WI: Yom Kippur War-style invasion of RSA

There were no bases in South Africa after the Royal Navy handed over Simonstown in 1957. That would have been completely politically unsustainable. If they had existed, then that would have made the RSA an ally and certain commitments would have been obligated. In that scenario, you are right that a nuclear response would have been all too possible.

However, this is different. The RSA was diplomatically isolated and under arms embargo since the 1970s. NATO will not risk the death of the human race lightly. They won't go to the mats like that for Pretoria.

The problem is, this is still during WW3, with NORAD and SAC amped up and expecting the apocalypse to start literally five minutes from now. And then the Soviet Union goes ahead and launches. How willing are you, as the Soviet Premier, to risk that the Americans are willing to take five minutes to verify that the Nukes are NOT heading towards the American homeland instead of immediately launching a full counter-strike at the detection of your first launch?
 
If you want to write this scenario it is possible, but putting it in the context of WWIII would be a mistake. Instead have UNITA's offensive and the SADF's moving into Cunene in 83 be more effective with FAPLA and the Cubans on the ropes, and Afghanistan looking shaky, the soviets decided that they need a win. As such they allow the cease fire between FAPLA and the SADF to go forward and increase the Cuban presence in Angola, as well as throwing in a couple of formations of their own, with the intention of wiping out UNITA and then continuing into Nambia to liberate it from the imperialist clutches of the racists regime in Pretoria. Not trusting the Cubans, as they had been proven not to be able to hold out against the SADF in the fighting in Cunene, it is decided to go with a quantity over quality and get as many of their African clients involved in the fight from the get go, with a secondary assault on the SADF through Zimbabwe to garentee victory.

Unfortunately the majority of the african countries which are approached turn them down for one reason or another. In the end their eastern force is almost completely provided by the Derg and Libya backed up by warsaw pact units and those FRELIMO units which can be spared. The end result is that the build up lasts through most of 84, with tensions rising throughout southern africa as the south africans begin to panic and apear to be alone against the forces of communism. Their panic induces Mugabe to join in the coalition as they are looking less and less likely to survive. The apartheid regime ups it persecution of the ANC, and initiates several massacres in their attempt to get the ANC under control before the war they know is coming hits, along with upping their efforts to get rid of the SWAPO, and begins to offer RENAMO major military support as well as cultivating contacts in the Matebeland region and with those ZIPIRA fighters and commanders they can find. This causes the South Africans no end of grief on the international stage, but they are past caring. The one bright spot for the south africans is that they get their air industry fully cracked up and have begun to build out the full compliment of F1's that they have the license for, as well as france getting nervouse and allowing the technical specs for the upgraded F1 to be leaked to the south africans.

When the war comes, in early 85, its a slaughter. The pact forces and their african allies move towards the south african border gives all of the rebel groups that the south africans have been priming the opening that they were looking for. Zimbabwe disolves into ethnic civil war, while RENAMO makes major gains against FRELIMO only to be thrown back from their attempts to take the ports by pact units. With Derg forces away Eritrean rebels begin to get the upper hand, and Barre seeing a way to regain control launches Ogden MrkII now with American support, causing the fighting that was intended to be localized to spread. In Chad operation MANTA was not wound down in 83 as the libyan forces were weakened to support the push on South Africa, as a result the French pushed GUNT out of the country disregarding their previous decision to keep below the 17th parallel and then chose to continue their operations in Libya, with air support provided by the Clem and Foch and landings on the libyan coast by the legion, with the goal of regime change supported by the Italians who were responding to a SCUD attack meant for Corsica which missed and hit Sardinia.

While the Eastern thrust is in complete dissaray, the Angolan campaign is a success and the remnants of UNITA are sent fleeing into Nambia giving the Soviets their cover. SADF forces fight with all they have but are pushed back through Nambia through the supperior soviet numbers and heavier equipment, not to mention ANC sabotage of SADF stocks going to the front line. The SADF is forced back to Walvis bay and the Soviets prepare to declare victory only for Matala and Curelia, their logistics and repair hubs for the Angolan campaign, to dissapear in nuclear fireballs and the South Africans to go on the offensive driving them back into Angola. With the pact forces mostly destroyed, and it looking like the Soviets are going to lose Angola completely to the vengeful SADF, the UN is allowed to do its job and establish peace.

You know, this could be a pretty grim distopian TL if i ever wrote it out completely, especially as the South Africans would have been proven correct in their assertion that the ANC was little more then a communist puppet and that they were fighting the forces of communism, not just for racism, at least in the western public's eyes. You would probably the the dismantling of sanctions and the embrace of the Apartheid regime by the west following the war, although their use of nukes would raise more then a few eyebrows. The USSR would come apart badly after the war was over, probably violently, and just about everyone who bordered them would be pushing for Nukes just in case... Feel free to poke holes in this, as its just a rough outline written without the benefit of proper research.
 
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