WI Xinghai Revolution Early?

Kaze

Banned
Could there be an earlier overthrow of the Qing? And please not the Taipings.

I would go with

a. White Lotus Rebellion of 1796–1804?
b. Or Eight Trigrams uprising of 1813. The latter of which breached the imperial palace itself.
c. Zeng Guofan, Marquis Yiyong. after defeating the Taipings according to legend was handed a note of "What will you do now? Now will you wear yellow?" He proceeded to eat the note rather than let anyone see it. What if he got the idea to topple the Qing there?

Could this lead the China to modernize?
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
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Monthly Donor
a. White Lotus Rebellion of 1796–1804?

How extreme and destabilizing was this sect. Would it allow for more stability than is usually expected of the Taipings?

b. Or Eight Trigrams uprising of 1813. The latter of which breached the imperial palace itself.

What do we know about this one? Was it Kung Fu monks?

c. Zeng Guofan, Marquis Yiyong. after defeating the Taipings according to legend was handed a note of "What will you do now? Now will you wear yellow?" He proceeded to eat the note rather than let anyone see it. What if he got the idea to topple the Qing there?

Out of character, but fun to play out. Of the other leading figures in China of the day, who would rally to him, and who would stick with the dynasty? Some of the key elite players would be Prince Gong, Zuo Zongtang, Li Hongzhang
 

Kaze

Banned
White Lotus Rebellion of 1796–1804?
How extreme and destabilizing was this sect?
It was not very destabilizing other than showing that the Green Army was useless
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Eight Trigrams uprising of 1813.
It was a millenarian Sect, so there was some martial arts but not the nonsense you see in movies. They won the support of Eunuch of the place and attacked the Forbidden city itself. They were repulsed and slaughtered like cattle. However, if one can breach the palace you can in theory take power.
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As for Zeng Guofan. If would be out of character at the time of the Taipings. In his old age he did support the Tongzhi Restoration trying to arrest the dynastic decline of the Qing. The problem would be the rest of the "Ever-Victorious Army" would see him as a traitor biting the hand that feeds him and nine-chances out of ten might turn on him.
 
Some of the Boxers did want this, but others did not. It was a mixed bag. But in theory, the Boxers could do it. The problem is the Westerners that could intervene.

What were the alternative? Did they want to make a kung fu / traditional Chinese version of the Taiping? Or maybe all Chinese millenarian movements blend together.
 

Kaze

Banned
The kung fu was a reaction to the Western Tech - it is akin to the Ghost Dances of the Native Americans trying to wish away all the broken treaties. In OTL the Boxer had many divisions - one group wanted to restore the Ming Dynasty by violent means (they would later become heavy movers in the Triads), one group wanted to put a descendant of Confucius onto the imperial throne - which would be a step backwards and little to no modernization, some were millenarian that believed that the next Buddha has arrived - all the Taiping did was replace Buddha with Jesus, and some wanted the westerners gone at all costs - as soon as they did the "Bone-eating witch" returned to power and strengthened her strangle-hold on the Qing letting western powers butcher all her political enemies. The best option is to get rid of the last group or have them assassinate the "Bone eater".
 
The problem would be the rest of the "Ever-Victorious Army" would see him as a traitor biting the hand that feeds him and nine-chances out of ten might turn on him.

The EVA was only a small part of the forces under Tseng's command against the Tai Ping. Nor was the EVA (commanded by and substantially formed from foreigners) particularly loyal to the Qing.
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
What about an earlier victory of a specifically Xinhai style rebellion, say the one Sun Yat-sen was involved in 1895?
 
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