WI: Yitzak Rabin survives

Here's the Wikipedia entry for his 1995 assassination:

Wikipedia said:
After the rally, Rabin walked down the city hall steps towards the open door of his car, at which time Amir fired three shots at Rabin with a Beretta 84F .380 ACP caliber semi-automatic pistol. He was immediately subdued by Rabin's bodyguards and arrested with the murder weapon. The third shot missed Rabin and slightly wounded security guard Yoram Rubin

What if two of Amir's shots hit Yoram Rubin, leaving him seriously injured, and the last shot missed, thus leaving Rabin alive at the end of the day? How does this change history in ME? Can Israel become more moderate than OTL?

Marc A
 
Quicker resolution to Arab-Israeli conflict.

But would it really? I mean, when Ehud Barak offered so much to Arafat at the turn of the century, and Arafat still wouldn't go for it. I believe that the Israeli public would have had a very hard time accepting the terms if Arafat had signed onto it. Could Rabin have done anything more than Barak did?
 
But would it really? I mean, when Ehud Barak offered so much to Arafat at the turn of the century, and Arafat still wouldn't go for it. I believe that the Israeli public would have had a very hard time accepting the terms if Arafat had signed onto it. Could Rabin have done anything more than Barak did?

Er... well two years ago when I was in Year 11 here in Australia I did the Arab-Israeli conflict in history class. And from what I remember (not much as right now I have finished Modern History as a subject) Rabin's attempt at the peace process had support among those who wanted a peace process. ETA: I don't remember much. I'm not studying this anymore.) So that should probably say "Maybe". Other ETA: I also did Yasser Arafat as a personality study.
 
while Rabin would certainly have been more moderate, the problem was that Arafat & the PLO (to say nothing of the more "radical" elements) would not agree to ANY deal the Israelis would be willing to sign. PLO insisted (still does) on return to ALL 1967 boundaries, including Jewish areas of Jerusalem, no limits on PLO military, and "right of return" for any & all who claimed descent from anyone who had lived in pre-1948 Israel/Palestine. NO Israeli government will agree to these conditions, so while Rabin living may make the "process" more active....
 
while Rabin would certainly have been more moderate, the problem was that Arafat & the PLO (to say nothing of the more "radical" elements) would not agree to ANY deal the Israelis would be willing to sign. PLO insisted (still does) on return to ALL 1967 boundaries, including Jewish areas of Jerusalem, no limits on PLO military, and "right of return" for any & all who claimed descent from anyone who had lived in pre-1948 Israel/Palestine. NO Israeli government will agree to these conditions, so while Rabin living may make the "process" more active....

Don't forget also the division of Jerusalem. Despite his desire for peace and his genuine sympathy for the Palestinians, Rabin was adamantly opposed to dividing Jerusalem, even ceding the Arab areas. He believed that no peace was preferable over dividing Jerusalem.
 
The problem here is Arafat: he has no easy means to establish any kind of peace and retain power, and in that calculus, what's good for Arafat will always take precedence over even what's good for Palestinians.

In that case, what's the best result that we can hope for ITTL? Basically I'm looking for a way for the Israelis to not be the douchebags they are IOTL. I'm open to suggestions. ;)

Marc A
 

Tibbar

Banned
To be honest, Rabin's reputation and perceived potential are often greatly exaggerated in the last 17 years. Before his assassination, Rabin actually wasn't that popular--if I recall correctly, he was roughly tied with Netanyahu in Israeli opinion polls for PM right before his assassination. The reason for this is that many Israelis viewed him as incompetent in response to terrorism and too trustful of Arafat.

If Rabin survives his assassination attempt, then he likely loses to Netanyahu in 1996 by a somewhat larger margin than Peres did in RL (there would be less of a sympathy vote if Rabin survives). Rabin is then likely replaced as Labor chairman/leader by either Peres or Barak. Netanyahu loses to one of those two in the late 1990s (probably 1999), and afterwards Peres or Barak enters into final status negotiations with Arafat, only to see them fail as in real life. The Second Intifada still breaks out and the peace process completely collapses.

However, an interesting butterfly that might occur from this scenario is that Gore might have won in 2000 rather than Bush. If Gore wins, there will likely be a Mideast peace treaty in 2007-2008 (assuming Arafat dies on schedule), since Gore would likely be much more committed to the peace process than Bush was in RL. If Bush still wins in 2000, then the situation in Israel today probably looks the same as it does in RL.

In regards to dividing Jerusalem, yes, Rabin opposed diving it while Prime Minister. However, Barak, Olmert, Nir Barkat, and some other Israeli politicians also opposed dividing Jerusalem at one point of their political careers before changing their minds. Heck, even Rabin's son Yuval endorsed diving Jeruaslem when he released his Israeli Peace Initiative. It's very possible that Rabin would have also embraced the idea of dividing Jerusalem whenever it would first be made by a prominent Israeli politician and becomes widely accepted.
 
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