In GB’s case the ratification was deposited at The Hague November 27 1909 and it was presented to both Houses of Parliament by command of His Majesty, April 1910.
WI: WWI Delayed till 1920
- Thread starter iddt3
- Start date
In GB’s case the ratification was deposited at The Hague November 27 1909 and it was presented to both Houses of Parliament by command of His Majesty, April 1910.
There is no pandemic because there are not a bunch of overcrowded army training camps in the Midwest US.
Might not happen, or at least, it might not be any worse than any other flu epidemic.
Do we know why war wasn't triggered in 1914? The fate of Franz Ferdinand one way or the other would have a great effect on the politics and the military of the Dual Monarchy. Also, I call ASB on Prinzip; two shots fired, two kills of moving targets, after a couple of days practice with his weapon?
Probably butterflied totally. It came with American troops who of course not be here now. And even if influenza still occurs in 1918 it not be so devastate when people health not so badly due lakc of war.
I'd guess presumably Gavrilo Princip chose another cafe to sit at, and so never got the chance to assassinate the Archduke. Or the driver actually asked the directions to the hospital beforehand, and so didn't get lost.
Nor would it have affected as many due to those soldiers never being called up, and thus not spending weeks in cramped training camps.
Weird to think a direct cause of the war breaking out in 1914 was a sandwich
Well, not so much a sandwich as the particular cafe that he picked to have it at.
Aphrodite
Banned
The Spanish Flu epidemic is actually likely to be much worse. It killed by triggering an overreaction by the immune system. Healthy people with a strong immune system but not the specific immunity to the flu were the most vulnerable. Eliminate the mass hunger, the disrupted sanitation and the millions of war wounded, the casualties from the flu should be much higher- though far less than the flu + World War I as in Otl
The flu will be much more restricted to the US, and the infected will be much more likely to be quarantined (they didn't do quarantine OTL due to needing those troops for the war).
Or the driver taking a wrong turn. There was still the assassination attempt by Čabrinović who was captured after throwing the grenade that bounced of the Archdukes car and exploded under the trailing car that may have ramifications.
That was less of a coincidence, the route had been publicised after all.
You never mention Austria. Seeing how bad they were OTL and how they were the last to start to reform their military they can improve the most in the timeframe I think. As I also stated earlier simply the removal of Conrad would be a huge boost to them. Serbia might doubling its army but the austrian would be much stronger compared to OTL as well.
If Romania leaves the CP it means that Austria can fortify the border - seeing that the terrain thats not that hard to do and could have great results. Same is true for Italy.
And if Germany abandones the Schlieffen plan because of the same reasons you listed (mainly the faster Russian mobilization) thats a huge boost to diplomacy. By 1920 the relations between Germany and Great Brittain have likely improved and between Russia and Brittain soured. Add to this that there is no German invasion of Belgium and the brits are likely out. That means that Germany and the CP's cant be blokaded and thats the most important of any possible changes.
Also if Brittain is not engaged on the entente side Japan's position might be very interesting. Their main rivals were the russians and the USA. They could attack either side for easy pickings.
Henriette Caillaux put 4 of 6 slugs into Gaston Calmette and she'd only fired a gun for the first time when she bought the automatic that day. To top it off she was acquitted on the grounds of her 'uncontrollable female emotions' resulting in a crime of passion.
I read that one as well. About her acquittal: Human idiocy is not ASB.
So in essence the flu will have a stronger impact in the area where it breaks out, but will be more restricted in scope and likely never be global.
Derek Pullem
Donor
Will A-H actually be a single country in 1920? Will they make it through the 1917 Ausgleich negotiations?
Logically speaking a stronger than ever Russia should help a great deal to impress upon the hungarians that they are better off enjoying the protection of the Empire. And whats more, according to OP they will.
Aphrodite
Banned
1) I mentioned Austria and their position is worse of all. Sure, they will have some new artillery but they also face many rivals who are all expanding as well. They have Serbia and Romania to the south and Italy to the west to deal with even before turning to a greatly expanded Russia. The planned Austrian expansion is barely enough to deal with Serbia, let alone their many other rivals
2) If Germany abandons the Schlieffen plan? For what? Some batshit nonsense of East First? Seriously, the Germans hate that idea no matter how many fans it has on this board. The Germans are right- East first would result in the Russians declining battle until they are ready to deal the knockout blow to Austria and France quickly over runs the Rhineland
3) Great Britain isn't abandoning France for Germany. If Britain tried to move towards Germany, she is likely to see the Russians and the Germans kiss and make up and face a united continent. How does Britain help Germany? The Germans are looking at 200 French and Russian divisions on their border in three weeks, do you think they give a rat's ass about Britain's six? The last thing the British want is for the victorious Franco-Russian coalition to turn on Britain
there's a reason the British reject the idea of a German alliance in 1902. Nothing has changed to make the idea any better. That Germany is likely to lose a continental war only makes the idea worse
4) Japan? What on Earth is Japan going to do for Germany? If Japan attacks, doubtful, the Russians will simply ignore them until they defeat Germany. After Berlin is occupied and the German fleet turned over, defeating Japan would be icing on the cake
Diplomatically, the interesting thing would have been Franz Ferdinand. He always advocated a peaceful policy and reconciliation with Russia. In the 1890s, he cahmpioned Beck's proposal to split the Balkans. Roughly, this would give Russia Romania, Bulgaria and the straits while Austria got Serbia, Montenegro and Albania. The problem is that by 1914 such a simple division is no longer possible
While that last sentence is largely Edward Grey's position (no matter what he prattled about to Parliament about honor), there certainly were still (a) anti-Russian and (b) anti-Continental streaks through British politics. I doubt Britain will find their way to Germany by 1920, but a different government (and the Liberals may well be out by 1920, in favor of Tories) may detach themselves from Grey and Churchill's manipulations to bind Britain without admitting that's what they did.
Japan was reconciling with Russia, at least in their own minds. Whether Nicholas II shared the desire to let 1904-1905 be bygones is another matter entirely.
A peaceful policy towards Russia, at least. Franz Ferdinand was just waiting until he had a better army and navy, before he'd turn his eyes to Italy. Even his kindest biographers will point out he had a particular distaste for Italy and Italians, but he knew that his nation wasn't ready to fight and win a war.
If, as Emperor, Franz somehow manages to resurrect the League of Three Emperors, there's another possible player at the table. The Japanese, if their pro-authoritarian factions (focused around Yamagata Aritomo) win out, might want to make it a League of Four. They'd dispatched diplomats to St. Petersburg and Berlin in 1912 in the hopes of establishing some level of agreement with Russia and Germany, only to recall them with the death of the Emperor before talks really got underway. Whether any of the other three Emperors want that is another matter entirely, of course.