During the 78 days of NATO bombardment, little damage was done to Yugoslavia's military capabilities. What if Milosevic decided not to agree to NATO's demands? And what if even after ground troops were threatened, Milosevic didn't give, thinking it would be a perfect opportunity to bleed NATO out, especially since Yugoslav forces in Kosovo had taken very little real damage?
WI:Yugoslavia doesn't give up in 1999?
- Thread starter Armored Diplomacy
- Start date
I have observed myself the little damage inflicted on the Yugoslav military (at least in the South Kossovo region). But at the same time I observed the vast damage in infrastructure, together with the high emotion of the albanian-speaking population and the determination of some of them to carry on the struggle, thus making the life of the Serbs in the region much perilous. At the same time I guess that the Milosevic regime was not that beloved; combine that with all the trouble of the Serbian population and the destruction of infrastructure, such as bridges, roads and railways, power plants etc, it's easy to see why Milosevic chose to give in.
Most of it though, I believe it was his own preservation. He feared that if he continued his stance, he would be overthrown and even arrested and put in trial for his actions in Yugoslavia since 1991. And I guess he was right!
Honestly I can't see something different than OTL. If Milosevic persisted the NATO would keep on bombing for some more months. I don't believe they would try something on the ground, though, not only for the military jeopardy of such an effort, but also because they' d have to launch such an operation from Albania, which would complicate things a lot for the Balkan affairs in general.
Most of it though, I believe it was his own preservation. He feared that if he continued his stance, he would be overthrown and even arrested and put in trial for his actions in Yugoslavia since 1991. And I guess he was right!
Honestly I can't see something different than OTL. If Milosevic persisted the NATO would keep on bombing for some more months. I don't believe they would try something on the ground, though, not only for the military jeopardy of such an effort, but also because they' d have to launch such an operation from Albania, which would complicate things a lot for the Balkan affairs in general.
I have nothing in mind that combines RS with Kossovo. Such a policy would damage all the process done in the last 3 years on the NATO's behalf. If you have something to prove that RS would be in peril, please post it, since I'm very interested in F. Yugoslavia.
He may have not been well-liked, but Serbs hated NATO for bombing their country. It was a national outrage, especially to those who lost family, and to stand firm and continue the fight wouldn't get him overthrown.
NATO could not have gone on bombing Serbia forever. If they had gone on for months afterward, it is likely they would have lost a few more aircraft, and we would start to see pilots get killed or captured. If Yugoslavia kept absorbing the attacks, and if aircraft and pilot losses kept steadily increasing, NATO's determination could start to sap.
I'll have to dig up old newspapers and some articles published during the Mesić presidency. As far as I remember the Bosnian Croats and Muslims were covertly preparing for a ground offensive with Croatian support and waiting for NATO greenlight. From what can be gathered NATO HQ was only days away from giving a green light when Yugoslavia finally relented.
As for the land operations in Yugoslavia itself one of the plans was for an armoured push from the north through Voivodina out of Hungary with an air desant into regions Kosovo still held by KLA. At the same time Croatian armed forces were also having a build up along the border in Srijem telling their NATO "firends" we (as in Croats) were ready to do our part (even though we were not part of the alliance back then).
Milošević back down I believe when his mole in the NATO HQ told him how close land operations have come to reality even though most of the fighting would not have been done by NATO troops.
tallthinkev
Donor
Maybe just try to take him out, one way or another, after a while. That will stop the bombing.
IMHO this is too much... I mean that these rumors and the movement on behalf of the Croats and the Bosnian Muslims may be true, but I'd classify them to an effort to scare the Serns, than to a real threat...
Ah, yes, I heard the Hungarians and Croats might have gone in.
In that case, there is a high chance of the invasion getting curbstomped.
MarshalBraginsky
Banned
Curbstomped? Even though NATO had a ton of troops and materiel to launch an invasion of Yugoslavia, the fact that Serb troops have a reputation as fierce guerrilla fighters does make sense.
I meant the Serbs curbstomp any Croat (and possibly Hungarian) invasion if it has little NATO help.
Hungarians were already in the NATO back then and Croatia's armed forces were the best in the region due to the cooperation with the US and considerable spending. Croatian army didn't get gutted until left wing coalition took over in 2000. If there was to be a Croatian push through Srijem it would look like any modern warfare offensive we have seen in the last 20 years. Think operation Storm level offensive just this time even more equipment, better lines of supply and a stronger ally. Sure the fighting would probably be the most intensive and brutal in Europe since WW II but with NATO air support I have little doubt Croatian army could have pushed their way to Belgrade. As for guerilla resistance I am not so certain as I would be expecting civilians to completely flee the area (that would be around 800 000 refugees burdening already colapsing FRY economy) and there isn't much operational space in Srijem for such a thing. The Srijem would be a clasic frontline against frontline confrontation. As for the potential Hungarian push from the north that has ample opportunities fro guerilla resistance as not so many people would flee.
I don't understand why would Croatia want to get into war with Serbia. As far as I know the issues of Crajna and Slavonia were solved, or weren't?
But, anyway, you forget of the fact that the intervention was "legitimated" as a humanitarian one. If NATO allowed or asked from Albania, Croatia, Bosnia&Herzegovina and Hungary to participate or serve as assault platforms, this "legitimation" would be lost and the war would be just a campaign of border revisionist countries, backed by an organization whose purposes was to preserve the borders and peace in Europe. That means that there would be a lot of vetoes in the alliance: Greece, the Scandinavians, probably Spain. Not to mention the international reaction of Russia, China, France, even Slovakia and Romania.
But, anyway, you forget of the fact that the intervention was "legitimated" as a humanitarian one. If NATO allowed or asked from Albania, Croatia, Bosnia&Herzegovina and Hungary to participate or serve as assault platforms, this "legitimation" would be lost and the war would be just a campaign of border revisionist countries, backed by an organization whose purposes was to preserve the borders and peace in Europe. That means that there would be a lot of vetoes in the alliance: Greece, the Scandinavians, probably Spain. Not to mention the international reaction of Russia, China, France, even Slovakia and Romania.
That was likely a bluff, but a well backed bluff. At least seems so...
Problems is, that are multiple rumors, that NATO (US) heavy weaponery were ready to be deployed in Hungary, some fighting elements and logistic and c3 were ready and present.
The rumors about the hungarian army are mixed, however.
The one thing im sure: the serbs were afraid of an offensive.
MarshalBraginsky
Banned
There's also the fact that the incident at Pristina Airport would easily become a protracted conflict.
Angel Heart
Banned
Serbia and Montenegro not giving up is in my humble opinion borderline ASB.
1. I think Andreas gave the best summary. Many tend to think of Milošević as Gaddafi or even Hitler who would literaly fight until the last man. In reality the only thing Sloba ever cared for since 1987 was his own political career and how to save his own skin. He would do anything to stay in power which he certainly wouldn't be if someone invades Belgrade. Besides, the VJ sustained only minimal damage from the NATO, defeated the KLA in every engagement and even managed to shoot down a modest number of NATO planes and UAVs so I think Sloba stopped at the least humiliating point and before Belgrade could have been eradicated from the face of the earth.
2. Under what mandate would Croatia, as a back then non-NATO member, contribute besides of satisfying her personal urge for vengance? Albania gave directly military support to the KLA and the regular Albanian army even opened fire on on the Serb side but neither Serbia and Montenegro nor Albania declared war on each other and Albanian troops (with the exeptions of some volunteers,
volunteers
and advisors) never crossed the border.
3. This may be just a personal opinion but I see absoluteley no reason why NATO would go for a ground invasion as time was working against Serbia and Montenegro. The VJ was a very competent fighting force and the morale was almost constantly high, but it doesn't mean anything when the economy and the civilian infrastructure are as good as dead. As for the military operation, instead of sending their own soldiers to their deaths NATO has thousands of Albanians willing to join the KLA and serve as cannon fodder. They would just have to wait until Serbia's economy collapses and everything else is a chain reaction. EDIT: There would have also been an unpleasant political fallout in case of a ground invasion. IIRC the US and the UK were in favor while Frace, Germany and Italy were against it. In some NATO members the bombing itself was very unpopular (Greece and Italy for example).
1. I think Andreas gave the best summary. Many tend to think of Milošević as Gaddafi or even Hitler who would literaly fight until the last man. In reality the only thing Sloba ever cared for since 1987 was his own political career and how to save his own skin. He would do anything to stay in power which he certainly wouldn't be if someone invades Belgrade. Besides, the VJ sustained only minimal damage from the NATO, defeated the KLA in every engagement and even managed to shoot down a modest number of NATO planes and UAVs so I think Sloba stopped at the least humiliating point and before Belgrade could have been eradicated from the face of the earth.
2. Under what mandate would Croatia, as a back then non-NATO member, contribute besides of satisfying her personal urge for vengance? Albania gave directly military support to the KLA and the regular Albanian army even opened fire on on the Serb side but neither Serbia and Montenegro nor Albania declared war on each other and Albanian troops (with the exeptions of some volunteers,
3. This may be just a personal opinion but I see absoluteley no reason why NATO would go for a ground invasion as time was working against Serbia and Montenegro. The VJ was a very competent fighting force and the morale was almost constantly high, but it doesn't mean anything when the economy and the civilian infrastructure are as good as dead. As for the military operation, instead of sending their own soldiers to their deaths NATO has thousands of Albanians willing to join the KLA and serve as cannon fodder. They would just have to wait until Serbia's economy collapses and everything else is a chain reaction. EDIT: There would have also been an unpleasant political fallout in case of a ground invasion. IIRC the US and the UK were in favor while Frace, Germany and Italy were against it. In some NATO members the bombing itself was very unpopular (Greece and Italy for example).
MarshalBraginsky
Banned
How is the NATO bombing of Yugoslavia unpopular among its members? Greece, I can udnerstand since they sympathize with Serbia, but Italy? Moreover, why France and Germany opposed it in the first place if some of their warplanes had actually taken part in the bombing? There's also the part on how NATO warplanes had bombed the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade, leading to a few unpleasantries between the West and the PRC, and let's not forget the Pristina Airport incident that would have easily turned into yet another conflict if General Clark acted a bit more rashly than usual.
The incident at Pristina airport would have lead to a short war. That is all.