Apparently during the Battle of Koniggratz Wilhelm I, Bismarck and von Moltke all gathered together on a hilltop to observe the battle not realising that it was within range of the Austrian canons. Several shells promptly landed nearby forcing them to make a speedy retreat alarmed but unhurt. So what happens if as the point of departure the Austrian gunners are a little more accurate or just plain lucky and one of their shots hits right on target killing all three men outright?
Of the two main options the first one which I'm going to ignore in this thread is that it throws the leadership of the Prussian armies into chaos allowing the Austrians to win the battle, and the war. It's not too unlikely a possibility as IIRC the battle wasn't as big a walkover for the Prussians as is often made out.
The other one I want to look at is that whilst it might wobble slightly the Prussians continue as planned and win pretty much as in our timeline. Crown Prince Frederick, now Frederick III, is still there leading the Second Army who seem to have done a lot of the work so there's not a massive gap in overall leadership and the commanders of the other armies are still in charge so they continue with the plan. The question then becomes what happens after the battle?
Losing all three men and having the crown thrust on him in short order is I think going to make Frederick III want to finish things as soon as possible so rather than annexing any Austrian land like some of the generals were pushing for he'll settle for Bismarck's plan of pretty much a white peace but with Austria put firmly on the outside of German unification and losing her influence. What happens in the west though?
Will he annex defeated countries like Hanover, Schleswig and Holstein, and the other small ones or force them to join the North German Confederation? Even if Bismarck is dead the next layer or government is still there and he'll have written about his aims, although whether Frederick follows them is another question. If he does annex them he probably wont renege on the deals to let the former rulers keep at least part of their monies like Bismarck did who confiscated them and used it as a slush fund. Speaking of the North German Confederation how does that develop? Bismarck had a large hand in writing its constitution, sure he'll have left what he's already though up behind but will Frederick agree to it? Whilst he didn't leave much to judge him on due to his short reign in our timeline he does seem to have leaned to the liberal side a bit and thought about reforming the more unwieldy parts of the German Empire which it grew into.
Longer term assuming that he still gets cancer and dies as in our timeline that still gives him another 22 years. With no Bismarck will Germany be more open to the liberals and socialists without him there to repress them? It also means he's not there to poison his successor, our timelines Wilhelm II, against his parents. I think you can almost certainly rule out a German instigated war with France, although one where Napoleon III starts one could still happen, so is German unification a more slow and peaceful process? And will Germany ally with Austria-Hungary later on or stayed with Russia?
Lots of question, nowhere near enough answers. Time to get reading.
