WI: Yelü Dashi actually cared about China?

Despite what official histories may say, it is quite clear that "the Universal Khan" had no serious plan to restore the Liao empire in East Asia after the Jurchen conquest. What if he did care about restoring the empire and invaded the fledgling Jurchen empire in 1135 (just after the death of Wanyan Wuqimai)?

Would the Khitans (Dashi's army + the Khitans still in the east) have success in regaining the empire? What about the Song, as the Jurchen armies are going to be drawn back north to face the Khitans? How would this change Islamic Central Asia, where the Qara Khitai have just left?
 
I can bet you that the Song will be SUUUPER happy, unless the Khitans are able to conquer the Jurchen.

Their greatest two enemies are literally fighting each other, and both are fairly powerful. And if the Song are lucky, neither will win. :D

This leaves the Jin open for attack, kind of like what the Song did when the Mongols attacked Jin. But they'll only attack Jin while they're sure that the Khitans won't take over.
 
Things is,are the Khitans strong enough for a comeback?

The dude took over Central Asia, he probably has enough troops to hurt the Jin.

Besides, the Song is benefited the most. If the Khitans and Jin fight each other to the point where both collapse, Song's gonna be happier than a goose.
 
The dude took over Central Asia, he probably has enough troops to hurt the Jin.

Besides, the Song is benefited the most. If the Khitans and Jin fight each other to the point where both collapse, Song's gonna be happier than a goose.

Taking on Central Asia is different to taking on the Jurchens,their vassal tribesmen and the Chinese auxiliaries they have under their disposal.
 
Things is,are the Khitans strong enough for a comeback?

There were 84500 people capable of serving as soldiers in the Qara Khitai state of 1151, disregarding the sedentary Muslim population. He definitely has tens of thousands even in 1135. Plus, there is a large Khitan (and Xi, etc) population left in the east, and much of the Jurchen cavalry is Khitan and their commanders mostly stand to benefit from a Khitan restauration. Yelü has a good chance of destroying the Jurchen state, especially since he's arriving in a time of dynastic weakness (the death of Wuqimai).
 
There were 84500 people capable of serving as soldiers in the Qara Khitai state of 1151, disregarding the sedentary Muslim population. He definitely has tens of thousands even in 1135. Plus, there is a large Khitan (and Xi, etc) population left in the east, and much of the Jurchen cavalry is Khitan and their commanders mostly stand to benefit from a Khitan restauration. Yelü has a good chance of destroying the Jurchen state, especially since he's arriving in a time of dynastic weakness (the death of Wuqimai).

I'm guessing that the Song will:
A. Support the Jin against the invading Khitans if it looks like collapse is imminent.
B. Invade the Jin if they look strong enough to fight the Khitans. After they start fighting, of course.
 
Yelü Dashi did in fact try to retake China. He led an expedition in 1134 with reportedly 70,000 men. It's just that the invasion soon ran into difficulties. He took that as a sign and decided to turn back. The depths of Yelü Dashi's commitment to re-establishing the Liao might be doubted, but he definitely had some interest in it. He was experienced commander who had gone up against the Jurchen Jin several times, with no success. It was a reasonable decision for him to remain in the west. He may have had some chance of success, but the probability wasn't high.
 
Yelü Dashi did in fact try to retake China. He led an expedition in 1134 with reportedly 70,000 men. It's just that the invasion soon ran into difficulties. He took that as a sign and decided to turn back. The depths of Yelü Dashi's commitment to re-establishing the Liao might be doubted, but he definitely had some interest in it. He was experienced commander who had gone up against the Jurchen Jin several times, with no success. It was a reasonable decision for him to remain in the west. He may have had some chance of success, but the probability wasn't high.

That account of 70000 soldiers is widely discredited - the Qara Khitai were doing great a few years after the supposedly terrible loss, the Khitan commander in charge (note that Dashi himself did not go east despite his well-known tactical prowess) continued to have high positions, and the Qara Khitai continued incursions in the east (mostly minor ones) throughout the 1130s. The Empire of the Kara Khitai in Eurasian History discusses this issue.
 
That account of 70000 soldiers is widely discredited - the Qara Khitai were doing great a few years after the supposedly terrible loss, the Khitan commander in charge (note that Dashi himself did not go east despite his well-known tactical prowess) continued to have high positions, and the Qara Khitai continued incursions in the east (mostly minor ones) throughout the 1130s. The Empire of the Kara Khitai in Eurasian History discusses this issue.
But that's not really my point: you said that Yelü Dashi didn't care about retaking China and suggested he should have attacked around 1135. I pointed out that he did take some efforts to retake China.

So what shows that Yelü Dashi didn't care about China at all? The fact he didn't lead his invasion of the Jin in person? The fact that he didn't demote the commander of this invasion? There are a variety of reasons why he would do this. Indifference to China is just one possibility.
 
So what shows that Yelü Dashi didn't care about China at all? The fact he didn't lead his invasion of the Jin in person? The fact that he didn't demote the commander of this invasion? There are a variety of reasons why he would do this. Indifference to China is just one possibility.
Oh boy. Well, the invasion army was apparently small-ish, since otherwise the Khitan capability to wage war and win against the Islamic states of Central Asia would have been greatly hampered. Dashi was confident of his martial prowess, yet he did not go east himself. The commander was not demoted despite this failure and continued to thrive in the Kara Khitai empire. Dashi made no attempt thereafter to regain the east, even after the west was pacified. He shows few signs of caring much for regaining the east, whether he had practical reasons to do so or not is beside the point.

The most widely accepted theory is that the 1134 attack was for homesick contingents of the Kara Khitai and that Dashi himself had no particular attraction to the east as opposed to a new western Khitan state. I believe UNESCO suggests that Dashi may have thought that he would be more famed and successful by creating a new empire than trying to regain an old one.
 
Oh boy. Well, the invasion army was apparently small-ish, since otherwise the Khitan capability to wage war and win against the Islamic states of Central Asia would have been greatly hampered. Dashi was confident of his martial prowess, yet he did not go east himself. The commander was not demoted despite this failure and continued to thrive in the Kara Khitai empire. Dashi made no attempt thereafter to regain the east, even after the west was pacified. He shows few signs of caring much for regaining the east, whether he had practical reasons to do so or not is beside the point.

The most widely accepted theory is that the 1134 attack was for homesick contingents of the Kara Khitai and that Dashi himself had no particular attraction to the east as opposed to a new western Khitan state. I believe UNESCO suggests that Dashi may have thought that he would be more famed and successful by creating a new empire than trying to regain an old one.
I acknowledge that Yelü Dashi might not have cared about China. I'm just not convinced that it's the only reasonable explanation. Yes, the army he sent was probably small (but even if not 70,000, it might still have been a significant force). Maybe he didn't want to risk his entire army in one invasion. Sure, he didn't demote the army's commander. Maybe he found the commander too valuable to demote, given how he continued to promote him. Yes, he didn't lead the army. Maybe it was because he didn't want to be captured by the Jurchen Jin a second time. There are many reasons behind Yelü Dashi's actions, and indifference is just one of them. It's perfectly possible that Yelü Dashi wanted to reconquer the Liao territory, but he never got around to it because he was busy securing the Kara Khitai territory. All of the practical reasons I mention could help explain why he never made a full-fledged attempt to defeat the Jin even if he had a desire to do so. Unless archaeologists find an edict from him saying "The Western Liao will no longer try to conquer the east," we can't say what he thought or didn't think.

I can think, for example, of a post-1900 Chinese regime that definitely wanted to reconquer China, but it had no capability to do so, and therefore it never embarked on a large-scale military campaign. I would not say this regime "didn't care about China." It cared, but its actions were constrained by contemporary realities. The same might have applied with the Kara Khitai.
 
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