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Could we get a situation where the European colonists from the Wild West turn into Mongol style horse nomads and prevent anyone else from exerting their influence over the Great Plains?

I was thinking of a Zomia type situation. People leave the areas in the northernmost Reaches of North America (OTL Canada) and the land east of the Mississippi River to escape taxation, conscription, oppressive rule or for opportunity etc. This leads to small bandit gangs forming which grow in power until large Golden Horde-esque tribes develop, rich off the trade between the east and west coasts (colonization worked out way different in this timeline).

The societies of Central Asia seemed to be able to maintain metal equipment and their armour despite being horse nomads. Perhaps these Central Plains hordes will be able to maintain reasonably advanced equipment for their time too (roughly 1700 onwards).

They could have metal working equipment that they take with them when they move camp. Small sedentary communities in the area would be forced to pay tribute to them and provide whatever the hordes cannot manufacture, similar to the Tarim basin societies and the Xianbei. They turn the area into an extremely hard to conquer area due to the horde's camps being mobile, "living in the saddle" and the large amounts of cavalry they can bring to bear against their neighbours.

How far would the hordes be able to get in the timeline before these horse nomads are unable to defend their land from their sedentary neighbours? Currently I've got them getting to 1800 before their northern neighbour takes over.
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