WI: Zhili Clique unifies China?

The Zhili Clique was a Chinese warlord clique whose political power flourished in the Central China Plain in the period between 1920 and 1924. It had the support of Anglo-American business interests, and its army was led by the capable commander Wu Peifu (first Chinese man to have appeared on the cover of TIME Magazine). However, as Wu was engaged in war against the Fengtian clique in 1924, rival warlords staged a coup in Beijing and replaced his puppet president, Cao Kun, with the pro-Japanese Duan Qirui. Wu lost his momentum as a result of this, and hunkered down in Central China until he was defeated by the Kuomintang in their Northern Expedition.
But what if his puppet government in Beijing had not been overthrown in the middle of his campaigns?
Could Wu Peifu's clique, rather than the KMT, have unified China? Considering his center of power, could he have taken over the province of Shandong and held it more stably than the KMT?
 
I think the Japanese would intervene to support the Fengtian clique in Manchuria and that could lead to a Sino-Japanese War in the 1920s. The Zhili will still have to content with unrest from the KMT and their allies in the South of China so this could end up with a situation where the KMT is aligned with the Japanese and the Fengtian against the Zhili.
 

raharris1973

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I think the Japanese would intervene to support the Fengtian clique in Manchuria and that could lead to a Sino-Japanese War in the 1920s. The Zhili will still have to content with unrest from the KMT and their allies in the South of China so this could end up with a situation where the KMT is aligned with the Japanese and the Fengtian against the Zhili.

What attitude would the British and US take towards the Japanese intervention at this time?

And what about the Soviet Union. If it opposes Japanese moves, and the KMT is pro-Japanese maybe that scotches the United Front. Or maybe Borodin convinces Sun to try for a loyal united front with Zhili forces.

Or possibly the Soviets consider the British and Americans more of a threat than the Japanese and actually favor the Japanese more, and encourage the CCP-KMT United Front to do the same.
 
What attitude would the British and US take towards the Japanese intervention at this time?

I think both would be opposed to Japan but won't go to war. Sanctions and censure from the League of Nations but nothing more.
And what about the Soviet Union. If it opposes Japanese moves, and the KMT is pro-Japanese maybe that scotches the United Front. Or maybe Borodin convinces Sun to try for a loyal united front with Zhili forces.
I think the Soviets would just let the two weaken each other and wait until an opportunity arises to occupy Manchuria for itself. If the Japanese are forced to withdraw from China by the Anglo-Americans, maybe the Soviets could become the new patron for the Fengtian Clique.
Or possibly the Soviets consider the British and Americans more of a threat than the Japanese and actually favor the Japanese more, and encourage the CCP-KMT United Front to do the same.
Possibly, but any alliance would be temporary since Japan is a more immediate threat to the Soviets than the Anglo-Americans.
 

raharris1973

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When do you see the Zhili versus Japan war starting in this case? 1925 or 1926?

I wonder if things get seen as a Japanese invasion if some share of Fengtian and KMT allies and underlings rally to Zhili because it feels more patriotic and the cannot stomach looking like Japanese stooges if the Zhili cause looks the most patriotic.

On western responses or non responses, you mentioned sanctions. Japan was trading a lot with the west in the 1920s and might feel the bite of embargoes or boycotts more, because unlike the Depression era, they have not lost western consumer markets (all the flapper gals wearing Japanese silk hosiery at the time).

Meanwhile Britain and the US could be more inclined to consider embargoes or boycotts because they are not consumed with Bank collapses like they were in the 1930s.
 
When do you see the Zhili versus Japan war starting in this case? 1925 or 1926?
Either year is realistic depending on how the Fengtian-Zhili war plays out.
I wonder if things get seen as a Japanese invasion if some share of Fengtian and KMT allies and underlings rally to Zhili because it feels more patriotic and the cannot stomach looking like Japanese stooges if the Zhili cause looks the most patriotic.
It would definitely boost the legitimacy of the Zhili government if they can portray themselves as being the only faction that is actually defending China from an external threat.
On western responses or non responses, you mentioned sanctions. Japan was trading a lot with the west in the 1920s and might feel the bite of embargoes or boycotts more, because unlike the Depression era, they have not lost western consumer markets (all the flapper gals wearing Japanese silk hosiery at the time).

Meanwhile Britain and the US could be more inclined to consider embargoes or boycotts because they are not consumed with Bank collapses like they were in the 1930s.
Exactly, Japan's economy is very much integrated into global trade so it is very vulnerable to sanctions. Without any allies since the Anglo-Japanese alliance expired earlier in the decade, Japan will have no choice but to back down and possibly lose all their concessions in China.
 
What did you have in mind when you started this, GB?
Some crazy scenario down the line whereas a much stronger China ends up aligning with Nazi Germany, which, in turn, influences China to become a fascist (neo-legalist?) state with Wu Peifu at the helm. Don't know how possible that is, however.
 

raharris1973

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Some crazy scenario down the line whereas a much stronger China ends up aligning with Nazi Germany, which, in turn, influences China to become a fascist (neo-legalist?) state with Wu Peifu at the helm. Don't know how possible that is, however.

This is very creative. Well I feel like a Zhili led government would be if not anti Japanese or anti Soviet, at least wary of the the influence of either.

The Zhili reputedly has closest ties to British and American interests. However, I could see a Beiyang regime, indeed any kind of Chinese mom communist regime, become friendly with Germany (whether Weimar or Nazi) and Italy for the same reasons Chiang Kaishek collaborated with them for a time- economic complementarity and their weakness as territorial powers in Asia.

As for Fascism I could imagine it might become popular with Beiyang rulers, especially since they will be authoritarian anyway and the Great Depression will dim the luster of Anglo-American democracy.

As for neo-Legalism, I have to ask if Legalism was ever considered a living tradition rather than historical curiosity after Confucian scholar Gentry became predominant.

I have a feeling that because of fascism’s characteristic conservatism, any Chinese Fascism would claim the

Confucian tradition as its inspiration, even if their application resembled Legalism.

Chiang’s KMT had its Fascistic elements, which it wore more proudly in the 30s than any other time. The “New Life” movement was sponsored by the regime and claimed Confucian inspiration. The regime also had paramilitary Blueshirt thugs. They used a Fuhrer like term for the leader and Chiang preferred to speak of the Chinese race rather than nation.
 
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As for Fascism I could imagine it might become popular with Beiyang rulers, especially since they will be authoritarian anyway and the Great Depression will dim the luster of Anglo-American democracy.

As for neo-Legalism, I have to ask if Legalism was ever considered a living tradition rather than historical curiosity after Confucian scholar Gentry became predominant.

I have a feeling that because of fascism’s characteristic conservatism, any Chinese Fascism would claim the Confucian tradition as its inspiration, even if their application resembled Legalism.

Chiang’s KMT has its Fascistic element, which it wore more proudly in the 30s than any other time. The “New Life” movement was sponsored by the regime and claimed Confucian inspiration. The regime also had paramilitary Blueshirt thugs. They used a Fuhrer like term for the leader and Chiang preferred to speak of the Chinese race rather than nation.
I've been thinking some more about this scenario, and i may add that it'd be more logical for Chinese fascism to adopt both ideologies -- Confucianism as a means of cultural continuity, and Legalism for its easy comparison with fascist economic and political thought. They both came from China anyway.
 
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