Thanks to the early development of the national infantry and introduction of the shot and pike formations (and everything else including a competent leadership) France is winning the Italian Wars without a major Hapsburg opposition (distraction by the Ottomans, Reformation in Germany, early Dutch rebellion, bankruptcy of Fughers, early death of Gonsalvo de Cordoba, whatever).
There are 3 possible scenarios:
1. Conquest of Naples by Charles VIII holds (with or without Sicily).
2. Louis XII conquers and hold Naples (but not Sicily held by Spain) and Milan.
3. Francis I conquers and holds Milan.
What would be the long-term consequences for France, Italy and Europe in general?