Wilhelm Marx Wins the German Presidency in 1925

We first have to ask *how* Marx could have won--apart from Hindenburg declining to run?

The most obvious way is to get the Bavarian Peoples Party to support their fellow Catholic Marx instead of the Lutheran Hindenburg. Here is Joergen W. Falter's analysis:

"In some accounts of the 1925 presidential election, Hindenburg's second-ballot victory is attributed either to the refusal of the Communists to withdraw their candidate, Ernst Thaelmann, or to the decision of the Catholic Center's Bavarian sister party, the BVP, to support the arch-Prussian Protestant Hindenburg instead of the Rhenish Catholic Marx. Either the KPD or the BVP is thus held responsible for taking away the approximately 500,000 swing votes that would have assured victory to Wilhelm Marx. Putting the blame upon the Communists seems to me a bit farfetched: given the explicit enmity of this party toward the Weimar 'capitalist state,' it would have been completely unrealistic to expect the KPD to support the candidate of the Weimar system. On the other hand, the BVP's decision to support Hindenburg instead of Marx may indeed have been crucial. It is therefore worthwhile to analyze how many votes the Bavarian party's decision might have cost the candidate of the Weimar coalition.

"In Bavaria, Hindenburg outpolled Marx by more than 15 percentage points, as compared to only 3 points in the Reich as a whole...Table 5 reports percentage distributions and correlation coefficients for Bavaria, while Table 6 displays transition probabilities. The effects of the BVP's recommendation for Hindenburg are clearly discernible. On the first ballot, Jarres got only 6 percent of the eligible voters in that 20 percent of the Bavarian counties where the BVP vote of the previous December was highest; the overall correlation coefficient is rather strong and negative in sign ( - 0.74). By contrast, Hindenburg was able to collect 40 percent of the electorate in the heaviest BVP (and first-ballot Held) precincts. By the same token, Marx won many fewer votes here than might have been expected. Table 6 indicates that approximately 60 percent of the first-ballot Held partisans followed their party's recommendation and voted for Hindenburg on the second ballot, compared to only about 20 percent who switched to Marx. This would indeed imply that about half a million votes could be attributed to the BVP's unfortunate recommendation. In the light of Hindenburg's past political record, the BVP's electoral policy may be characterized as shortsighted if not frivolous..."

http://www.ideals.illinois.edu/bitstream/handle/2142/2288/file_1.pdf

Unfortunately, while getting the BVP to support Marx is not as implausible as getting the KPD to do the same, it is still difficult. It had become quite right-wing, and would have a hard time supporting any candidate supported by the SPD.

If Marx had won, would Hitler ever have come to power? Very likely not, *if Marx had won re-election in 1932.* But that is a big "if." Hitler might well defeat Marx for re-election--after all, he made a respectable showing in 1932 even against Hindenburg, who certainly got some conservative votes that Marx could never have won (though even Hindenburg lost much of his right-wing support of 1925 in 1932, making up for it on the center and left). And with the presidential power to rule by decree, Hitler would quickly have been able to transform his presidency into a Nazi dictatorship one year earlier than the one that came about in OTL.

If as in OTL Marx's fellow Zentrum politician Bruening becomes Chancellor and follows the same deflationary policies in OTL, I am not terribly optimistic about Marx's prospects in 1932.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
We first have to ask *how* Marx could have won--apart from Hindenburg declining to run?

The most obvious way is to get the Bavarian Peoples Party to support their fellow Catholic Marx instead of the Lutheran Hindenburg. Here is Joergen W. Falter's analysis:

"In some accounts of the 1925 presidential election, Hindenburg's second-ballot victory is attributed either to the refusal of the Communists to withdraw their candidate, Ernst Thaelmann, or to the decision of the Catholic Center's Bavarian sister party, the BVP, to support the arch-Prussian Protestant Hindenburg instead of the Rhenish Catholic Marx. Either the KPD or the BVP is thus held responsible for taking away the approximately 500,000 swing votes that would have assured victory to Wilhelm Marx. Putting the blame upon the Communists seems to me a bit farfetched: given the explicit enmity of this party toward the Weimar 'capitalist state,' it would have been completely unrealistic to expect the KPD to support the candidate of the Weimar system. On the other hand, the BVP's decision to support Hindenburg instead of Marx may indeed have been crucial. It is therefore worthwhile to analyze how many votes the Bavarian party's decision might have cost the candidate of the Weimar coalition.

"In Bavaria, Hindenburg outpolled Marx by more than 15 percentage points, as compared to only 3 points in the Reich as a whole...Table 5 reports percentage distributions and correlation coefficients for Bavaria, while Table 6 displays transition probabilities. The effects of the BVP's recommendation for Hindenburg are clearly discernible. On the first ballot, Jarres got only 6 percent of the eligible voters in that 20 percent of the Bavarian counties where the BVP vote of the previous December was highest; the overall correlation coefficient is rather strong and negative in sign ( - 0.74). By contrast, Hindenburg was able to collect 40 percent of the electorate in the heaviest BVP (and first-ballot Held) precincts. By the same token, Marx won many fewer votes here than might have been expected. Table 6 indicates that approximately 60 percent of the first-ballot Held partisans followed their party's recommendation and voted for Hindenburg on the second ballot, compared to only about 20 percent who switched to Marx. This would indeed imply that about half a million votes could be attributed to the BVP's unfortunate recommendation. In the light of Hindenburg's past political record, the BVP's electoral policy may be characterized as shortsighted if not frivolous..."

http://www.ideals.illinois.edu/bitstream/handle/2142/2288/file_1.pdf

Unfortunately, while getting the BVP to support Marx is not as implausible as getting the KPD to do the same, it is still difficult. It had become quite right-wing, and would have a hard time supporting any candidate supported by the SPD.

If Marx had won, would Hitler ever have come to power? Very likely not, *if Marx had won re-election in 1932.* But that is a big "if." Hitler might well defeat Marx for re-election--after all, he made a respectable showing in 1932 even against Hindenburg, who certainly got some conservative votes that Marx could never have won (though even Hindenburg lost much of his right-wing support of 1925 in 1932, making up for it on the center and left). And with the presidential power to rule by decree, Hitler would quickly have been able to transform his presidency into a Nazi dictatorship one year earlier than the one that came about in OTL.

If as in OTL Marx's fellow Zentrum politician Bruening becomes Chancellor and follows the same deflationary policies in OTL, I am not terribly optimistic about Marx's prospects in 1932.
What about simply having Hindenburg choke to death on a sausage in 1925? Would that work for this?

Also, would Marx have actually appointed Bruning as Chancellor? Indeed, couldn't Marx have gone with someone more left-leaning (perhaps someone from the SPD)?
 

Perkeo

Banned
We first have to ask *how* Marx could have won--apart from Hindenburg declining to run?

Since we are takling about only 3% swing I don't think we even need an elaborate solution. Some mistake by Hindenburg, some mistake avoided by Marx, that's easy to imagine.

If Marx had won, would Hitler ever have come to power? Very likely not, *if Marx had won re-election in 1932.* But that is a big "if." Hitler might well defeat Marx for re-election--after all, he made a respectable showing in 1932 even against Hindenburg, who certainly got some conservative votes that Marx could never have won (though even Hindenburg lost much of his right-wing support of 1925 in 1932, making up for it on the center and left). And with the presidential power to rule by decree, Hitler would quickly have been able to transform his presidency into a Nazi dictatorship one year earlier than the one that came about in OTL.

If as in OTL Marx's fellow Zentrum politician Bruening becomes Chancellor and follows the same deflationary policies in OTL, I am not terribly optimistic about Marx's prospects in 1932.

It's all true, but Hindenburg had a 19.5% lead, so there's enough safety margin. I see a close race but still a victory for Marx in the second ballot. Hitler's rise to power wasn't unavoidable.
 
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