN Ambassador: Dean Rusk

Bobby runs for NY governor against Rocky in '70 or quits early in '68 to run against Javits for the Class 3 (Schumer) seat in November. He runs in '76 or '80 depending.

Don't worry, McNamara is just the brothers' agent at State. However as always the 2 Bobs are the nexus of the Kennedy Cabinet.
 
JFK is not dropping LBJ, both the brothers dismissed the possibility, as did Bobby when the rumor surfaced in a 1968 book.

I concur with RogueBeaver. LBJ was just too valuable on the ticket, in the cabinet, and in deal-making with southern legislators to be dropped in 1964. Personal differences aside, which IIRC did not become serious between Booby and LBJ until well after JFK was dead and buried.

Furthermore if the failed assassination attempt failed because the kill-shot from the second shooter missed, POTUS JFK would still have been hospitalized at least as long as Ike was after his heart attack. I contend that his wounding would make JFK unbeatable in 1964...it was a different age...people actually cared about such things back then.

Hero of Canton
 
I don't think Bobby runs for president at all if this plays out. Wasn't Bobby's motivations to be president, at least in part, to finish his brother's work?
 
I don't think Bobby runs for president at all if this plays out. Wasn't Bobby's motivations to be president, at least in part, to finish his brother's work?

Well let's look at the context. In 1968 Bobby WAS running to finish Jack's legacy, among other things. But Bobby isn't going to run in 1968 if Jack lives, because he would lose the nomination to LBJ. Now Bobby could very well run in 1972, 1976, or 1980 depending on the situation. In this scenario it's really Teddy who never runs, as he had no desire in OTL to be President in the first place.
 
First of all: LBJ would be blocked if he tried to run against Bobby. Remember that 75% of the delegates are controlled by no more than 5 bosses, foremost among them Dick Daley.

Personal differences started in the 1950s, political differences (by 1967 this is straight up New Deal v. DLC for control of the Party's ideological direction) after 1964.

Yes, he runs for POTUS eventually: he was perhaps the most ambitious of all the brothers, and entirely self-generated at that.
 
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