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WI Yuan Shih-kai, the President and dictator of the early Republic of China, moved quickly after the outbreak of the war in Europe in 1914 to overpower the German garrison and reclaim the German leasehold in Shandong as sovereign Chinese territory.

Yuan has no particular reason to resent the Germans more than any other variety of foreigner, but decides that attacking the Germans is a good move mainly because, unlike most other foreign leaseholds: a) the Germans in China are isolated from support and the Chinese can overwhelm them, b) Japan or another Entente country is likely to take the territory otherwise, c) the Germans are in the smaller, more distant coalition and are therefore more likely to lose the war, d) he figures that if Germany does win in Europe and get to project serious power in the Far East again there is plenty of time for the Beiyang Republic to make concessions back to the Germans before things get too bad, and e) a successful anti-foreign operation would raise his prestige. Any additional international prestige or diplomatic popularity with Entente powers that China might gain is just added gravy for the dish.

With Yuan thinking along these lines and massing troops and guns accordingly, can he secure Qingdao from the Germans before the Japanese do?

What are the knock-on effects of this move?

Does this do away with the May 4th Movement and make China inclined to sign at Versailles?

How is Japanese foreign policy altered if at all? [minimal change would be the 21 Demands have less to say about Shandong in particular but are otherwise similar; more extensive change would be Japan trying to pry Qingdao for itself anyway & driving China out, Japan demanding a greater share of German Pacific territories (Nauru?), Japan doing less in the wider naval war (feeling upset w/fewer gains) or Japan switching sides to join Germany]
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