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Suppose Yuan Shikai dies at some point before 1911 and someone else is in charge of the new Army (perhaps someone with sympathies toward Sun Yat-sen). He is therefore not elected prime minister by the National Assembly and doesn't become provisional president after the Qing's overthrow. The guy effectively ruined democracy in China; that was perhaps not the worst since China needed strong leadership. What was worse was his attempt at founding his own dynasty which alienated everybody, leading to him losing support. His effort at establishing a dynasty ultimately failed and China descended into warlordism after his death.
Suppose he isn't around and therefore Sun Yat-sen gains universal recognition as president in 1911/1912. How does this change the course of Chinese history if at all? remmeber that also Song Jiaoren might live since Yuan Shikai is held responsible for his assassination.
Alternatively, let's assume that Yuan Shikai doesn't make himself emperor and stays a conventional strongman on top of some military dictatorship. What happens to China then. Would it still descend into warlordism even with the New Army as a powerbase?