... I paid attention to what you wrote, except you edited yours, which yes you did before I posted, but not before I started forming my reply. I apologize that I did not wait till then. So let me address that comment first:
Okay sorry for misunderstanding that then, but why would Denmark stop fighting, when they certainly were willing to fight in this period of history!? you keep saying that little fighting will happen, and then Peter's idea will happen because Denmark will agree to a peace. While I'm saying that Denmark WILL fight for it. I'm not saying they will win, but they will fight for it. And I certainly do doubt Russia's capabilities of finishing such a war to the aforementioned goal.
As you will notice I mentioned this in my post too, it is not like I ignored it. There is however a very fucking important point here. Where you are 100 % complete wrong. the Baltic Sea does not
completely freeze over every winter, and you should know that before going in saying something like that (IMHO)
Here is something for you:
"On the long-term average, the Baltic Sea is ice-covered at the annual maximum for about 45% of its surface area. The ice-covered area during such a typical winter includes the
Gulf of Bothnia, the
Gulf of Finland, the
Gulf of Riga, the archipelago west of Estonia, the
Stockholm archipelago, and the
Archipelago Sea southwest of Finland. The remainder of the Baltic does not freeze during a normal winter, with the exception of sheltered bays and shallow lagoons such as the
Curonian Lagoon." - Wikipedia on the Baltic Sea
The Danish straits are 1: fast flowing hindering the formation of ice unless it is a harsh winter. 2: the salinity of the Danish straits are higher and equal to that of the nearby Kattegat, not the low salinity that the Baltic sea in further in, which helps preventing ice to form.
The Danish Straits freezing over is a very big deal, during the last 100 years it happened TWICE, in 1942 and 1966. and nearly in 1987 If you wanna base a plan on that good luck.
Even then crossing such frozen over straits are a huge gamble, that paid off for the Swedes. Yes Russia would be able to cross the straits IF the winter was harsh enough, if they can pull it off they can enforce a peace on Denmark.
I wrote relative irrelevancy, Peter's idea about reconquest showed Denmark that having Gottorps in Holstein is not as safe as they hoped it was.
I never mentioned that Denmark was unbeatable, infact I said the complete opposite earlier in this thread:
So I kindly ask you not to pull the biased card again, when you're incapable of answering my questions or statements. You're belittling the effort I am making and I find that insulting.
No I never said that, I said if you want a quick and easy peace that you want in the scenario, you need to threaten what matters to Denmark, which is Copenhagen, the danish isles (Sjælland) and Norway. In that order, I doubt Russia is capable of that, as mentioned previously, please don't change the meaning of what I'm writing to fit your narrative.
If you want to bring Denmark to the peacetable otherwise, you need either A: fight a war that exhausts danish resources, something that is certainly possible, but it requires a war, not just occupation of fifty percent of Schleswig. or B: offer a reasonable deal that Denmark is willing to accept such as the exhange that happened
I also mentioend Denmark is willing to fight a war during this period something you still keep ignoring. Why are they willing to fight this war? Because to Denmark this "little piece" of territory matters. Might not have mattered to Russia in the long run, but it clearly did to Denmark. So please answer why the fuck Denmark would just hand over the territory without getting anything in return.
Oh hey stats you did not mentioned in the previous post, hey apparantly it is not common for all of the baltic to freeze over the winter, who would have guessed !?
Let's see, "reasonably cold winter" it says in the link that you posted:
"In mild winters the Sea of Bothnia doesn't freeze at all and the Gulf of Finland only gets a partial ice cover. In severe winters the ice reaches the Danish Sounds and the central Baltic Proper."
Yea.... as mentioend early, if you wanna base you plan on that I suggest you look up old sources to check the severity of the winters in the late 18th century...
Edit:
They will refuse it, as I said previously, due to these territories being seen as vital (vital in the sense of security) to the Danish state, loosing these territories will set Denmark back diplomatically several decades. That is why they will fight it. Furthermore Oldenburgs worth is relative litte (considering Denmark was willing to trade it for undisputed control of Holstein) Schleswig and Holstein is worth more, but this will not be the first time they have been occupied it is, as mentioned, something Denmark is willing to let happen.
The continental territory of Denmark are not the moneymakers of the Danish state. The isles, Norway, trade and the sound toll are. To threaten this you need to beat Denmark at the sea, or walk over a not very often frozen over pieces of straits
Which I've mentioned several times, yet you seem to ignore this fact.
goodnight, looking forward to answering your reply tommorow!