WIF Russia abstains from the 7YW

The official reasons and goals for the Russian anti-Prussian policy (which eventually led to the Russian entry into what became the 7YW) had been formulated in a protocol of the "Conference at the Imperial Court" (basically, council of the ministers) dated by March 15, 1756. I finally found the text at http://www.vostlit.info/Texts/Dokum...ilet_vojna/Materialy_russ_arm_flot/1-20/2.htm

The stated goal was not to allow further strengthening of the King of Prussia by cutting down his forces to such a degree that it will not be a danger to the Russian Empire.

Due to the obvious (to the "conference") fact that Russia can't fight Prussia alone, the Court at Vienna had to be convinced to join the effort.

Poland must be prepared to the fact of the future passage of the Russian troops through it territory and, as a reward for a good behavior, it should be told that because her imperial majesty does not look for any territorial gains for herself and just wants to weaken the king of Prussia, Poland will be rewarded with the Kingdom or Prussia (in context: "Eastern Prussia") if the Russian troops manage to conquer it. (Item 4 of the "methods" part of the Protocol).

In the unitemized part of the protocol dedicated to the general possibilities ("one can't either predict or guarantee the success on the scope we desire") were listed potential options like return Silesia to Austria (as one of the mays to weaken Fritz) and territorial swap with the PLC: as a gratitude for delivery of the Eastern Prussia the PLC may give Russia Courlad and the territories "which will eliminate the constant problems we have with them now" and perhaps even "a way to connect the commerce of the Baltic and Black Seas thus taking control over almost all Levantine trade" (taking into an account that at that time the PLC did not have an access to the Black Sea and that Russia at that time did not have any sizable merchant navy anywhere, this gives an idea about the general competence of the "Conference").

While superficially reasonable, the underlying assumption (Prussia representing a danger to the Russian Empire) was all smoke and mirrors because Prussia would not and could not attack Russian Empire. What all that lofty talk really meant is that growing Prussian strength makes it potential Russian competitor for the influence in the PLC (which Russian government already considered as more or less its own backyard).

Not to mention that as soon as conquest of the Eastern Prussia became a reality (somewhat to the Russian surprise: nobody expected that Frederick would leave it practically undefended) its population was immediately forced to swear loyalty to Elizabeth and that Russian operations during the later part of the 7YW had been heavily concentrated on providing a base in Pomerania (just to give it away?) instead of being directly engaged against Frederick (one of the reasons that allowed him to somewhat restore his positions).

An additional (and perhaps more important) consideration was Elizabeth's personal dislike of Frederick who was making (quite correct) remarks about her mental abilities. She was at that point supported by her Chancellor, Bestuzhev-Ryumin, who (as a man of principle) was taking the bribes only from the Austrians (and, IIRC, the Brits). "Conference" consisted mostly of the carefully selected "yes men" some of whom, like Count Shuvalov (supplier of pretty much everything including Russian artillery), had been interested in a military conflict.

What if, Fritz managed to control his tongue AND the issue of his potential designs regarding the PLC was not considered by Elizabeth and her ministers as important as it was in OTL? After all, security of the PLC could be guaranteed by the explicit defensive alliance.

So Russia is out of the picture while all other European powers are happily fighting each other. What are the possible outcomes in Europe?
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
It seems to me this takes a lot off of Prussia's plate and perhaps allows it to actually score a win and territorial gain. Granted, Austria is more ready to fight this time and will do better than in the previous war, and it together with France still have a lot of attraction to anti-Prussian allies, Fritz will have the smarts to make the most of any advantage.
 
The official reasons and goals for the Russian anti-Prussian policy (which eventually led to the Russian entry into what became the 7YW) had been formulated in a protocol of the "Conference at the Imperial Court" (basically, council of the ministers) dated by March 15, 1756. I finally found the text at http://www.vostlit.info/Texts/Dokum...ilet_vojna/Materialy_russ_arm_flot/1-20/2.htm

The stated goal was not to allow further strengthening of the King of Prussia by cutting down his forces to such a degree that it will not be a danger to the Russian Empire.

Due to the obvious (to the "conference") fact that Russia can't fight Prussia alone, the Court at Vienna had to be convinced to join the effort.

Poland must be prepared to the fact of the future passage of the Russian troops through it territory and, as a reward for a good behavior, it should be told that because her imperial majesty does not look for any territorial gains for herself and just wants to weaken the king of Prussia, Poland will be rewarded with the Kingdom or Prussia (in context: "Eastern Prussia") if the Russian troops manage to conquer it. (Item 4 of the "methods" part of the Protocol).

In the unitemized part of the protocol dedicated to the general possibilities ("one can't either predict or guarantee the success on the scope we desire") were listed potential options like return Silesia to Austria (as one of the mays to weaken Fritz) and territorial swap with the PLC: as a gratitude for delivery of the Eastern Prussia the PLC may give Russia Courlad and the territories "which will eliminate the constant problems we have with them now" and perhaps even "a way to connect the commerce of the Baltic and Black Seas thus taking control over almost all Levantine trade" (taking into an account that at that time the PLC did not have an access to the Black Sea and that Russia at that time did not have any sizable merchant navy anywhere, this gives an idea about the general competence of the "Conference").

While superficially reasonable, the underlying assumption (Prussia representing a danger to the Russian Empire) was all smoke and mirrors because Prussia would not and could not attack Russian Empire. What all that lofty talk really meant is that growing Prussian strength makes it potential Russian competitor for the influence in the PLC (which Russian government already considered as more or less its own backyard).

Not to mention that as soon as conquest of the Eastern Prussia became a reality (somewhat to the Russian surprise: nobody expected that Frederick would leave it practically undefended) its population was immediately forced to swear loyalty to Elizabeth and that Russian operations during the later part of the 7YW had been heavily concentrated on providing a base in Pomerania (just to give it away?) instead of being directly engaged against Frederick (one of the reasons that allowed him to somewhat restore his positions).

An additional (and perhaps more important) consideration was Elizabeth's personal dislike of Frederick who was making (quite correct) remarks about her mental abilities. She was at that point supported by her Chancellor, Bestuzhev-Ryumin, who (as a man of principle) was taking the bribes only from the Austrians (and, IIRC, the Brits). "Conference" consisted mostly of the carefully selected "yes men" some of whom, like Count Shuvalov (supplier of pretty much everything including Russian artillery), had been interested in a military conflict.

What if, Fritz managed to control his tongue AND the issue of his potential designs regarding the PLC was not considered by Elizabeth and her ministers as important as it was in OTL? After all, security of the PLC could be guaranteed by the explicit defensive alliance.

So Russia is out of the picture while all other European powers are happily fighting each other. What are the possible outcomes in Europe?
Austria probably loses the remainder of Silesia and Saxony's independence is probably good as gone, and that last bit may cause a bit of a headache in St. Petersburg (now that the [very angry] Wettins are looking to set up shop in Poland).
 
Austria probably loses the remainder of Silesia and Saxony's independence is probably good as gone, and that last bit may cause a bit of a headache in St. Petersburg (now that the [very angry] Wettins are looking to set up shop in Poland).

Indeed. Saxony is occupied by Prussia and, unlike OTL, there is no power capable of negotiating its independence.

The "angry" part assumes that Russia had some obligations to the Wettins, which was not the case: in this scenario Saxony is not even Russian ally.

They did not amounted for too much in the PLC even with the resources of Saxony so they'll amount to even less. Admittedly, August III would be forced to stay in the PLC but what exactly would he be able to achieve there when the Sejm was paralyzed by the political feuding between the House of Czartoryski and the Potocki?

The main difference from the Russian and PLC perspective is a possible succession by his son IF Catherine II by whatever reason prefers him to Stanisław Augustus. Is there any serious reason to assume that as a king Frederick Christian would be able to exercise a greater independence with the Russian troops in the PLC and Repnin controlling the Sejm?

If anything, a stronger victorious Prussia is going to be a greater danger to the PLC than it was in OTL after the 7YW. And a sole potential protector of the PLC in that schema is Russian empire. So why would he be trying to be a headache for St. Petersburg?
 
The "angry" part assumes that Russia had some obligations to the Wettins, which was not the case: in this scenario Saxony is not even Russian ally.
Not angry at the Russians, just generally ticked that they lost their ancestral throne.

As for what they could achieve, not much. I literally meant headache, they'd be an annoyance (perhaps a persistent one, perhaps a very minor one) but not a crisis by any means.
 
Not angry at the Russians, just generally ticked that they lost their ancestral throne.

As for what they could achieve, not much. I literally meant headache, they'd be an annoyance (perhaps a persistent one, perhaps a very minor one) but not a crisis by any means.

Thanks for clarification. In that sense they (if son of August III is selected as a king of the PLC) would probably be a headache, just as in OTL was Stanislaw Augustus: you are making someone a king in expectation that he is capable of dealing at least with the minor problems just to find out that he can't and your government must spend time, money and military force on solving these problems. Small wonder that, when they met again, Catherine was quite cold to her former boyfriend. And FC would not have even that type of a personal relation.

The interesting question is what he is going to do if he is NOT elected a king after his father's death. How much of a personal wealth does he have?
 
It seems to me this takes a lot off of Prussia's plate and perhaps allows it to actually score a win and territorial gain. Granted, Austria is more ready to fight this time and will do better than in the previous war, and it together with France still have a lot of attraction to anti-Prussian allies, Fritz will have the smarts to make the most of any advantage.

I'm tempted to agree but, for the sake of objectivity, let's look at the whole situation from a slightly different angle.

While a lot had been said about the Russian participation in the war, its actual effect had been more or less restricted to the big Prussian losses at Kunersdorf (and prior to this at Zorndorf), Russian occupation of Pomerania and Eastern Prussia and general devastation caused by the troops. After Kunersdorf cooperation between Russians and Austrians was steadily deteriorating and eventually almost completely disintegrated.

Now, if we assume that there is no Russian factor at all, Austrians are, of course, in a worse position but this does not mean that they are doomed to lose. Fieldmarshal Daun was a skilled general who managed to defeat Frederick more than once and who never suffered a crushing defeat himself. The main problem was that he tended to be excessively cautious and tried to minimize the risks. He, himself, was aware of these shortcomings and an issue of his replacement was regularly discussed. The problem was absence of a suitable candidate: the only one available, Laudon, was a foreigner and Protestant (and not too aristocratic). With Daun still in charge the war is going on until the full exhaustion of both sides (perhaps it takes longer than in OTL) but by the end of it Fritz is forced to negotiate. Which means that he is probably returning Saxony (or at least its part) to the owner and getting some compensation.
 
In addition to Austria losing harder, TTL could also see them losing earlier, ie a shorter *Seven Years War*, which would have some interesting effects in its own right.
 
In addition to Austria losing harder, TTL could also see them losing earlier, ie a shorter *Seven Years War*, which would have some interesting effects in its own right.

Could that mean France could be left of something of New France? The first half of the Freach and Indian War was marked by Freach victories for the most part. It was the later half of the War that saw the British smash the Freach and the Wabanaki Confederacy.
 
In addition to Austria losing harder, TTL could also see them losing earlier, ie a shorter *Seven Years War*, which would have some interesting effects in its own right.

"Losing harder" implies that it lost in the OTL which was hardly the case. ;)
Actually, it could be other way around. The war could be longer because without the Russian participation and related Prussian losses it would take a longer time for both sides to fight each other to a complete exhaustion. Napoleonic-style victory (enemy is crushed in a series of battles and can't fight anymore) was not on a plate for either side so both Fritz and Daun keep maneuvering with the occasional battles that cause the big (or not too big) losses but not eliminate enemy's ability to keep fighting.

Fritz tends to be a greater risk taker (could afford it because he was not answering to anybody) but Daun is very competent in avoiding the risk and the time of Prussian easy victories like Rossbach and Leuthen is over, the new victories tend to be costly and from time to time the Austrians even manage to win the battles or to outmaneuver Fritz. Taking into an account great dependencies of the contemporary armies upon the supply systems, a lot could be achieved with a simple disruption of supplies like Laudon did at Domstadt - battle itself was not a "great" one but destruction of the supply convoy forced Frederick abandon siege of Olomouc and leave Moravia. At some point Maria Theresa ordered to make a medal honoring Fieldmarshal Daun with a telling motto: "keep winning by procrastinating".
 
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