Wiemar Germany Continues and Italy Starts WW2

Okay, so this thread's subject is pretty much exactly what it says on the tin: how could we make it so Wiemar Germany continue while Fascist Italy kicks off WW2 instead?

Look, I know Wiemar Germany was a failed state, ridden with poverty and instability, but it might have been stable enough to keep on going despite its problems if we butterflied it into being slightly more successful.

We also might have to wank Italy quite a bit to make them capable of kick-starting a world war, but perhaps in TTL they have time to prepare without a noisy upstairs neighbor starting the war early?

In TTL, Nationalist Spain probably still wins the Spanish Civil war, but will probably not remain neutral, instead joining TTL's equivalent of the Axis.

The war would probably start with Italy invading one of its "new Roman Empire" territories, perhaps Greece, or, for the sake of parallelism, making an agreement with the Soviet Union and invading Turkey (which is probably very unlikely)

So, anyways, here's how the war would probably be set up:
  • The Allies: Britain, France, Germany, maybe Turkey (if Italy invades them), maybe Poland (if the Soviet Union is in TTL's Axis Equivalent), maybe the USA, maybe the Soviet Union (if Italy doesn't make a pact with them, or does but betrays them like Germany otl)
  • TTL's Axis Equivalent: Italy, Spain, maybe Poland (if the Soviet Union is in the Allies), maybe Japan, maybe the Soviet Union (if Spain can get over the Soviets supporting the Republicans in the Spanish Civil War and Italy pursues some kind of treaty, non-agression pact, or full-on alliance with them)
Anyways, how do you guys think a TL like this would come to pass? How do you think the war would play out? What would the consequences of it be for the post-war world? Is this even slightly probable?
 

nbcman

Donor
Very improbable. The Italians IOTL only jumped in to WW2 when they thought they could get some gains on the cheap since France was collapsing and the British were (as perceived by Mussolini) going to come to terms. Odds are Italian adventurism will end after Ethiopia and maybe Spain without a strong European threat like Nazi Germany. If the Soviets were a big enough threat, the Fascist Italians would partner with France, the UK and other European states to block Soviet expansionism.
 
An Italian loss in Ethiopia could see Fascist Italy becoming more aggressive in Europe, particularly in the Balkans where an earlier invasion of Albania could be launched and from there, you see the Italians invading Yugoslavia - same could be said for either Greece or Turkey. Extensive Italian support for the Nationalists during the Spanish Civil War results in the Nationalist government becoming a puppet of Rome who annexes the Balearic Islands in the process, with neither the Republicans nor the Nationalists able to oppose this. Increasing tensions between the Anglo-French Alliance and Italo-Spanish Axis turn into war through some incident such as an Italian invasion of Yugoslavia, Greece and/or Turkey which leads to more countries that become involved over time.

Thoughts?
 

BigBlueBox

Banned
An Italian loss in Ethiopia could see Fascist Italy becoming more aggressive in Europe, particularly in the Balkans where an earlier invasion of Albania could be launched and from there, you see the Italians invading Yugoslavia - same could be said for either Greece or Turkey. Extensive Italian support for the Nationalists during the Spanish Civil War results in the Nationalist government becoming a puppet of Rome who annexes the Balearic Islands in the process, with neither the Republicans nor the Nationalists able to oppose this. Increasing tensions between the Anglo-French Alliance and Italo-Spanish Axis turn into war through some incident such as an Italian invasion of Yugoslavia, Greece and/or Turkey which leads to more countries that become involved over time.

Thoughts?
An Italian loss in Ethiopia will turn Italy into the laughingstock of Europe and result in Mussolini being overthrown.
 
Nope, either the Grand Fascist Council replaces Mussolini with Italo Balbo or the King and the army remove Fascism entirely.
You're probably right but could Italy become more aggressive as a result of their loss in Ethiopia and turn towards expanding influence in the Balkans?
 
What if instead of failing in Ethiopia, the Italians are more successful, making them more confident in their capabilities? Confident enough that they start messing around in the Balkans, perhaps with an invasion of Yugoslavia, probably in concert with Bulgaria and maybe Hungary.

There is another recent thread about such a scenario, about an Italian invasion of Yugoslavia. I actually doubt France and Britain would go to war over this, though Germany may use the opportunity to claim Austria, Weimar or not.

But lets assume France and Britain (and maybe Germany) declare war. For this to turn into a ‚world war‘ you would need at least one more major power on Italy‘s side, otherwise this is gonna be a very short war, and only if Mussolini isn‘t overthrown immediately. The only power left is the Soviet Union. Though how and why they would get involved i have no idea.
 
The rise of fascism in Germany bolstered Mussolini who prior to it, considered himself vital to the post World War I alliance under the Versailles Treaty. He even considered himself responsible for thwarting Hitlers' attempts at annexing Austria prior to the Anschluss by sending Italian troops to the border to help Austria. If he could gain Ethiopia and some concessions for some hegemony or partial thereof in the Mediterranean, I think he does not be the jump start to Word War II.

I also see if he fails at it, yes the King and army would have no problem removing him.
 
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