WI - Yugoslav Civil War in the 30s?

BigBlueBox

Banned
What do you mean by “resembles Spain”? If you meant that it would be a war between a leftist Popular Front and a far-right coalition then no. If Yugoslavia had a civil war it would be an ethnic war. There would definitely be foreign interventions, but those would be Italy, Bulgaria, and Hungary marching in to fulfill their irredentist goals, not anything like the Condor Legion or the International Brigades.
 
What do you mean by “resembles Spain”? If you meant that it would be a war between a leftist Popular Front and a far-right coalition then no. If Yugoslavia had a civil war it would be an ethnic war. There would definitely be foreign interventions, but those would be Italy, Bulgaria, and Hungary marching in to fulfill their irredentist goals, not anything like the Condor Legion or the International Brigades.
To what extent would the foreign interventions be other than what you just mentioned?
 
What happens to Serbia?
Likely under it's monarchy and some kind of dictatorship. Yugoslavia would be reduced to OTL Serbia with bits of Bosnia and maybe Montenegro if Italy doesn't rip it off in some military intervention and minus what Hungary took in world war 2.
 
Yugoslavia's Neighbors will take their choice picks and Italy will turn Croatia into a client state

France is closely allied to Yugoslavia. If Italy invades it, civil war or no civil war France is going to intervene in turn. Bulgaria and Hungary counting on timing would trigger Little Entente and Balkan Entente intervention.
 
The Spanish civil war was allowed to go on for so long without direct foreign intervention because none of Spain's neighbours were particularly interested in directly intervening. This would not be the case in a Yugoslavian civil war in the 1930s, where perhaps all of Yugoslavia's neighbours save Austria had territorial claims against Yugoslavia. The most likely outcome of a Yugoslavian civil war in this time frame would be a general partition of Yugoslavia, IMHO.
 
They were also allied with Czechoslovakia, and would they really want to go war over parts of Dalmatia when Germany is remilitarizing.

If Italy invades? Leaving aside how "little gallant Serbia" will be resonating so few years after the end of the Great War with the French and western public in general which will be way more than the Czechs could hope for, France doesn't have much more option than it had when Poland was invaded over standing by their treaties... and faces way less of a challenge in the first place. On the other side of the pond things won't be looking that sunny on the other hand. Direct Italian intervention will be risking war with France and probably also Britain. Hungary if it moves will have to deal with Czechoslovakia and Romania, both allied to Yugoslavia, either of which post Trianon and till 1939 or so would have overwhelming superiority over the Hungarians. Bulgaria is most inconveniently sandwiched between Greece, Turkey and Romania risking a repeat of the 2nd Balkan war... only this time every single one of them has a significant margin of superiority over it post Neully.
 
Leaving aside how "little gallant Serbia" will be resonating so few years after the end of the Great War with the French and western public in general which will be way more than the Czechs could hope for,
It's 12 years at the earliest since the end of world war 1. Not to mention Italy and Co could portray Serbs as the oppressors of the various people in Yugoslavia.
France doesn't have much more option than
They also had a treaties with Czechoslovakia which they broke, not to mention they allow Germany to break treaty of Versailles and the Munich agreement. They also allowed Italy to invade Ethiopia and Albania.

if it moves will have to deal with Czechoslovakia and Romania, both allied to Yugoslavia
German and Polish threats along with blocking arms and resources could dissway Czechoslovakia while Soviet threats along with being surrounded by Hungary in the West and Bulgaria in the South could dissway Romania .

Bulgaria is most inconveniently sandwiched between Greece, Turkey and Romania risking a repeat of the 2nd Balkan war...
Turkey doesn't have any territory claims same on Bulgaria same with Greece also Greece doesn't have an alliance with Yugoslavia .
 
What happens to Tito in this timeline? IIRC the JCP was just now accepting a united Yugoslavia--could the Monarchy end up becoming a Serbia-in-sheeps-clothing even more than IOTL and a Tito-dominated Popular Front becoming a focus of international intervention?
 
France is closely allied to Yugoslavia. If Italy invades it, civil war or no civil war France is going to intervene in turn. Bulgaria and Hungary counting on timing would trigger Little Entente and Balkan Entente intervention.

Yes because a French Guarantee of independence was worth SO MUCH in the 30's.
 
It's 12 years at the earliest since the end of world war 1. Not to mention Italy and Co could portray Serbs as the oppressors of the various people in Yugoslavia.

Exactly. It's only a bit over a decade from 1918. Alexander, regent and officially head of army in 1918 is still king of Yugoslavia. For a cue on his popularity see what was going in Marseilles at the time of his assassination. Or the positive press he was getting from things like time... at the time of the royal dictatorship. As to Italian propaganda being effective, well no. A fascist regime that since 1922 has been sabre rattling against France itself, claiming from Tunis to Nice and Corsica, while supporting Croat fascist terrorists, is making claims against the loyal French ally it has just invaded. Not that effective.

They also had a treaties with Czechoslovakia which they broke, not to mention they allow Germany to break treaty of Versailles and the Munich agreement. They also allowed Italy to invade Ethiopia and Albania.

Technically not. They pressured Czechoslovakia to back down to Germany and the Czechs did as much. The equivalent would be what would have happened had the Czechs fought instead. Ethiopia is a good example come down to this. The Western powers along with a whole bunch of lesser League powers came close to outright war with Italy over an African state towards which they had no formal obligations and for what in the 30s quite a bit of their population would still view as just a colonial conflict.

German and Polish threats along with blocking arms and resources could dissway Czechoslovakia while Soviet threats along with being surrounded by Hungary in the West and Bulgaria in the South could dissway Romania .
And why exactly would Poland, itself closely in the French orbit will be taking any action at all against the Little Entente under the circumstances? Germany issuing threats... at any time before 1938 Germany cannot back any threats and knows as much. Besides even from the German perspective Italy has been the main power stopping absorbing Austria. The likely German action is to take advantage of the mess Italy has found itself to effect anschluss, not to antagonize the Western powers early. As for the Soviets at the time they are doing their best to play and be accepted as a status quo power joining the League of Nations in 1934 and the Franco-Soviet treaty of mutual assistance in 1935. So again not very likely to be helping fascist Italy in any way.

As for Hungary and Bulgaria posing a military threat on Romania and not the other way round, the Honved till 1938 was all of 7 mixed brigades with two infantry regiments each, call it charitably the equivalent of 7 Italian binary divisions, maybe. The Bulgarian army stood at 8 divisions after 1934. Romania on the other hand could mobilize 33 infantry divisions and 4 mountain brigades. Or roughly a 3 to 1 advantage against Hungary and Bulgaria combined (107 infantry regiments to 38)

Turkey doesn't have any territory claims same on Bulgaria same with Greece also Greece doesn't have an alliance with Yugoslavia .

Both Greece and Turkey are allied to Yugoslavia and Romania (Balkan pact of 1934). Both also had a vested interest at the time in keeping Bulgaria from becoming a threat again, hence the Greco-Turkish alliance treaty of 1933. Greece also had informal arrangements with Yugoslavia, Thessaloniki was supposed to be the main route of western supply to Yugoslavia and the Little Entente in case of war.
 
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