Will Austria-Hungary and the Ottoman Empire break up in a late CP-victory TL

Will Austria-Hungary and the Ottoman Empire fall in a late CP-victory TL?

  • Yes, Austria-Hungary will fall, it is inevitable by now

    Votes: 9 22.5%
  • Yes, the Ottomans will fall, it is inevitable by now

    Votes: 3 7.5%
  • Yes, both of them will fall

    Votes: 11 27.5%
  • No, neither will fall, not in the aftermath of the war. (They might fall in the future)

    Votes: 16 40.0%
  • Other, please specify

    Votes: 1 2.5%

  • Total voters
    40
Suppose the following set of events occurs: In 1917, the Germans don't send the Zimmermann telegram to Mexico or, if it is a British forgery as some say, they deny it vehemently. Unrestricted submarine warfare continues and the US bitch and moan about it and mumble something about free trade with neutrals, but remain neutral and instead increase trade with the Entente. Come March 1918, the Russians surrender as per OTL and the Spring Offensive starts, but the main thrust of this alt-offensive is against Amiens and Hazebrouck. They fall which completely screws up the Entente supply situation as these are important logistical hubs. Dunkirk and/or Calais also fall which causes the supply situation to deteriorate terribly. France, at this point it crumbling. A mutiny erupts in the army and a general strike paralyzes France. The people want peace and bread and in summer 1918 the Entente powers request an armistice. Seeing how France crumbles, the Greeks evict the Entente troops by force. They never wanted them anyway. The Bulgarians and Ottomans fare slightly better as a result in Thrace.

Will the OE and A-H fall in this scenario? Please bear in mind that in A-H was torn apart by internal strife, but that that was partially fuelled by Wilson who promised the ethnic groups independence. As for the Ottomans, they were fighting on multiple fronts and crumbled under the pressure and not because they were 'the sick man of Europe'.
 
AH will be riped apart by civil war between loyal imperial troops and Hungarians if greater federalisation happens (which is likely) as it'll dilute Hungarian power.

Likely outcomes, Hungary suceeds and becomes a seperate entity or it is brought back into the union
 
A 1917 POD? You'd still have T.E. Lawrence and the Arab Revolt in that case, but if the Entente sues for peace and Russia's consumed by internal revolt already, surely it would be fairly simple for Ottoman forces to regroup, head south, and engage counter-insurgency measures?
 
You need a clear, early victory to make them survive long after the war. By these conditions, a late CP victory will only delay their fall.
 
OTL they didn't really start to fall apart until it was very clear that the war was lost. That's not to say that there weren't problems, just that those problems had remained relatively contained until it was clear the war was lost.

IMO, with a CP victory the Ottomans will be able to handle the Arab revolt and be in a fine position to rebuild, especially once the benefits of abolishing the Capitulations and oil gives the Empire a much stronger economy. Austria-Hungary has bigger issues since their problems are built into the system (the Ausgleich) and are going to be very difficult to solve without a civil war/major rebellion. Breakup of Austria-Hungary isn't inevitable (What kind of AH scholar says anything is inevitable?) but by the end of World War I it is certainly a difficult proposition.
 
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