WI: Yuan Shikai was successful

He will fail to keep it united and when he dies some months later due to kidney failure it will break apart.
 
I know that this isn't quite what the OP asks for, but could someone else have been inspired to succeed Yuan Shikai if he becomes emperor? I'm not finding any likely people, though.
 
You need someone way more popular to restore the monarchy. Yuan Shikai was exactly the wrong person.

Even then you probably still only end up with an Imperial Northern China and a Republican Southern China. No idea what happens if the Communists get thrown into the mix...:D
 
Kill off Cai E before he could leave Beijing. Without Cai E, the revolutionary and progressive forces in the South won't unite that fast. They would eventually find another leader to rally behind. When that happens, Yuan is still doomed to fail as not even Beiyang military personnels agreed with Yuan's decision to make himself Emperor. He may hang on for a year before the South unites and the stress kills him off, but once he dies, the monarchy would be over. His son simply could not control the military. Duan Qirui would assume power in a coup on the next day.
 
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