WI Yuan Shih-Kai ordered an invasion of German Qingdao in August 1914?

raharris1973

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WI Yuan Shih-kai, the President and dictator of the early Republic of China, moved quickly after the outbreak of the war in Europe in 1914 to overpower the German garrison and reclaim the German leasehold in Shandong as sovereign Chinese territory.

Yuan has no particular reason to resent the Germans more than any other variety of foreigner, but decides that attacking the Germans is a good move mainly because, unlike most other foreign leaseholds: a) the Germans in China are isolated from support and the Chinese can overwhelm them, b) Japan or another Entente country is likely to take the territory otherwise, c) the Germans are in the smaller, more distant coalition and are therefore more likely to lose the war, d) he figures that if Germany does win in Europe and get to project serious power in the Far East again there is plenty of time for the Beiyang Republic to make concessions back to the Germans before things get too bad, and e) a successful anti-foreign operation would raise his prestige. Any additional international prestige or diplomatic popularity with Entente powers that China might gain is just added gravy for the dish.

With Yuan thinking along these lines and massing troops and guns accordingly, can he secure Qingdao from the Germans before the Japanese do?

What are the knock-on effects of this move?

Does this do away with the May 4th Movement and make China inclined to sign at Versailles?

How is Japanese foreign policy altered if at all? [minimal change would be the 21 Demands have less to say about Shandong in particular but are otherwise similar; more extensive change would be Japan trying to pry Qingdao for itself anyway & driving China out, Japan demanding a greater share of German Pacific territories (Nauru?), Japan doing less in the wider naval war (feeling upset w/fewer gains) or Japan switching sides to join Germany]
 
WI Yuan Shih-kai, the President and dictator of the early Republic of China, moved quickly after the outbreak of the war in Europe in 1914 to overpower the German garrison and reclaim the German leasehold in Shandong as sovereign Chinese territory.

Yuan has no particular reason to resent the Germans more than any other variety of foreigner, but decides that attacking the Germans is a good move mainly because, unlike most other foreign leaseholds: a) the Germans in China are isolated from support and the Chinese can overwhelm them, b) Japan or another Entente country is likely to take the territory otherwise, c) the Germans are in the smaller, more distant coalition and are therefore more likely to lose the war, d) he figures that if Germany does win in Europe and get to project serious power in the Far East again there is plenty of time for the Beiyang Republic to make concessions back to the Germans before things get too bad, and e) a successful anti-foreign operation would raise his prestige. Any additional international prestige or diplomatic popularity with Entente powers that China might gain is just added gravy for the dish.

With Yuan thinking along these lines and massing troops and guns accordingly, can he secure Qingdao from the Germans before the Japanese do?

What are the knock-on effects of this move?

Does this do away with the May 4th Movement and make China inclined to sign at Versailles?

How is Japanese foreign policy altered if at all? [minimal change would be the 21 Demands have less to say about Shandong in particular but are otherwise similar; more extensive change would be Japan trying to pry Qingdao for itself anyway & driving China out, Japan demanding a greater share of German Pacific territories (Nauru?), Japan doing less in the wider naval war (feeling upset w/fewer gains) or Japan switching sides to join Germany]

If I remember right, the German bases in Shandong were aimed at a invasion by land (or sea, I forgot which one), so it might cost a lot of Yuan's troops without much reward. In the end, he might even lose legitimacy because he's basically killed off his warlords' troops (who were his backers), allowing the GMD to advance far more and rely even less on the warlords, possibly even stripping the warlords of their power.
 
Even if China were able to take Qingdao, Japan would just take it through force afterwards. China's only hope to gain from the war was through diplomatic means, hence the later declaration of war IOTL so they could get a seat at Versailles. And even this was controversial, with many Chinese leaders pushing for continued neutrality since they'd managed to profit significantly from their position. Without the 21 Demands, they probably would've continued to stay neutral.

One way that an earlier Chinese entry into the war would benefit the Entente would be a much larger and earlier establishment of the Chinese Labour Corps, which would free up more soldiers and improve logistics on the Western Front.
 

raharris1973

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If I remember right, the German bases in Shandong were aimed at a invasion by land (or sea, I forgot which one)
It is quite important which one it was :). A mainly seaward defense would be less problematic for the Chinese.

so it might cost a lot of Yuan's troops without much reward.

I suppose it could, at least if the Japanese still seize the harbor district while the Chinese troops are still bogged down in landward fortifications.

allowing the GMD to advance far more and rely even less on the warlords, possibly even stripping the warlords of their power.

Were pro-GMD forces anywhere near this powerful at the time. I think Sun might have been in exile in Japan at the time, and the GMD politicians, at best, just had some friendly southern warlords of their own, certainly not a disciplined party army, which would have to wait another 10 years.

Even if China were able to take Qingdao, Japan would just take it through force afterwards.

I could see the Japanese take any parts of Qingdao the Chinese do not get to first, and of course it is always possible for them to overcome the Chinese garrison and take it over. But suppose the Chinese have taken the surrender of the last German troops, facilities and weapons in Qingdao, what excuse would Japan have for claiming it then.

Why would a blatant poaching off of a Chinese victory in 1914 play any better with the British and Americans than OTL's "21 Demands" did in OTL?

China's only hope to gain from the war was through diplomatic means,

I would think Yuan would think of a splendid little war against a (locally) weak opponent would be an aid to diplomacy and vice versa.

One way that an earlier Chinese entry into the war would benefit the Entente would be a much larger and earlier establishment of the Chinese Labour Corps, which would free up more soldiers and improve logistics on the Western Front.

That's a good point, and I think Yuan, once having decided to do a coup de main in Qingdao, would be trying to cut deals and offer some affordable services to *all members* of their Entente in order to ward off Japanese claims in Shandong.
 
If Liang Qichao (pro allies) gains a stronger position earlier than OTL, Yuan would have the support of one of the strongest warlords.
 

raharris1973

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If Liang Qichao (pro allies) gains a stronger position earlier than OTL, Yuan would have the support of one of the strongest warlords.

I suppose a hypothetical Chinese success at Qingdao still doesn't give any long term stability to Beiyang. As, nothing about this scenario I can think of makes it *less* likely that Yuan will seek the Imperial title, and when he does, that will mobilize opposition, division and the warlord era.

Hmm- I wonder if China has Qingdao and is an Entente power like Japan all through the war, and if Japan doesn't do anything force more of the 21 Demands on China than in OTL, they might both co-sponsor a racial equality clause at Versailles. ...and both get disappointed.
 
Quite possible. It would have interesting possibilities if China can actually gain some more stability after the War. Perhaps the US or France may give aid to counter Japan.
 
I suppose a hypothetical Chinese success at Qingdao still doesn't give any long term stability to Beiyang. As, nothing about this scenario I can think of makes it *less* likely that Yuan will seek the Imperial title, and when he does, that will mobilize opposition, division and the warlord era.

Hmm- I wonder if China has Qingdao and is an Entente power like Japan all through the war, and if Japan doesn't do anything force more of the 21 Demands on China than in OTL, they might both co-sponsor a racial equality clause at Versailles. ...and both get disappointed.
Personally,I think the problem is a matter of what right did Yuan Shikai have to gain the imperial title?If Yuan can actually project himself as a successful leader,he might have the legitimacy to be emperor.He also needs to integrate his sons into the political system such that they would have support to succeed him.
 
excellent point
But of course,the most critical point would be for Yuan to have actually gained political legitimacy by governing China better.If he had somehow spearheaded the move to depose the Qing,as opposed to forcing them off the throne well after the rebellions have broken out,that would have constituted a source of legitimacy as well.Proclaiming himself emperor when the country was far from under his control was a bit stupid.Somehow being able to take advantage of Russian chaos during WWI and take some territories from them might contribute to a more successful regime as well.But of course,retaking Qingdao from the Germans is definitely a right step towards this direction.
 
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