That's hardly possible to say without further elaboration on the actual POD - If we don't know how Zoroastrianism came to remain influential, how are we to know which cultures will even be present?
lets say muhammad got killed early on in the founding of the faith..islam survived, but was a minute religion, with various factions rather than a unifying superpower like otl
So for all intents and purposes no Islam.
no iot survives, but without the thrust it gained...you could have his death after his followers split in two groups oto avoid persecuation by meccan tribes at the time, so islam survives int he second group without muhammad and the main group splinters into various islamic based faiths
Any "Islam" in that situation would be at best a cult so minor as to be irrelevant.
It may or may not dissolve immediately, but its certainly not going to be something in a position to endure or attract new followers - so it might as well not exist.
What's going to bind the community together? Who will lead? Its hopeless.
More likely for Manichaeism (coming from West) to replace or compete with Zoroastrianism, if in Persia there is no conversion to Islam.
Is there any evidence that the religion spread beyond the elite before the collapse of the Khaganate? After all, the Uyghur are not Manichaeists now.Manichaeism was the state religion of the Uyghur Khaganate in 763 and it had has its zone of influence in central Asia.
There is one MAJOR problem...
Buddhism was actually THE religion of major portions of central asia. Sogdiana and all.
There is a wall painting by example, famous - an asian monk meeting a 'whitey' colleague...
Let us not forget,that worship of the Eternal Blue Sky of Tengri from the Caspian Sea to the Pacific is OTL.
Well, maybe I should have added of the 'sendentary peoples of central asia' - tengrism was the native belives of turkish and mongolians 'pagans'.
Pagans? Could many of those people be considered rural? I suppose certain areas such as in the inner Transoxiana.