Wiemar Germany Vs expantionist Soviet Union?

I was having a discussion with a friend of mine. She told me that even if Hitler and the Nazis never came to power in Germany, a Second World War, or at least a Major European war was inevitable, because if Hitler didn't start it Stalin would. We already know from OTL that Stalin was after the Baltic States and Finland at least. Hypothetically, if Stalin invaded Poland by himself, how would Wiemar Germany react? How would the West react to a Wiemar/Soviet war?
 
IMHO there would be pretty large probability this Germany pursues stronger ties with US inorder to counterbalance USSR. I would also expect them take active role in China where they would help KMT hoping to turn China into sufficient enough threat for Soviet Union that would make it impossible for Stalin to devote full attention to Europe. Eventually something akin to NATO will form but USSR will possibly much stronger than OTL, not having suffered WW2 scale destruction.
 
I was having a discussion with a friend of mine. She told me that even if Hitler and the Nazis never came to power in Germany, a Second World War, or at least a Major European war was inevitable, because if Hitler didn't start it Stalin would. We already know from OTL that Stalin was after the Baltic States and Finland at least. Hypothetically, if Stalin invaded Poland by himself, how would Wiemar Germany react? How would the West react to a Wiemar/Soviet war?

This is incredibley wrong. Stalin was, despite the stereotype of the blundering, paranoid expansionist, well versed in foreign politics and was very cautious about provoking a "western alliance" against the Soviet Union. Note that Stalin only expanded after Nazi Germany had been confirmed as a (Temporary) ally and would serve to distract the Allies until both sides were exhausted fighting one another. He has never foolish enough to try and make the Soviet Union even more of a pariah, especilaly when it was only just starting to resume normal economic and political relations with the rest of the world.
 

Glen

Moderator
True, he was more of an opportunist than a provacateur. However, it is my belief that Stalin wanted to see all of the former Russian Empire under the auspices of the Soviet Union, and if an opportunity appeared to present itself, he'd act.
 
True, he was more of an opportunist than a provacateur. However, it is my belief that Stalin wanted to see all of the former Russian Empire under the auspices of the Soviet Union, and if an opportunity appeared to present itself, he'd act.

Stalin's foreign policy represented a decisive shift from that of the Russian Empire in the early 20th and late 19th centuries. First and foremost Stalin never rekindled the idea of a unified Slavic Empire under Russian guidance, and indeed had little interest in the Balkans until they became possible Nazi allies. Further his goals were tailored to the current political situation rather than a rigid system; he took whatever targets of opportunity he could find, and more often than not used the excuse of those regions being part of the Russian Empire as a casus belli, though in reality he never particularly cared, as he occupied Northern Bukovina which had never been part of the Russian Empire. The only major parallel was his goal of seizing Constantinople, though his reasons had to do with actual strategic value while the Tsars more often than not saw it as a symbolic target, albeit they also recognized its use as a warm water port.

What you're suggesting is that Stalin would risk the Soviet Union with destruction to achieve a rigid series of objectives, which goes against how he operated. If western Europe remained stable then he would attack the pariah state of Imperial Japan, which I doubt anyone would condemn. A war that expands Soviet interests abroad, defeats a regional rival, and avoids the risk of a coalition against the Soviet Union was the only kind he would accept.
 
What you're suggesting is that Stalin would risk the Soviet Union with destruction to achieve a rigid series of objectives, which goes against how he operated. If western Europe remained stable then he would attack the pariah state of Imperial Japan, which I doubt anyone would condemn. A war that expands Soviet interests abroad, defeats a regional rival, and avoids the risk of a coalition against the Soviet Union was the only kind he would accept.

Indeed. One thing people often forget is that hte Soviets came to power after the old guys lost a war. They remembered that, though...

I should note that the West was quite capable of misreading Stalin, though. I would play up fears of a paranoid French fasicst state, rather than focus on a crazy Stalin, if you want a war with Russia.
 
Indeed. One thing people often forget is that hte Soviets came to power after the old guys lost a war. They remembered that, though...

I should note that the West was quite capable of misreading Stalin, though. I would play up fears of a paranoid French fasicst state, rather than focus on a crazy Stalin, if you want a war with Russia.

It's a bit hard to expand France's foreign interests that far east when it will be mroe focused on Germany Weimar Germany, especially when Weimar was Soviet Russia's only major ally in the world. I could see some bluster and a refusal to recognize the Soviets as a state, but beyond that France was very much internally focused in the 1920s and 1930s due more to economic and demographic instability along with divisiveness in the government; even when it achieved a communist majority it failed to have a coherent foreign policy.
 
I'm going to go ahead and echo the general sediment of this thread - Stalin was a very, very cautious man. However, were we to see some event that sufficently distracts the West - in OTL it was WW2, ITTL it can be a worse Great Depression, some sort of massive natural disaster, etc - it's not hard to see Stalin manufacturing some excuse to take the Baltic states under his wing and begin racheting up the pressure on Weimar Germany.
 

oberdada

Gone Fishin'
First of all, the city the republik was named after is called Weimar.

Please consider, that the German Kommunist Party was loyal to Stalin and quite strong.

Attacking Poland without having an understanding with Germany beforehand would be to risky for Stalin.

For most German politicians right of the Social democrats, another Soviet-Polish war would have been a blessing.
It would offer the oppurtunity of gaining lost territorry back from Poland, and on the other hand give a good reason for rearmament at least on a smaler scale.
France and Britain would probably be willing to renegotiate those parts of the VErsailles treaty.
 
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