Wi Yuan Shikai not around during the Chinese Revolution?

Suppose Yuan Shikai dies at some point before 1911 and someone else is in charge of the new Army (perhaps someone with sympathies toward Sun Yat-sen). He is therefore not elected prime minister by the National Assembly and doesn't become provisional president after the Qing's overthrow. The guy effectively ruined democracy in China; that was perhaps not the worst since China needed strong leadership. What was worse was his attempt at founding his own dynasty which alienated everybody, leading to him losing support. His effort at establishing a dynasty ultimately failed and China descended into warlordism after his death.

Suppose he isn't around and therefore Sun Yat-sen gains universal recognition as president in 1911/1912. How does this change the course of Chinese history if at all? remmeber that also Song Jiaoren might live since Yuan Shikai is held responsible for his assassination.

Alternatively, let's assume that Yuan Shikai doesn't make himself emperor and stays a conventional strongman on top of some military dictatorship. What happens to China then. Would it still descend into warlordism even with the New Army as a powerbase?
 
I think that without Yuan Shikai (who replaces him? How? Why? Let's say he dies in 1911) you get an earlier civil war.

Remember, when the New Army mutinied in Wuchang in 1911, several rpovinces followed in short order by seceding from the Qing Empire and establishing military/Revolutionary governments.

Yuan was respnosible for engotaitiosn between the revolutionaries and the Qing dynasty to step down, averting ane arlier bloody awr.

Without Yuan, who will get the Qing to step down peacefully. They had no support outside of Manchuria, so maybe the Japanese or Russians try to move in?
 
I agree, civil war is going to come one way or another. Even if this "new Yuan" supports Sun for president, he's probably going to demand some major role in the future government, and if Sun shows any weakness or makes changes that our New Yuan doesnt like, he'll probably try and nudge the good Doctor out of the way and take power himself. And then we'll just follow the same path as when OTL Yuan declared himself emperor.

If he doesnt support Sun, and even tries to prop up the Qing court, then it's civil war from the get-go.

maybe the Japanese or Russians try to move in?

That's a good possibility. IIRC, Yuan made sure to reassure the foreign powers that his government would continue to abide by the "unequal treaties," but if you've got a more uncertain situation with a lot of angry revolutionaries, the foreign powers might foresee a threat to their interests, and intervene accordingly.
 
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