WI: Yugoslavia becomes a confederation in 1990-91?

Wrong. Without being sure to be supported by Milošević and JNA, do you really think that commander of local police station ( Martić ) would dare to rebel against Croatia. And if Milošević is willing to create the confederacy, do you think that JNA would take weapons from Teritorial Defence of Croatia- and if the weapons is not taken, do you again think that Martić would dare to rebel? ( Teritorial Defence had weapons for 250 000 soldiers, just in Croatia ) Also, from day one of rebellion, they started to go for instructons in Belgrade, and further course of rebellion is well known. With Serbian SDB in spring of 1991 starting undercover operation to provide all sort of assistance to Serbs in Croatia, by organising paramilitary forces, sending money, weapons etc.
 
That's an interesting thought. On the other hand, Marković was relatively well-liked both at home and abroad (if not exactly loved by anyone in particular). So a different scapegoat may be better, if there are any available.

True - maybe Marković is a poor choice; I was just trying to think of anyone who opposed his actions too much. Drašković would be ideal, what with his role in the March protests (if they occur in this timeline), but I'm unsure whether that could be at all plausible. On the other hand, you don't need plausibility when you've got propaganda, and Drašković's somewhat more moderate views (especially concerning Serbian interventionism) could be turned against him here.
 
Wrong. Without being sure to be supported by Milošević and JNA, do you really think that commander of local police station ( Martić ) would dare to rebel against Croatia. And if Milošević is willing to create the confederacy, do you think that JNA would take weapons from Teritorial Defence of Croatia- and if the weapons is not taken, do you again think that Martić would dare to rebel? ( Teritorial Defence had weapons for 250 000 soldiers, just in Croatia ) Also, from day one of rebellion, they started to go for instructons in Belgrade, and further course of rebellion is well known. With Serbian SDB in spring of 1991 starting undercover operation to provide all sort of assistance to Serbs in Croatia, by organising paramilitary forces, sending money, weapons etc.

So are you saying that
Milošević ( and his friends in JNA ) CREATED Serb political movement in Krajina
or that Milosevic's support allowed the Krajina Serbs' movement to carry its efforts for independence to a full-fledged secession? Because those are two very different claims.


In any case, the rebellion didn't start off centralized, under Martic nor anyone else; it started off as a spontaneous, chaotic series of protests and blockades across the region.

The YNA's disarmament effort was undertaken at an early stage, in the Spring of 1990; and the Serbs of Croatia were not exempt from the disarmament. Milosevic's hypothetical confederacy proposal may not have much effect on that - depending on the timing, it might have no effect at all.
Especially as OP's scenario suggests that first the Serbs' rebellion is crushed, and then a confederacy is (maybe) negotiated and established.
 
So are you saying that

or that Milosevic's support allowed the Krajina Serbs' movement to carry its efforts for independence to a full-fledged secession? Because those are two very different claims.


In any case, the rebellion didn't start off centralized, under Martic nor anyone else; it started off as a spontaneous, chaotic series of protests and blockades across the region.

The YNA's disarmament effort was undertaken at an early stage, in the Spring of 1990; and the Serbs of Croatia were not exempt from the disarmament. Milosevic's hypothetical confederacy proposal may not have much effect on that - depending on the timing, it might have no effect at all.
Especially as OP's scenario suggests that first the Serbs' rebellion is crushed, and then a confederacy is (maybe) negotiated and established.

Your'e forgetting that weapons taken from Croatian Teritorial Defence was later given by JNA to rebelled Serbs. So the disarmament had no effect on them really.

Again, in a world where Milošević is ready to propose a confederacy, Milan Martić and others: A ) wouldn't dare to rebel against Croatia, because they would know that Milošević and JNA will not support them ( and without that support they are toasted ) and B) if they rebel, they would end up in jain in no time.
 
So yeah it seems the confederation will become a reality in game, but with Slovenia still convinced of wanting to leave by June 1991 (per IRL.)

Am I correct in assuming that Croatia would pretty much spend a year or two in the confederation, decide it isn't helping, and then withdraw? I'm not sure what would happen to Bosnia and Hercegovina though, or Macedonia. I'd imagine the Bosnian Serb leaders would, as IRL, continue to press for autonomy or incorporation into Serbia.
 
So yeah it seems the confederation will become a reality in game, but with Slovenia still convinced of wanting to leave by June 1991 (per IRL.)

Am I correct in assuming that Croatia would pretty much spend a year or two in the confederation, decide it isn't helping, and then withdraw? I'm not sure what would happen to Bosnia and Hercegovina though, or Macedonia. I'd imagine the Bosnian Serb leaders would, as IRL, continue to press for autonomy or incorporation into Serbia.

This all sounds pretty accurate. Slovenia, at this stage, would never go into a confederation; Croatia might, but only as a stepping stone to eventual independence. Tuđman will almost certainly become Croatian President, and he was dead-set on independence, but no Log Revolution among the Krajina Serbs might delay that for a bit - he could also try to spin it among the nationalists as buying Croatia a bit of time to prepare itself for independence. Bosnia probably would go into a confederation - Izetbegović would be likely to agree if the Bosnian Muslims were allowed to merge with the Sanjak - although two problems presenting themselves would be the precise delineation of the internal borders, and the position of the Bosnian Serbs and Croats. If Croatia starts pushing for independence, the Bosnian Croats under Boban will follow suit; meanwhile, the Bosnian Serbs will campaign from the start for unity with Serbia, in exchange for the Sanjak deal. As for Macedonia, I don't know an awful lot about the situation there - they might stay, with sufficient incentives, though.

One important thing to bear in mind will be the conclusion of Slovenia's war of independence. ITTL, the Brioni Accords (which ended the Ten-Day War) pretty much destroyed Yugoslavism as an ideology; Marković's reputation was destroyed, and the federal structures of Yugoslavia became completely dependent on Serbia (the JNA essentially became an extension of Serbian military power). Croatia not seceding at the same time as Slovenia may well change this a bit, but Marković and all other Yugoslavists will have a difficult balancing act ahead of them after Slovenia goes - trying to preserve Yugoslavism and Yugoslavia, but not became Milošević's puppets.
 
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