WIF: Russian Shlezwig-Holstein

5 January 1762 Karl Peter Ulrich of Holstein-Gottorp became Peter III, Emperor of Russia. On May 5 1762 he made peace with Prussia and started planning war against Denmark in order to restore parts of Schleswig to his Duchy of Schleswig-Holstein-Gottorp. He focused on making alliances with Sweden and with England to ensure that they would not interfere on Denmark's behalf, while Russian forces gathered at Kolberg in Russian-occupied Pomerania. Alarmed at the Russian troops concentrating near their borders, unable to find any allies to resist Russian aggression, and short of money to fund a war, the government of Denmark threatened in late June to invade the free city of Hamburg in northern Germany to force a loan from it. Peter considered this a casus belli and prepared for open warfare against Denmark.

In June 1762, 40,000 Russian troops assembled in Pomerania under General Pyotr Rumyantsev, preparing to face 27,000 Danish troops under the French general Count St. Germain in case the Russian-Denmark freedom conference (scheduled for 1 July 1762 in Berlin under the patronage of Frederick II) failed to resolve the issue. However, shortly before the conference, Peter lost his throne (9 July 1762) and the conference did not occur. The issue of Schleswig remained unresolved.

WIF the coup of Peter's wife failed? Catherine II and Russian official propaganda spent a lot of effort trying to present this affair as some kind of a national effort with a broad support base but this hardly was the case. Catherine did have support of the Guards (but IIRC even Izmailov Regiment wavered) and of court aristocracy offended by Peter's manners (how did he dare to insist that, if someone has general's rank, he should at least know a basic drill). However, he was very popular among the Russian nobility after abolishing compulsory military service and abolishing the secret police as an institution did not hurt him in the eyes of a general population. Commander of the army assembled against the Denmark, who also happened to be the best (by far) Russian general of that period, was quite loyal to him and his army of 40K were veterans of the 7YW, not the drunken imbeciles of the Guards most of whom did not see any action (outside St-Petersburg's drinking establishments and bordellos). The only thing Peter had ti do (his tiny Holstein unit stationed near the capital was not adequate for the task of beating the Guards) was to get on his horse and ride toward Rumiantsev's army (sending faster courier to get there first) and then march with a fraction of it to the rebellious capital. Most of the top figures would switch the sides well before he reaches St-Petersburg. As for the Guards, it was one thing to arrest few hundred Holstinians who did not put any resistance and quite another to fight a battle against the veterans led by Rumyantsev. Probably enough of them would be sobered enough by such a perspective to arrest Catherine, Orlov brothers, Hetman Razumovsky (if he did not yet fled to Peter) and send them to Peter as a show of submission and future good behavior. :cool:

Back to the point, the revolt is suppressed and Peter is back to his plans. Conference in Berlin fails (or Denmark agrees to the terms) and from now on Russian Empire is in a personal union with a Duchy of Schleswig-Holstein-Gottorp.

Long-term consequences can be quite interesting and the closer we are getting to the unification of Germany the more interesting they become.
 
5 January 1762 Karl Peter Ulrich of Holstein-Gottorp became Peter III, Emperor of Russia. On May 5 1762 he made peace with Prussia and started planning war against Denmark in order to restore parts of Schleswig to his Duchy of Schleswig-Holstein-Gottorp. He focused on making alliances with Sweden and with England to ensure that they would not interfere on Denmark's behalf, while Russian forces gathered at Kolberg in Russian-occupied Pomerania. Alarmed at the Russian troops concentrating near their borders, unable to find any allies to resist Russian aggression, and short of money to fund a war, the government of Denmark threatened in late June to invade the free city of Hamburg in northern Germany to force a loan from it. Peter considered this a casus belli and prepared for open warfare against Denmark.

In June 1762, 40,000 Russian troops assembled in Pomerania under General Pyotr Rumyantsev, preparing to face 27,000 Danish troops under the French general Count St. Germain in case the Russian-Denmark freedom conference (scheduled for 1 July 1762 in Berlin under the patronage of Frederick II) failed to resolve the issue. However, shortly before the conference, Peter lost his throne (9 July 1762) and the conference did not occur. The issue of Schleswig remained unresolved.

WIF the coup of Peter's wife failed? Catherine II and Russian official propaganda spent a lot of effort trying to present this affair as some kind of a national effort with a broad support base but this hardly was the case. Catherine did have support of the Guards (but IIRC even Izmailov Regiment wavered) and of court aristocracy offended by Peter's manners (how did he dare to insist that, if someone has general's rank, he should at least know a basic drill). However, he was very popular among the Russian nobility after abolishing compulsory military service and abolishing the secret police as an institution did not hurt him in the eyes of a general population. Commander of the army assembled against the Denmark, who also happened to be the best (by far) Russian general of that period, was quite loyal to him and his army of 40K were veterans of the 7YW, not the drunken imbeciles of the Guards most of whom did not see any action (outside St-Petersburg's drinking establishments and bordellos). The only thing Peter had ti do (his tiny Holstein unit stationed near the capital was not adequate for the task of beating the Guards) was to get on his horse and ride toward Rumiantsev's army (sending faster courier to get there first) and then march with a fraction of it to the rebellious capital. Most of the top figures would switch the sides well before he reaches St-Petersburg. As for the Guards, it was one thing to arrest few hundred Holstinians who did not put any resistance and quite another to fight a battle against the veterans led by Rumyantsev. Probably enough of them would be sobered enough by such a perspective to arrest Catherine, Orlov brothers, Hetman Razumovsky (if he did not yet fled to Peter) and send them to Peter as a show of submission and future good behavior. :cool:

Back to the point, the revolt is suppressed and Peter is back to his plans. Conference in Berlin fails (or Denmark agrees to the terms) and from now on Russian Empire is in a personal union with a Duchy of Schleswig-Holstein-Gottorp.

Long-term consequences can be quite interesting and the closer we are getting to the unification of Germany the more interesting they become.
Peter uses Russian troops to Fight against Denmark ?
 
Peter uses Russian troops to Fight against Denmark ?
Yes, of course. It was clearly said in the post (and Wiki) that he was assembling an army 40K strong in Pomerania.

It became an official spiel of the Russian propaganda that the war did not serve any interests of the Russian Empire but Peter just ended Russian participation in a much greater and more expensive war which did not serve Russian interests either (7YW). Actually, Rumiantsev was quite enthusiastic about the war against Denmark.
 
Yes, of course. It was clearly said in the post (and Wiki) that he was assembling an army 40K strong in Pomerania.

It became an official spiel of the Russian propaganda that the war did not serve any interests of the Russian Empire but Peter just ended Russian participation in a much greater and more expensive war which did not serve Russian interests either (7YW). Actually, Rumiantsev was quite enthusiastic about the war against Denmark.

Poor Denmark. Since Petya probably divorces Ekaterina as soon as he gets wind of the plot (he was considering it OTL). Which means he needs to go bride shopping, and no way is Friedrich of Prussia going to pass off this opportunity to extend his influence in Russia. Not to mention Petya's a big Fritz fanboy, so chance he'll marry a Prussian (proxy) princess is good.

I actually used the seed of this idea for my TL. Petya remarries to Elisabeth Christine of Brunswick (OTL Crown Princess of Prussia), and has kids with her. His son with Ekaterina, Pavel, still succeeds as Emperor but his son by Elisabeth succeeds as duke of Holstein (etc). Here it would simply be that Pavel would get the lot. Could be fun...
 
Poor Denmark. Since Petya probably divorces Ekaterina as soon as he gets wind of the plot (he was considering it OTL). Which means he needs to go bride shopping, and no way is Friedrich of Prussia going to pass off this opportunity to extend his influence in Russia. Not to mention Petya's a big Fritz fanboy, so chance he'll marry a Prussian (proxy) princess is good.[\QUOTE]

Actually, he had a girlfriend and there was an indication that he is planning to marry her after divorcing Catherine (who already was a Prussian proxy princess recommended by Fritz while he was still on the talking terms with Elizabeth). Not that he would not be able to change his mind.

I actually used the seed of this idea for my TL. Petya remarries to Elisabeth Christine of Brunswick (OTL Crown Princess of Prussia), and has kids with her. His son with Ekaterina, Pavel, still succeeds as Emperor but his son by Elisabeth succeeds as duke of Holstein (etc). Here it would simply be that Pavel would get the lot. Could be fun...[\QUOTE]

Most probably Paul would get all.
 

As I say, I decided to avoid a Russian-Schleswig personal union and Elisabeth Christine's OTL marital woes in one go, hence why I let Petya remarry and use his second family's kids to take over Holstein. But what would Russia do with holding Schleswig? I mean, sure it's a convenient place to station troops that you can use as a deterrent to Denmark or Prussia making any sudden moves. But would it not also get Prussia and Denmark to band together? It's the first point of attack if either Denmark or Prussia are involved in a war on the opposite side to Russia - sort of like Britain and Hannover.
 
As I say, I decided to avoid a Russian-Schleswig personal union and Elisabeth Christine's OTL marital woes in one go, hence why I let Petya remarry and use his second family's kids to take over Holstein. But what would Russia do with holding Schleswig? I mean, sure it's a convenient place to station troops that you can use as a deterrent to Denmark or Prussia making any sudden moves. But would it not also get Prussia and Denmark to band together? It's the first point of attack if either Denmark or Prussia are involved in a war on the opposite side to Russia - sort of like Britain and Hannover.

Well, you are talking about an unclear future which nobody could predict at that time. As things are looking at that time:

Prussia is a close ally (and remained being so even during the 1st years of Catherine's reign) and after the 7YW it is not in a good position to start brawl with the Russian Empire. The time when it starts showing any proprietary interest to Holstein area is more than a century away.

Denmark is not a land power to be considered seriously and, (after most probably being seriously beaten in the War Which Did Not Happen) is not going to make any serious trouble, especially taking into an account that King of Sweden is Peter's uncle and Prussia is Russian ally.

There is no need to station the Russian troops in the Duchy permanently: there are Holsteinian troops.

But the LONG TERM consequences, providing Russian emperors are still maintaining the union, are very interesting. How about the Kiel Canal for the starters? Or possible Russian-German arrangements at the time of the German Unification (they are allies at that time)?
 
Britain's nightmare. That would not lasts long, no longer than untill French Revolutionary Wars.

Why is it British nightmare? Russian Empire and Britain had been allies most of the XVIII and, with a short interruptions, through the Revolutionary and Napoleonic Wars. The union does not represent any threat to the British interests in the HRE and, if anything, probably improves British trade with Russia by providing an extra port (Kiel) on the route.

French Revolutionary Wars had been happening far away so you are talking about the Napoleonic Wars when the Duchy is most probably occupied by the French and the Danes during the war of the 4th Coalition to be returned by the Treaty of Tilsit, occupied again in 1812, "liberated" during the war of the 6th Coalition and not being a subject of discussion at Vienna unless Alexander wants to give it to one of his German relatives or to make it a part of a territorial swap (unlikely).
 
The problem with this entire conflict are that I can't see Russia winning, the Russians may very well beat the Danish army, through it's not given, but the result will just be the Danes retreat to the islands, close of Russian Baltic trade and wait the Russians out. The Russian navy won't best the Danish one, and honestly the Dane can afford to wait. The problem are made worse by the fact that if Russia occupies the Jutish peninsula the Danes can use their navy and large marine corps to attack Russians up and down the peninsula. This entire conflict was badly thought out, by changing sides at the point he did, he alienated the Swedes, who was necessary part of the attack on Denmark, the Russian navy wasn't really ready for the conflict, and the Danish army could very well have defeated the Russian one in Mecklenburg, at last UK, Netherlands and France all had a common interest in Russia not controlling the access to the Baltic, which meant the Danes could likely have received funding abroad, if they had to retreat to the islands (and Norway), and these countries would likely accept Denmark closing the Baltic for Russia for the rest of the conflict.
 
Why is it British nightmare? Russian Empire and Britain had been allies most of the XVIII and, with a short interruptions, through the Revolutionary and Napoleonic Wars. The union does not represent any threat to the British interests in the HRE and, if anything, probably improves British trade with Russia by providing an extra port (Kiel) on the route.

French Revolutionary Wars had been happening far away so you are talking about the Napoleonic Wars when the Duchy is most probably occupied by the French and the Danes during the war of the 4th Coalition to be returned by the Treaty of Tilsit, occupied again in 1812, "liberated" during the war of the 6th Coalition and not being a subject of discussion at Vienna unless Alexander wants to give it to one of his German relatives or to make it a part of a territorial swap (unlikely).
Britain IOTL opposed both Russian western expansion (was hostile towards idea of giving Duchy of Warsaw to Tsar and opposed annexation of Posen into Congress Poland, as it would move Russian sphere of influence to close to the heart of Germany) and expansion to the South, to the open 'Warm Seas'. Britain is not sentimental, yesterday ally could became tomorrow enemy if British interests are endangered and UK after Napoleonic Wars would not allow any continental power to grow to strong.
 
Well a Russia that followed Peter III in switching sides in the 7YW has immediately made an enduring enemy of Austria and the Hasburgs. It would be in the interest of the Hasburgs here to aid the Poland-Lithuania Commonwealth as a major buffer state. That could really effect the later Partitions of Poland. With the Hasburgs on its side, Prussia and Russia would have a much harsher time trying to partition or puppetize the PLC.

Meanwhile Russia's logistics are still shit at this time. It was hard for Russia to get to East Prussia in the Seven Years War. While I wouldn't put it past the russians to get an army to Schleswig-Holstein once or twice, and they'd probably beat the Danish army, but long term support? Very much doubt it. Schleswig-Holstein was 750~ miles from Russian territory, and the Baltic isn't a clear solution to this as the Danes have a respectable navy and the Russian navy wasn't able to relieve the logistical situation of the Russians in East Prussia during the 7YW.

Overall I imagine that the Russians could probably take it, but would inevitably lose it. It's a small duchy, too far from the vast russian manpower. With at least four states between them, two of them major ones (Prussia and the PLC, with Mecklenburg and Swedish Pomerania depending on their route). Sweden isn't really in any condition to aid overly much under the party politics of Adolf Frederick. Russia had tried blocking the Oresund during the 7YW, so I doubt Britain will like Russia having ports so close to the Oresund even if Peter III saved the European front with his turn. So Denmark will likely receive subsidies. Any forces in Schleswig-Holstein will be ground down. Russia's Baltic Fleet will be battling the Danish fleet, and Denmark will be closing the Oresund for Russian trade.

This seems a messy, drawn out conflict to no benefit of Russia. Denmark may be smaller and not as powerful, but it is closer and better positioned. How long can Peter convince the Russians to keep sending aid to this distant duchy, and how long will the states between them allow Russian armies to travel through them?

I'd say Schleswig-Holstein ends up devastated, and Denmark in the end probably reclaims it after a grinding war. It then probably exerts even more control over the duchy, after having gone through the effort of retaking it.
 
Yes, of course. It was clearly said in the post (and Wiki) that he was assembling an army 40K strong in Pomerania.

It became an official spiel of the Russian propaganda that the war did not serve any interests of the Russian Empire but Peter just ended Russian participation in a much greater and more expensive war which did not serve Russian interests either (7YW). Actually, Rumiantsev was quite enthusiastic about the war against Denmark.
This is something I never I understood, everyone seems to act like Peter was this giant idiot but looking at it objectively I don' see anything terribly stupid about what he did and was trying to do.
Meanwhile the previous tsarina had the Russians in a war against a non threat for no real reason beyond the fact that she didn't like Fritz.
 
Well a Russia that followed Peter III in switching sides in the 7YW has immediately made an enduring enemy of Austria and the Hasburgs.

Not too "enduring" because there were common interests against the Ottomans. In OTL Catherine changed nothing in Peter's peace with Frederic and nonetheless Joseph visited Russia after the 1st Ottoman War and was Russian ally in the next one.



It would be in the interest of the Hasburgs here to aid the Poland-Lithuania Commonwealth as a major buffer state.

It would be in their interests but they could do little (besides annexation of a piece of the PLC) with the Russian troops stationed in PLC and Sejm doing what it is told to do by the Russian ambassador. "Puppetization" of the PLC already was a fait accompli for quite a few years. Probably since the War of the Polish Succession.


That could really effect the later Partitions of Poland. With the Hasburgs on its side, Prussia and Russia would have a much harsher time trying to partition or puppetize the PLC.

You are talking about the Hapsburgs after they had been visited by the ASBs. Hapsburgs always were on their side. The only thing that OTL Maria-Theresa wanted was to annex a piece of the PLC and then to annex even more. She initiated the 1st Partition and got the best part of the spoils.

Meanwhile Russia's logistics are still shit at this time. It was hard for Russia to get to East Prussia in the Seven Years War.

Really? They just marched across the PLC (and Courland, IIRC) and kept doing that for the following years.

While I wouldn't put it past the russians to get an army to Schleswig-Holstein once or twice, and they'd probably beat the Danish army, but long term support?

The Duchy had its own army (Peter III had detachment of it as his personal bodyguards) and it is not like there would be a need for a permanent big military presence: everybody would know that attacking the Duchy means serious business. Besides, the was Baltic fleet could get there reasonably fast. So who would going to attack it prior to the Napoleonic Wars?

Very much doubt it. Schleswig-Holstein was 750~ miles from Russian territory, and the Baltic isn't a clear solution to this as the Danes have a respectable navy and the Russian navy wasn't able to relieve the logistical situation of the Russians in East Prussia during the 7YW.

And, after being beaten once, Denmark is going to keep trying time and again and keep suffering the human and financial losses? They could ill afford the OTL war which Peter was planning to fight.

As for the supplies, why in you opinion Russians had been bent on taking Kolberg? Just for the fun of it or because it was going to be used as a supply base?

What you wrote about East Prussia is only formally correct. Apraxin retreated from Eastern Prussia citing supply problems but everybody knew that this was a political move caused by worsening (at that time) health of Empress Elizabeth. He was arrested and died from a stroke during interrogation. After which, Russian troops entered area again and had been operating well beyond it for years.

Overall I imagine that the Russians could probably take it, but would inevitably lose it. It's a small duchy, too far from the vast russian manpower. With at least four states between them, two of them major ones (Prussia and the PLC, with Mecklenburg and Swedish Pomerania depending on their route).

PLC was in such a state that I'm not even sure if anybody seriously asked for their agreement to the passage of the Russian troops. Prussia, even in OTL, remined a friendly state or an ally for the rest of the XVIII and most of the XIX century.

The real question is to whom and when could it lose territory. The only serious candidate is Prussia/Germany at the time of unification. Taking into an account that at this time Russia was Prussian close ally, the loss would be a part of some friendly agreement.

Sweden isn't really in any condition to aid overly much under the party politics of Adolf Frederick. Russia had tried blocking the Oresund during the 7YW, so I doubt Britain will like Russia having ports so close to the Oresund even if Peter III saved the European front with his turn.

But Britain would hardly be able to do anything practical about this issue so its unhappiness could be safely disregarded. Not to mention that no reason is given for such unhappiness. The Brits did not mind Russian expansion(s) at the Swedish expense and they did not have any sentimental attachments to the Danes.

So Denmark will likely receive subsidies. Any forces in Schleswig-Holstein will be ground down. Russia's Baltic Fleet will be battling the Danish fleet, and Denmark will be closing the Oresund for Russian trade.

There are 2 fundamental misunderstandings of the situation:

(a) If Denmark risks the war, Russian reinforcements would come: Prussia was not going to risk military confrontation with Russia to save the Danes. Which means that Denmark would not risk the war.

(b) Part about "closing the Oresund for Russian trade" would be important if it was not so funny: all the way to the time of the French Revolution ALL trade with Russia on Baltics had been conducted by the British ships (you can read the book of Comte Segur, French Ambassador at the court of Catherine II). This applies even to the French imports/exports. ;) So you may figure out the British position and affiliation in such a conflict.
 
There is no need to station the Russian troops in the Duchy permanently: there are Holsteinian troops.

But the LONG TERM consequences, providing Russian emperors are still maintaining the union, are very interesting. How about the Kiel Canal for the starters? Or possible Russian-German arrangements at the time of the German Unification (they are allies at that time)?

If Holstein is in personal union with Russia, that would mean that if the Bismarkian structure is still the model he builds the Reich on the Czar would be one of its subordinate Dukes and, therefore, at least a partial vassal of the Kaiser. If the 100 years war taught us anything, that can have some interesting knock on effects: I imagine Russia would use its position to prevent the Imperial structure from further centeralizing in order to keep the German state neutered as a potential threat and tool of Prussian power projection. I expect to see the component Kingdoms more autonomous as a result and joint Imperial projects like the Navy given a lower priority.
 
If Holstein is in personal union with Russia, that would mean that if the Bismarkian structure is still the model he builds the Reich on the Czar would be one of its subordinate Dukes and, therefore, at least a partial vassal of the Kaiser.

As you understand, this would not be considered an acceptable option. IMO, the most probable scenario would be earlier transfer of the Duchy to one of their German relatives (say, Oldenburgs or even Hohenzolerns). This would allow to avoid the embarrassing situation without losing any prestige.


If the 100 years war taught us anything, that can have some interesting knock on effects: I imagine Russia would use its position to prevent the Imperial structure from further centeralizing in order to keep the German state neutered as a potential threat and tool of Prussian power projection. I expect to see the component Kingdoms more autonomous as a result and joint Imperial projects like the Navy given a lower priority.

I see what you mean but IMO, this implies a much greater Russian involvement in the German affairs than Holstein-Gottorp-Romanovs had been willing or able to exercise. Also keep in mind that Nicholas I was married to the daughter of Frederick William III of Prussia and that all the way to mid-1870's Russia and Prussia had been quite friendly.
 
Again I don't see the Danish king just giving Schleswig-Holstein away, and Russia have no friends, who can enforce such a treaty on Denmark. If Russia want Schleswig-Holstein, it will have to take it on it own, and I have argued why this eould be problematic for Russia. It's only made worse by the fact, that This us a pretty naked act of aggression against a state which have the better claim, and haven't really made any action which justify this attack. This would pretty much compare to Donald Trump declaring war on Canada with the casus belli being gaining total control over the former Oregon territory.

I
 
Again I don't see the Danish king just giving Schleswig-Holstein away, and Russia have no friends, who can enforce such a treaty on Denmark.

I'm afraid that your vision of the situation is a little bit confused. Russia has army of 40K+ assembled in Pomerania with the explicit purpose to conquer Shlezwig from Denmark. Prussia is Russian ally and Britain is friendly: in the 7YW Russia was not at war with Britain, now it is allied with Prussia, which is British ally. Denmark has an army of 20K+ but no money to maintain it over any considerable period of time (it threatened in late June to invade the free city of Hamburg to force a loan from it). Add to this some trifles like commander of the Russian army being one of the best generals of the 7YW and his army the veterans of the 7YW, which managed to score victories over Prussians.

Now, you can keep repeating that you don't see <whatever> but Russian chances of conquering Shlezwig and threatening/occupying continental part of Denmark are quite good. I'd say much better than 50%.

If Russia want Schleswig-Holstein, it will have to take it on it own,

Which would be a minor problem, taking into account difference in the numbers and quality of the troops and leadership.

and I have argued why this eould be problematic for Russia.

Unfortunately, your arguments are hardly reflective of the situation on a ground as existed at that time.

It's only made worse by the fact, that This us a pretty naked act of aggression against a state which have the better claim, and haven't really made any action which justify this attack.

As I mentioned earlier, your understanding of the situation is somewhat confused: Danish threat of Hamburg was considered an act of aggression.
 
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