WI: Zimmerman telegram not intercepted

How would the international situation have been different in WWI had the U.S. not intercepted the Zimmerman telegram? Would Mexico have aided the Germans? Would the U.S. Have still entered when it did?
 
I sincerely doubt Mexico would have been dumb enough to try to invade the US. They would lose quickly and brutally, as their leadership knew they would (even if their wasn't a rebellion going on) and they also knew the Germans would never be able to send them significant aid due to the Royal Navy blockade or Germany.

Just a stupid telegram to send, as there was no way it would do anything even if it wasn't intercepted.

Gotta pity Mexico, when its not being beat up by its neighbor, it seems to be tearing itself apart. Sometimes even both at the same time.
 
It was the German decision for unrestricted submarine warfare, not the Zimmerman Telegram, that led to the US entering the war. (It is true that previous controversies with Germany on submarine warfare had not led to the US joining the war, but it has to be remembered that prior to February 1, 1917, only three American lives were lost *on American ships.*)
 
The Zimmermann Telegram wasn't a request for war right now, it was a request for war if America declares it on Germany. That fact was highly obscured in the press at the time.

The one thing it could do is give Germany enough time to decide to end the sub attacks before they create enough anger to cause a DoW. If they don't end unrestricted sub warfare soon though then little changes other then America is closer to 2/3rds invested emotionally in the war rather then close to 100%.

America 2/3rds invested in the war is still enough to break the stalemate though with less anti German hate in the U.S. Wilson may do more to keep the ToV from being a complete screwing of Germany.
 
Mexico likely declines. They might even turn around and give us a copy as a diplomatic maneuver. If they do decide to invade, they might reach farther than most people think but ultimate get beaten back and lose Sonora, Chihuahua, and Baja in the process.
 
Mexico wouldn't have accepted. For all his flaws, Carranza was smart enough to know it was suicide.

That said, if he did accept it would have slowed US entry for quite a while. It took them OTL nearly a year to get ready for the war, it would take them at least that long against Mexico, without adding the guerrilla warfare and all that.
 
Mexico likely declines. They might even turn around and give us a copy as a diplomatic maneuver. If they do decide to invade, they might reach farther than most people think but ultimate get beaten back and lose Sonora, Chihuahua, and Baja in the process.

Nah, relations between the U.S. and Mexico at the the time were toxic enough that they would decline, but not burn their bridges with Germany in case they won.
 
Zimmerman would've probably done something dumb afterwards. Lets face it, his experience in the US was a train ride over two days through the country. He thought the German-Americans would go against the US in case of war, he used a cable that was only to be used by US Diplomats.

Germany should count its blessing he didnt fuck up even larger than in OTL.
 
Mexico invading America was a total pipe dream, Mexico was in the middle of an ongoing civil war at the time.
 
Absolutely, the Germans failure to consider that all the trans-Atlantic cables on the Europe side passed through London has to be one of the most idiotic SIGINT own goals of modern times.

Admittedly it was all coded, but having said that the UK had one of the most professional code breakers in the world at the time.
 
Absolutely, the Germans failure to consider that all the trans-Atlantic cables on the Europe side passed through London has to be one of the most idiotic SIGINT own goals of modern times.

Admittedly it was all coded, but having said that the UK had one of the most professional code breakers in the world at the time.
As I said, the main failure of Germany in the first world war was having the Junkers have control over diplomacy. German and American diplomats really did try to keep America out (there's a heartbreaking scene where the German representative and the US Secretary meet after it was revealed Zimmerman had used a line only meant for him).
 
Top