And if he occupied the whole HRE it would be even better.
The war lasted for 13 years and even if by the end the Order gave up, Casimir's resources also had been exhausted and, taking into an account both Papal and Imperial support of the Order, annexation of all Order's territories was not realistic.
Yeah, sure. Except that pro-Lithuanian party (mostly local oligarchy), which prevailed in Novgorod in 1471, never had a wide popular support. Novgorod did not have a standing army and its militia was pathetic: even taking into consideration possible exaggerations by Moscow side, their whole army (of presumably 30K) was routed by advance detachment of Ivan's army totaling something like 5K, mostly Tatars of Kasimov. After which Novgorod was besieged, pro-Moscow party got an upper hand and the leading Casimir's "allies" had been executed. BTW, even the party that called for Casimir's help considered just defense of the Novgorodian independence from Moscow. And idea of "Subjugating Moscow" was too bizarre to be considered seriously.
Hello.
I think that the papal and imperial support for the Teutonic Order was not an issue, during the Thirteen years war, so in years 1454-66: The emperor was not a very powerful man called Frederick III
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frederick_III,_Holy_Roman_Emperor a duke of Austria, who even couldn't hold his own capital against Mathias Corvinus in few years in the future. Habsburg ascendancy really started in 1477 when his son Maximilian got the burgundian lands, still he was more interested in them, and resident primally in Brussels than in not his own lands on the shores of the cold sea. Bohemia and Hungary were ruled by a child king called
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ladislaus_the_Posthumous , first country was torn by religious conflicts, and the second one under the shadow of turkish agression. Soon Ladislaus died, and Bohemia got a hussite king George of Podebrady, who was the last man in the whole world to support the Teutonic Order, and Hungary got Mathias Corvinus, also he had bigger concerns than the Teutonic Order. The rest of german princelings were too small, too weak, and too unimportant and too far to play any significant role in the war. Also a matter of geografic distances. Still Casimir Jagielończyk could have used lithuanian forces in this war, but he didn't. Still, I'm not talking about anexing all Order's territories, but the Prussian lands, which was possible. Back for Popes, they didn't have any real powers, they could cast anathemas as much as they wanted, but in this age, after the greatern western schism in particular, nobody cared for that. First pope during the early years of the war was Calixtus III, a Borgia, so this name means everything in this context. Later was Pius II he cursed both sides of the war, nobody cared, he died when the war ended in 1466.
For the Novgorod-Muscovite wars. There is an interesting issue, you pointed that Poland wasn't able to totally devasted the TO, because papal and imperial support for this, later you pointed that Moscow could do anything to Novgorod, and lithuanian support was irrevalent. I don't understand what is the difference, that there support of distant leaders mattered, and here a support from a neighbour country didn't. By subjugating Moscow, I mean not only conquering this thing, but also humilating, defending, succesfully helping Novgorod. More interesting thing here, I think that you by writing that hitted people who dream about timelines about estabilishing the Lithuanian Empire, because you pointed that Lithuania big and under strong leader was too weak to help Novgorod against her eastern archenemy. Also I want to point that a generation later Ivan III got like a third of Grand Duchy areas after the war with Alexander Jagielończyk, so really that was better to help Novgorod when there was the time for it.
Teutonic Order provided job for younger sons of HRE aristocracy, totall anihilliation of Order State was not possible before Reformation, Pope, Emperor and whole HRE would oppose such move, as it would cause internal problems inside Empire. And considering the fact, that royal treasure was emptied by Hungarian adventures of Władysław III, for which bishop Zbigniew Oleśnicki was responsible, 13 years war was success. What Łokietek achieved against Order? Lost Pomerelia, then Dobrzyń and his native Cuiavia, and still was lucky, that he avoided complete Czech-Teutonic partition of Poland, Casimir the Great also avoided open conflict with the Order, while 'pathetic' Jagiellon was able to restore Polish control over mouth of Vistula.
I'm speaking now about the thirteen years war, not about early 15 th century, a generation later there were not raids into Lithuania, and younger sons were not that important to this "holy war against evil Poland" in the second half of the century. Łokietek was succesful, yes he lost many things, but he survived this is the way why he succesed, that we didn't became yet another germanized realm under some german dynasty and ultimately Habsburgs. yes, he didn't win everything and against everybody, but still he created this free polish kingdom, not bohemian, not german, but polish. From a tiny princeling he rose to the king of Poland, and laid fundations to future Casimir's succeses. If Poland under Łokietek was that bad, so "jakim cudem" Casimir for or five years under his crowning was able to gather a big ammount of money to pay John of Bohemia? State instutitions and tax system had to be estabilished before.
Was the HRE and the Pope actually in any position to do anything meaningful to stop it though?The Great Schism is atill a thing at this point,and the emperor most likely have other things to do.
No they weren't. I wrote above why.
The Pope/one of them can excommunicate Poland and Lithuania. As to the Emperor - Sigismund - he is is the ruler of most (as in almost all) of Poland's western neighbours ...
Did you mean which period? The Great War of the Thirteen Years War? Yes, I agree Sigismund was a nuisance, and dangerous, but he was dead during the later war.
Not only Emperor but also Electors and lesser monarchs of HRE would oppose anihilation of TO state, TO, which relied on German guests and mercenaries, solved problem of troublesome younger sons of German dukes, it is in interest of them all to keep TO state alive. Also Denmark would not be happy with Poland getting too strong.
Guest and raids on Lithuania were not an issue during the Thirteen Years War. Still during the Thirteen years War those german princelings and the emperor couldn't do anything, and for mercenaries they fought whereever was some war. And I am not speaking about liquidation of the whole state, but at least anexing of the whole prussian territories.
They DID oppose and, IIRC, the Pope did not approve the
Second Peace of Thorn . There was a proposal of moving order to Podolia to fight Muslims (which, formally, made sense, taking into an account the reason for Order's creation) but it generated zero enthusiasm both in Order and in Lithuania.
Anyway, a complete annexation of Order's territories would requires a continued war for which Sigismund did not have money. And it would involve taking a number of the well-fortified places, which at that time always was a risky thing.
Of course, it was a success: Order had been reduced in size and lost most of its power.
I wrote above about those issues with the Pope. An idea of moving the order was during our Jan Olbracht's royal namesake times.
They could. Papal ban still was a serious thing and most of the Polish mercenaries were from Bohemia so Emperor could do at least something to limit their availability.
During which period those mercenaries where from Bohemia? During the Thirteen Years War they were probably mostl hussites, so didn't care. I know that even during earlier smaller wars betwen that and Grunwald, hussites Jan Zizka included fought as polish mercenaries.
And Teutonic State lost land connection with HRE. It was Sigismund Augustus (who gave Brandenburg line rights to inherit Ducal Prussia) and then Sigismund III (who allowed Elector to take Duchy AGAINST will of Prussian nobility, who wanted incorporation to the Crown) who screwed things with Prussia. Otherwise Prussian problem would cease to exist after 1618.
So, I'm right, they were just idiots.
Not available at that time, unless they create one of their own. They had to deal 1st with Calixtus III and after his death with Pius II who was for a while a Bishop of Warmia and had well-set opinions on the whole issue.
He was this bishop one year, and never been there, and his anathemas and cursed didn't have any influece.
Also I want to point that during the Thirteen Years War, Poland was supported and encouraged to the war by the Prussian Confederacy so cities and nobles of this area, who supported polish rule. And even with that support stupid Casimir couldn't win this war sooner and totally. This war only caused giving more privileges for the polish nobility.