WI: WWI Delayed till 1920

Without the experience of a continental war to drive it, I don't think that tactical innovations would drive technology (or vice versa) because there's no real reason to change. Even back before '14, successive war plans were more refinements of prior plans than anything else. In OTL nobody learned anything about the primacy of the defense from the Russo-Japanese War or even the Civil Northern War of Aggression between the States.
If the Russians put together an airline in 1914/15, you can bet other countries will follow soon after, so by the time this later WW1 rolls around, the various powers will have much more effective bombers. Who knows, you may even get paratroopers.
 
A wild card for Russia: does Tsarevitch Alexei survive to 1920? That could impact both the Tsar's frame of mind and the political situation if he dies by some misadventure tied to his haemophilia.
Yes. He also really did not seem to like being Czar, does he abdicate without an heir?
 
With the OTL alliance system Germany is screwed, so OP is hard to have happen.

Once you change the alliance system, everything changes, so the war does not start with a Central Powers Attack.

More likely, it's going to be Russian aggressiveness in the Balkans or Caucasus or French/British colonial aggression.

If it is a British move, then Germany probably seeks a diplomatic solution.

If it is French or Russian, then it is probably a war Britain sits out of.

I think the balance of the war depends upon how motorized the German army is ATL 1920.

German economic growth leading up to the war was exponential:

graph.jpg

So, the question is, who stands to gain by a more motorized WW1? I think the army with the doctrine that benefits from it most. I have to say Germany. Schwerpunkt , coined by the press "blitzkrieg," was nothing new. It was standard doctrine for years. After all, Germany beat France in 1870 pretty quickly. German doctrine was always to win a war in a summer, hitting so hard and so fast that they get a favorable peace. If the war is 1920, Germany is not changing to a long war doctrine. Culturally impossible.

The question is, where could they get the favorable peace? I think with a quicker mobilizing Russia, an even more built up France, and a scale too insurmountable with British involvement, Germany is essentially going to go Napoleon in the east and defense in the west--probably an ATL Barbarossa (which originally was a two-pronged offensive straight for Leningrad/Petrograd and Moscow--no Ukraine. The idea would be to crush Russian forces at the border and to race to the cities faster than Russia can form defensive lines. Whether this works really depends upon German preparations to convert Russian rails (which, ITTL is more favorable than 1941 OTL as there is more cautious preparation.)

As Russia ITTL will also have tanks and armored cars (they might have less than Germany ITTL) they will lack the doctrine. I also think, without years of trench warfare, tanks would not be massive behemoths, but more mobile and lightly armed. I am unsure if Germany had enough horse transport to bring things like fuel and ammo behind ATL armored columns. Ultimately, I think the war is decided if Germany can score a sufficient victory before reaching Petrograd. If they actually reach the city limits, Nicholas II sues for a British brokered peace and the war ends. This is not going to be Germany going to the Urals, so it has a chance of success.
 
Yes. He also really did not seem to like being Czar, does he abdicate without an heir?

While Nicholas II didn't enjoy being tsar he was that being holy duty given by God so he is not going abdicate voluntarely no matter is Alexei alive or not. But it is then another thing how the tsar sees things if Alexei dies either 1919 or early 1920.
 
Yes but who is going to come to play in 1920?

Germany realized that its window was fast closing in original timeline so by 1920 it is not going to want to fight France And Russia at the same time. And AH was getting worse not better. So I don’t see anyway on earth that Germany will support AH like it did. So you need AH or better yet Germany being the victim here.
The problem with that is I don’t think you will get England into the war in 1920 if Germany And AH aren’t being the agreesor. England is may very well view this war as an attempt by France to get its lost territory back. And in either case with out Germany invading Belgium I can’t see it entering the war

So thecmost likely war is AH and Russia having it out over whatever excuse that come up with in the Balkans.
France WANTING. to use this as an excuse to get its lost territory back but Germany saying hell no to getting involved.
And England staying out of it all together.

Remember just because we (seam) to be looking for a war that will inevitably end with Germany getting its butt handed to it doesn’t mean a Germany is dumb enough to give it to you. And in 1920 it would be pretty evident that the other side is stronger and that AH is not much use. So Germany is not going to write any checks blank or otherwise.

So WW1 turns into a Russia/AH Balkans war. And you have a lot of folks speculating what would have happened if the war started 4 years earlier...

And I don’t think you see the advancement some seam to hope for. Without WW1 being the bloody mess it Wes on the Western Front a lot of technology and techniques are not going to be developed. And just because the clues exist that should allow the generals to work out what would happen does not mean they will, If you look at the Wars leading into WW1 such as the Civil War, the Crimeon and the Boar To name three as well as the technology increases over the years it should have been enough to warn the Generals what was coming and to hopefully let them figure out ways to avoid it but obviously they didn’t, heck for a good two or three years during the war they didn’t realy change all that much. So just adding in 5 years or so additional technology is not going through change much.
And almost ALL that technology is going to be civilian tech not military. As things like the Fighter Plane and the Tank/tracked war vehicles and such will not be as obvious. Even things like anti sub technology is not going to advance very much without the war as the surface guys are going to look down on the sub (and the airplanes) like they looked down on the airplane vs the battleship in the run up to WW2. Just as Mitchel how well thought of his planes were.
Just because we know what COULD have been developed in those years doesn’t mean it gets developed, Industry is to busy making money by inventing sliced bread and the electronic toaster.
 
When I said they cant keep it up I didnt simply mean they cant afford it. I also ment that the politicans of neither state will be willing to finance the increased costs. In Germany the SPD is stronger than ever and in London the liberals wanted to spend money on other things than the navy and especially Lloyd George's group was very agitated with the ever increasing demands of the Admirality. Especially if the international ituation is changing and GB is distancing itselfs from Russia.

The 1909 Naval scare that resulted in the 'We want 8 and we wont wait!' was a Liberal program. The Liberals were well aware that their 1st duty was to protect the realm. As I've pointed out the RN will build a further 16 capital ships after the 1st 5 Royal Sovereigns and Germany will build 10 between 1914 and 1917. These programs were accepted and publicized even though there was a push on both sides for them to be raised. The SDP doesn't have a chance to impact the German program till after 1918 as the funding is set, the Liberals may not last the Irish Crisis and need Irish MP's support to stay in government past the 1915 General Election. By 1918 the French and Russian programs will be affecting the shape of the German 1918 Naval Law. To appease the British, Tirpitz will up the size of ships (in 1913 he finally agreed/relented to the Kaiser's wish for 'fusion' ships ie. Fast Battleships), not increase over all numbers. The Left wing parties supported increased armaments spending as they could see it led to tax reform to then fund their social programs.
 
A wild card for Russia: does Tsarevitch Alexei survive to 1920? That could impact both the Tsar's frame of mind and the political situation if he dies by some misadventure tied to his haemophilia.
and say he does die, that means Grand Duchess Olga becomes Heir presumptive (since in OTL Empress Alexandra died when she was 46 and i dont think she would have had anymore children by that point*) at some point she would be come Empress of Russia (if she wasn't married off before all of this happened)
*not to say she could have, but i don't think they would have tried to.
 
By 1920:
The Austro-Hungarian Navy will be a Mediterranean Power with four dreadnoughts, four superdreadnoughts, up to a dozen light cruisers, three dozen destroyers and thirty plus submarines.

The French Navy will number some four dreadnoughts, three superdreadnoughts, nine battleships, ten light cruisers, probably eighty to a hundred destroyers and fifty plus submarines.
 

Driftless

Donor
^Add in that portion of British fleet that will be in the Med, and where do the Italians factor in. Greeks and Ottomans too?

The Mediterranean might be a busy naval front....
 
The 1909 Naval scare that resulted in the 'We want 8 and we wont wait!' was a Liberal program. The Liberals were well aware that their 1st duty was to protect the realm. As I've pointed out the RN will build a further 16 capital ships after the 1st 5 Royal Sovereigns and Germany will build 10 between 1914 and 1917. These programs were accepted and publicized even though there was a push on both sides for them to be raised. The SDP doesn't have a chance to impact the German program till after 1918 as the funding is set, the Liberals may not last the Irish Crisis and need Irish MP's support to stay in government past the 1915 General Election. By 1918 the French and Russian programs will be affecting the shape of the German 1918 Naval Law. To appease the British, Tirpitz will up the size of ships (in 1913 he finally agreed/relented to the Kaiser's wish for 'fusion' ships ie. Fast Battleships), not increase over all numbers. The Left wing parties supported increased armaments spending as they could see it led to tax reform to then fund their social programs.
The Liberal Party's response to the "We want eight and we won't wait" press-driven public outcry led to one of my favorite Churchill quotes: "The Admiralty had demanded six ships; the economists offered four; and we finally compromised on eight."
 
and say he does die, that means Grand Duchess Olga becomes Heir presumptive (since in OTL Empress Alexandra died when she was 46 and i dont think she would have had anymore children by that point*) at some point she would be come Empress of Russia (if she wasn't married off before all of this happened)
*not to say she could have, but i don't think they would have tried to.

Russia like most of European monarchies on that era had agnatic succession so after Alexei next on sucession line is Nicholas' younger brother Michael and then crown would pass to Nicholas' cousin Kirill Validimirovich and his male descendants.
 
The French Navy will number some four dreadnoughts, three superdreadnoughts, nine battleships, ten light cruisers, probably eighty to a hundred destroyers and fifty plus submarines.

France had it's Naval Law (Loi du 30.III.12 - Naval Law 20 March 1912). This required a fleet of 28 1st rate battleships and 10 'overseas' cruisers by 1920. By 1914, this was being reassessed and France required a 3 ship margin over the combined A-H and Italian fleets and a single squadron for the Atlantic coast. With the Italians and Austrians building 2nd generation ships the French Naval Staff (EMG) put forward a new plan: 'Project EMG du 10.IV.14' for 34 battleships and 10 battlecruisers. Austria expected a fleet of 10 ships complete or authorised by 1920 leaving Italy to exercise it's customary 4:3 ratio set by Admiral Revel in 1913 and have completed or commenced 13 ships by 1920.
 
^Add in that portion of British fleet that will be in the Med, and where do the Italians factor in. Greeks and Ottomans too?

The Mediterranean might be a busy naval front....

Every European Great Power except Germany had vital interests in the Med. The RN had a 1 Power standard against A-H which will mean a Battle Squadron deployed to Malta. They were negotiating with the Greeks for a base on Argostoli to watch the mouth of the Adriatic and as a hedge against Ottoman collapse and holding the Russians back in the Black Sea. The Ottomans were pressing forward with a 6 Battleship Navy and they would have their 4th unit by 1920, probably a 15" armed ship.
 
One thing that isn't going to show up a lot is Zeppelins. Oh they have a good range, sure, but delaying WW1 means everyone is going to get into an airliner race (starting with Russia's Ilya Muromets class airliners by Igor Sikorsky), which will see speed, range and size rise dramatically, thus making them viable weapons from the get-go.
 
and say he does die, that means Grand Duchess Olga becomes Heir presumptive (since in OTL Empress Alexandra died when she was 46 and i dont think she would have had anymore children by that point*) at some point she would be come Empress of Russia (if she wasn't married off before all of this happened)
*not to say she could have, but i don't think they would have tried to.

No, due to Salic Law. It would have been Nicky's cousin, Grand Duke Kyril, unless the GD Michael was readmitted to the succession. OTL he was removed from it after (iirc) marrying an actress, and only readmitted after war broke out.
 
This is starting to look like a ghastly clusterfcuk.

Nation A builds 1 battleship.
Nations B and C must each build a pair of battleships.
Nation D must build 3 battleships to beat Nation C.
Nation B must build 5 battleships to beat Nations D and C.

Nation A builds another battleship...
 
Somehow, a multifleet battle off Corfu needs to happen with this POD.
The Franco-Russian Naval Agreement from 1912 permitted Russian units to be based at Bizerte in Africa. The Russians were planning on having a 9 ship force in the Eastern Med by 1919 that would probably include the Borodino class battle cruisers a cruiser and 4 destroyers.
 
One thing that isn't going to show up a lot is Zeppelins. Oh they have a good range, sure, but delaying WW1 means everyone is going to get into an airliner race (starting with Russia's Ilya Muromets class airliners by Igor Sikorsky), which will see speed, range and size rise dramatically, thus making them viable weapons from the get-go.
The German Navy was going to have a force of 2 full squadrons of 5 ships each (4 in service and 1 reserve) by 1918. They expected a service life of 4 years and the funding indicated an attrition rate of 50% through accidents ensuring a construction rate of 5 ships per year. They also planned on a force of 50 aircraft of various types again anticipating a 50% attrition rate.

The RN was planning a network of 18 bases around the UK each supporting a 6 plane squadron of flyingboats and a 12 seaplane squadron for an establishment of 324 aircraft, a 6 fold increase from 1914. Aircraft that could be hangared had a 5 year life but only 2 years if left in the elements. The base network was to cost about £2.5m to build the required aprons, ramps, hangars and base buildings while operations were to cost about £2.5m per year. Usually only about half the aircraft would be serviceable at any one time and the RNAS would have nearly 700 pilots by 1920 based on 1914 trends. The RN also planned for a force of 20 airships.

In regards to air travel, once you get beyond 30,000 lb ground weight for land based aircraft then they need concrete runways which is a considerable infrastructure investment. This isn't an issue for flying boats and you just need a large lake. You will probably have railways investing in air travel as they already have the market and know how for 'travel' sector while money would be easy to come by unlike OTL.
 
This is starting to look like a ghastly clusterfcuk.

Nation A builds 1 battleship.
Nations B and C must each build a pair of battleships.
Nation D must build 3 battleships to beat Nation C.
Nation B must build 5 battleships to beat Nations D and C.

Nation A builds another battleship...
Based on their forward plans, public policy and Laws already in place the relationship between the various naval powers form a ratio as such:

GB(10) : US(6) : Ger(6) : Fra(4) : Rus(4) : Jap(3) : Ita(3) : A-H(2)

By 1920 there would be about 200 Dreadnoughts built or building:

LdTlOhZ.jpg


In terms of Alliance structures, Anglo-Japanese Alliance is at 32% of world strength, Central Powers (Ger-AH-Ita) 25%, Franco-Russian 20% and the remaining 23% makes up the non-Aligned countries.
 
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