WI: WW2 without germany?

The Great Pacific War

ok, how about this.

Firstly, no rise of Nazis in Germany. It continues being a bit of a mess but is still a democracy and not a threat to anyone. We still a Facist Italy which has its little adventures and the Spanish Civil War which continues to carry on with Italy supporting Franco and Russia the Republicans. France and GB adopt their OTL policy as it keeps both Italy tied up and means Russia isn't a threat (they both see the commies as the great threat to peace in Europe).

However Japan carries on much as OTL in the Pacific, invades China, etc. The British, Dutch, French and Americans all start to worry. Churchill starts making speeches about the Yellow Peril threatening the Jewel of the Empire-India-and our other eastern colonies.

The British government starts to rearm and focuses efforts in the East. To avoid being associated with Churchill, seen as a dangerous loose cannon (even if they agree with his belief), the government revives the vision of the great Russian bear pouring out of the Kyber Pass, as well as (from a communist Spain) down onto the Rock and out of the Baltic. This threat is seen as a 'real' one by the British public who are use to barbaric Russians as a threat and wouldn't really see the Japanese as a threat.

Defenses are built up in India and the Far East, as well as at home. The development of the Spitfire and Hurricane goes ahead much as before but in a realisation that this will be as much a naval war as anything else, from the outstart naval versions are designed and new carriers are built, older ones modernised and all ships get upgraded AA defenses. To the public this is presented to prevent the winged hosts of the Russian bear reaching out to sink our troop ships. The armny undergoes a similar modernisation as in OTL.

Australia and New Zealand start to rearm, again using the Russian threat as a cover. Both start to build the Spitfire and Hurrican under licence, as well as modern bombers (lets give them the Wellington as soon as its ready). Canada does the same, saying the Russian bear can come across the ice and builds up its Pacific defenses. None of these nations armed forces are any larger than in OTL but they have the latest weapons instead. The biggest difference is India where it undergoes a massive modernisation. The 1st Indian Armoured Brigade is formed, the Royal Indian Air Force is created and from the outset includes modern aircraft (Indian AF hurricanes by 1939). The Indian Navy is also updated and even gets a small carrier. Due to an enlightened governmental approach, India is granted Home Rule. There is some tension as Ghandi promotes peace but in general Indian rearmament goes ahead without any problems.

France also boosts its far eastern defences but is hindered by the lack of a threat to present to the public. The idea of the Russian bear attacking its colonies is laughed away, esp as France is giving covert support to the Republicans in the ongoing Spanish Civil War who alos enjoy widspread publci support in France, and when one politican does a Churchill and warns of Japan he is treated as a laughingstock. The Dutch also start to booster their eastern defences but again are not as successful as the British in getting public support.

In the USA the situation is similar to in GB, the politicans are worried by the actions of Japan but know that the public will not support any sort of rearming to counter it. They start to use the Russian threat, with stories planted in the press of 'secret' commie plots to seize Alaska. The USN is built up and as with the RN the focus is on carriers and modern aircraft.

In Japan at first they view the European buildup as unimportant but by 1939 realise they are in danger of being hemmed in. Things are not helped as more foreign volunteers start to join the Chinese and more modern western equipment reaches them. As early Spitfires and P40s join the Chinese airforce, the Japanese being to realise that its now or never...

Anti-western fever is whipped up in Japan, the improvements in defenses are seen as securing bases to be used to overwhelm Japan and turn into a series of European colonies. Action must be taken now! the Imperial Japanese Navy puts to sea, its targets are Hong Kong, Malaysia, Vietnam, Pearl Harbour and Guam. Intelligence reports start to reach the intelligence agencies in Paris, London and Washington. A RN taskforce, led by the Ark Royal, Prince of Wales and Hood, sets sail from Bombay, on a 'good will tour' of Australia and New Zealand. The Royal Canadian Air Force rushes its newlt delivered radar stations into operation on the Pacific coast and the USN orders it carriers to sea. French Indo-China forces are put on alert and in Holland a number of new built heavy cruisers, intended for service in the far east, cut short their sea trails and set sail...as day dawns on 7th December 1940 air raid alarms start up across the Far East...
 
JimmyJimJam said:
Britain and the UK allied against the US in the 40s is ASB.
Depends how far back the POD is! But given a 30s POD it is nearly impossible.

THE BEST WAR POSSIBLE

Would be Brirish Commonwealth, USA, France, et all

vs.

Soviet Union and Japan

Now it would be unspeakably destructive (possibly worse than OTL) but if the W Allies win (and it is in doubt, I'd say), it gets rid of two of the most brutal regimes on the planet at that time.

Since we a excluding Germany, assume no Nazis. Germany never rearms and stays neutral, but sells "mad goods" to the Allies.

Probable start of the war would be Soviet agression against Baltics / Finns / Poles. And while the Euro-powers are busy Japan does much the same as OTL.

Since there's not potential for a German front, we have to assume that the main (European) fronts will be in Scandinavia (wonder if the WAllies can get Sweden, Norway, and Denmark on board), The Black Sea, Caucausus (if the Brits can get Iran on side), and maybe even in Afghanistan.

Interesting to speculate whether the Japanese would still attack the US, and if so would that bring them into the European War or would they be two seperate conflicts (assuming Japan and the Soviets might be slightly more friendly than OTL, not true allies).
 
Sir Isaac Brock said:
Interesting to speculate whether the Japanese would still attack the US, and if so would that bring them into the European War or would they be two seperate conflicts (assuming Japan and the Soviets might be slightly more friendly than OTL, not true allies).

I think they would still attack the US.
The Japanese , in OTL , didn't belive the US would let them bypass the Phillipines and conquer Indochina and Indonesia , thus gaining acces to oil and rubber resources. Besides , I think the US warned Japan in the early 1940's that if she attacked another nation , it would mean war with the US.

Soviet friendship would probably encourage the Japanese to attack , because they have less reasons to worry about a Soviet attack in Manchuria .
The SU might sell oil to the Japanese in TTL , but the Japanese won't want to be dependent on Soviet resources.
 
Sir Isaac Brock said:
Depends how far back the POD is! But given a 30s POD it is nearly impossible.

THE BEST WAR POSSIBLE

Would be Brirish Commonwealth, USA, France, et all

vs.

Soviet Union and Japan

Now it would be unspeakably destructive (possibly worse than OTL) but if the W Allies win (and it is in doubt, I'd say), it gets rid of two of the most brutal regimes on the planet at that time.

Since we a excluding Germany, assume no Nazis. Germany never rearms and stays neutral, but sells "mad goods" to the Allies.

Probable start of the war would be Soviet agression against Baltics / Finns / Poles. And while the Euro-powers are busy Japan does much the same as OTL.

Since there's not potential for a German front, we have to assume that the main (European) fronts will be in Scandinavia (wonder if the WAllies can get Sweden, Norway, and Denmark on board), The Black Sea, Caucausus (if the Brits can get Iran on side), and maybe even in Afghanistan.

Interesting to speculate whether the Japanese would still attack the US, and if so would that bring them into the European War or would they be two seperate conflicts (assuming Japan and the Soviets might be slightly more friendly than OTL, not true allies).
Let's take this idea, but decide that Germany is not an issue because it was made into several small countries at Versailles in this ATL.
 
Andrei said:
I think it would have been more likely to be Britain+France+Poland+Latvia+Estonia+Finland+Romania+Turkey vs USSR+Hungary+Bulgaria+Lithuania+Japan.

Italy could attack Greece or Yugoslavia to gain some territories , but I don't see fascist Italy and communist Russia fighting on the same side.
The US and USSR might soon be at war with each other.
Siam might join Japan , as in OTL.
Mussolini had been a Socialist. I could see him cooperating with the Soviets, iven if it was via an alliance with Japan.
 
Wendell said:
Mussolini had been a Socialist. I could see him cooperating with the Soviets, iven if it was via an alliance with Japan.

Ok , but I think you have to either eliminate the Spanish Civil War or prevent Italy and/or the USSR to interfere .
This is not very hard , because if the UK and France are strong enough and determined enough to prevent the rearmament of Germany , they should be able to impose an effective blockade on Spain , thus preventing the Italians from sending reinforcements to the Nationalists ( the republicans might win in this case ) .
Mussolini might feel humiliated by this and start cooperating with Stalin , but IMO , he would only enter the war if the Soviets are doing very well ( in OTL he entered the war a few days before the fall of France ).
But if the purges in the Red Army still happen in the late 30's and the Soviets begin the war unprepared ( as they were in OTL when they attacked Finland ) they might not do very well in the beginning of the war.
 
Suppose

Suppose that Japan goes directly home from the WNLT and begins it's war in China.

Let's allow the Japanese considerable success and a large portion of China is incorporated into the Greater East Asia Co Prosperity Sphere by 1928.

Japan, having assimilated China, incorporates large numbers of Chinese into it's Imperial Army.

During the 1930's, Japan LEAVES the WNLT and the London followon in 1930. Immediately, Japan secretly begins enlarging it's navy.

Chokai for example is 50% larger and has 12" guns.

A class of four 55,000T battleships designed with 12x16" are begun, with enlarged follow-on designs of 70,000t an 9x18.1" guns are planned.

Japan builds twice as many SORYU and twice as many SHOKAKU class carriers.

All of this is conducted in secrecy.

In 1939, Japan has a SECRET fleet that is at least as large and powerful as either the USN or RN.

When the Japanese launch their war against the west, they begin by obliterating CAVITE and SINGAPORE, and an invasion of the Phillipines, Dutch East Indies, and Malaya, with an assault on India to follow.

At the same time that Japan attacks in the east, Russia invades Persia and Mesopotamia.
 
I think the most plausible bet is the Russo-Italian Alliance. Mussolini's fascisim circa 1923 was praised by some Russian observers as a synthesis of Bolshevism with Nationalist liberation.

Japan will probably be an oppertunist fox as it had been in WWI, joining up only when confident of one side's victory. In TTL Japan can be falsely confident of Soviet-Italian Victory, which results in Japan Attacking Pearl Harbor as in OTL.

Since Mussolini's "fascist" (In TTL it can be called "National-Bolshevik"), movement has allied itself with Russia. Hitler movement will be regarded as a derivative movement, sympathizing with its enemy Russia, and Communism. Therefore Nazis would be discredited by the Army, the Freikorps and the Right in general and will not be ressurcted after Hitler's release from prison. Germany's new government, will also be aware of its weakness, and will not join the war, and might also take a oppertunist stand.


My Idea for this TL:
WWI - The outcome of Austro-Italian battles results in a complete Italian defeat, most Italian radicals (even communists) become pro-War and anti-Austrian.

1920s - Mussolini is less opposed to communists in Italy and to the USSR, and more opposed to Austria and France, tries to assimilate communists into his movement rather than confronting them. A much larger and more socialistic populist movement called "National Bolshevism" takes power in Italy

1920s -Soviet Union plans to use Italy as its "useful Idiot" in the west. Japan stays on the watch, same with Germany.

1925- Adolf Hitler is Jailed in the Beer Hall Putsch. Looked upon as an Communist/Italian symphatizer, Judges are harder on him, jailing him for 10 years without parole.

1930s - Germany stabilizes under a center-right coalition. Austria is under clerical fascism.

1935 - Italy secures mutual non-agression from a war-weary Germans. German, French and other leftists declare that "The Continent doesn't want another war"

late 1930s -Tha lack of a German threat and promise of Italian support , prompts Russia to invade the east, quickly taking Hungary, the Balkans and Poland.Italy eyes Austria. The West is alarmed, and Britain blockades the USSR's Baltic and Black Sea Ports. Much discussion of re-militarization in the Weimar Parliament derailed by the left.

early 1940s - Communist puppets instituted in the Balkans. Albania formerly annexed as in Italian Province. Greek premier Metaxas requests supports from the British, which he gets in form of British Marines. Britain and France, warn USSR not to invade Greece or Turkey under threats of war. the USSR sends an expeditionary force to the Italian Alps to strengthen Italian defenses.

early 1940s- Japanese and Italian officials meet, and talk about their mutual efforts against "capitalist decadence" and promise not remain peaceful to each other. The Germans, not wanting war again, formerly recognizes communist governments in Poland, Hungary and Yugoslavia. the Soviets agree that as long as Germany is neutral, Danzig will be a free city.

early 1940s- USSR invades Greece, Albania is occupied by Italians. Naval warfare in Red Sea. Submarine Tactics in the baltics. Alpine Skirmishes between France and Italy. England and France declare on USSR and Italy. WWII has started.
 
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MrP

Banned
JLCook said:
Japan, having assimilated China, incorporates large numbers of Chinese into it's Imperial Army.

During the 1930's, Japan LEAVES the WNLT and the London followon in 1930. Immediately, Japan secretly begins enlarging its navy.

Chokai for example is 50% larger and has 12" guns.

A class of four 55,000T battleships designed with 12x16" are begun, with enlarged follow-on designs of 70,000t an 9x18.1" guns are planned.

Japan builds twice as many SORYU and twice as many SHOKAKU class carriers.

In 1939, Japan has a SECRET fleet that is at least as large and powerful as either the USN or RN.

I like the idea of Japan and Russia teaming up malevolently. But I'm not sure if the IJN could have managed so many ships. There were plans to replace the Kongo and Fuso classes. Admiral Hiraga's 1930 project has a 39,200 ton, 10*16", 26.3 knot design for the former, and a 39,250 ton, 9*16", 25.9 knot design for the latter.* If y'can postpone the war for a few years, though - then y'could get Yamato and her two sisters sailing together. Given Japan's success in keeping her real capabilities quiet, I can see the Allies getting a terrible shock. If they aren't forever held in reserve, of course. :rolleyes:

Having the carriers'd be nice for Japan - but ultimately what she needs is a) a larger force of pilots for her fleet. When she entered the war her pilots were very highly trained. However, by the end she was reduced to throwing away youths in kamikaze attacks. Japan also needs b) a larger merchant navy. An incidental consideration is c) don't bother building subs unless you plan to use them properly. :rolleyes: ;)

* pp.37-8, Jentschura, Jung, Mickel, Warships of the Imperial Japanese Navy, 1869-1945, 1999 reprint of 1977 edition, translated by Brown and Preston, 1977
 
JLCook said:
Suppose that Japan goes directly home from the WNLT and begins it's war in China.

Let's allow the Japanese considerable success and a large portion of China is incorporated into the Greater East Asia Co Prosperity Sphere by 1928.

Japan, having assimilated China, incorporates large numbers of Chinese into it's Imperial Army.

During the 1930's, Japan LEAVES the WNLT and the London followon in 1930. Immediately, Japan secretly begins enlarging it's navy.

Chokai for example is 50% larger and has 12" guns.

A class of four 55,000T battleships designed with 12x16" are begun, with enlarged follow-on designs of 70,000t an 9x18.1" guns are planned.

Japan builds twice as many SORYU and twice as many SHOKAKU class carriers.

All of this is conducted in secrecy.

In 1939, Japan has a SECRET fleet that is at least as large and powerful as either the USN or RN.

When the Japanese launch their war against the west, they begin by obliterating CAVITE and SINGAPORE, and an invasion of the Phillipines, Dutch East Indies, and Malaya, with an assault on India to follow.

At the same time that Japan attacks in the east, Russia invades Persia and Mesopotamia.

Its going to be extremely hard for Japan to get all those ships built, especially secretly.
 
I think that Italy and Russia would divide Europe in such a way that the Med would (in theory) become an Italian lake...
 
fenkmaster said:
Its going to be extremely hard for Japan to get all those ships built, especially secretly.


I agree. How do hide a 70,000 ton battleship? Never mind 4 or 5 as they are obviously going to want more than one.
 

MrP

Banned
Mike Stearns said:
I agree. How do hide a 70,000 ton battleship? Never mind 4 or 5 as they are obviously going to want more than one.

Well, y'don't hide it. Y'mislead American and British Intel. The Yamato-class is weird. T'Japanese want to frighten t'Americans into staying at peace, so they build a behemoth of 70,000 tons with the largest guns known to man. Then they hide her existence and pretend she only has 16" guns to keep t'USA from freaking out. Subsequently, she's never used for aught of any import. Weird. :rolleyes:

Plans were for Yamato, Musashi, Shinano, No. 111 and No. 797. 111 was laid down 7 Nov, 1940. 797's contract was never awarded OTL.
 
I also could imagine a non-nazi Germany staying neutral while Britain, France and their Eastern European allies fight the Soviet Union. IIRC that happened in some TL on the 'net where Lettow-Vorbeck becomes chancellor / dictator of Germany.
 
It's hard to find a 30's PoD leading to a WWII between the U.S.A. and the U.K. But I've always thought the Idea of WWI being somehow delayed until the 30s or 40s would lead to a very interesting situation.

The French win big in the Franco-Prussian war seems promising for such a divergence, and it might not disrupt the end industrial outputs / force compositions of the respective nations so much either. Although I have to say, I don't see how the United States could loose such a war. Maybe fail to win it, but being open to invasion by the 30's / 40's?

Maybe if the ASBs replaced Churchil, Hitler, Stalin, Tojo, and whoever the French leader was at the time. (Surrender monkeys! No need to remember their names! :cool: j/K) with evil robots hellbent on the 'Constitution's Destruction' that'd be enough to see major land battles in the Continental USA.

But on Germany staying neutral. What about a Germany that went Communist? Maybe you could see a world war between a revived German Communist state and the SoU for leadership of the communist world? (VVery self-destructive for the ideology, I know!:))
 
Heart of Darkness said:
But on Germany staying neutral. What about a Germany that went Communist? Maybe you could see a world war between a revived German Communist state and the SoU for leadership of the communist world? (VVery self-destructive for the ideology, I know!:))

two different sorts of communism you mean? Say with germany taking the place of China in OTL and after at first getting on, their mistrust of each other turning into a real war?
 

WFHermans

Banned
Germany could use the war between the Big Powers to gobble up some bordering minor countries and wouldn't get involved.
 
Elidor said:
Since Mussolini's "fascist" (In TTL it can be called "National-Bolshevik"), movement has allied itself with Russia.
This TL has a lot of good ideas. However you'll have to make some more fundamental changes than just the name to make Fascism and Communism compatible.

They do have some common ground: the use of state planning in the economy and strong state-enforced moral rules, utopian rhetoric, and a distaste for liberalism, capitalism, and democracy.

However there are some huge gulfs to overcome. The Communists glorified the working classes of all nations. The Fascists glorified their own nation only. The communists sought to overthrow capitalism and create a classless society without private property. Fascists wanted to harness private wealth for the good of the nation, and create a hierarchical society where the powerful and well-born ruled over the "inferior".

And the name National-Bolshevik wouldn't work in any case. The name "Bolshevik" was strongly associated Russian-style Communism (Marxist-Leninism). It's use outside of Russia was almost always as a negative epithet to slander other varieties of socialist. The Bolsheviks had a bad reputation in the West, even among socialists, because their was some indication of the repressions Trotsky and Lenin had visited on follow socialists who didn't back the Red Army (Mensheviks, Radical Socialists, Anarchists, etc.) Even the Russian Party changed it's name in the 20's to Communist Party of the Soviet Union (CPSU) to give it broader appeal.

Hitler movement will be regarded as a derivative movement, sympathizing with its enemy Russia, and Communism. Therefore Nazis would be discredited by the Army, the Freikorps and the Right in general and will not be ressurcted after Hitler's release from prison. Germany's new government, will also be aware of its weakness, and will not join the war, and might also take a oppertunist stand.
The problem is, the same dynamic (upsetting the established classes too much by being too friendly with the Reds) would work against Il Duce too. And he was working in a Monarchy and the home of the Pope! Without monarchist and Catholic support, he is in a tough spot.

My Idea for this TL:
WWI - The outcome of Austro-Italian battles results in a complete Italian defeat, most Italian radicals (even communists) become pro-War and anti-Austrian.

1920s - Mussolini is less opposed to communists in Italy and to the USSR, and more opposed to Austria and France, tries to assimilate communists into his movement rather than confronting them. A much larger and more socialistic populist movement called "National Bolshevism" takes power in Italy
That’s a good start. If the communists didn’t seem to be as “unpatriotic” they wouldn’t have been as hated in Italy, so they might have been allowed into government. But without the Red Scare to justify his autocratic style, what will Mussolini speak against? The Austrians? Even after their empire is broken up?
 
WFHermans said:
Germany could use the war between the Big Powers to gobble up some bordering minor countries and wouldn't get involved.
Which minor bordering countries? Austria? Maybe. The Sudetenland? Perhaps. All of Czechoslovakia? Doubtful. Polish corridor? Extremely unlikely. 1/2 of Poland? Well you saw what happened OTL.

The Allies (anglo-french) are allready fighting the the same side as Cz-Slk or Poland then they become off limits to the Germans.

Now if for some bizzare reason you have the Central Europeans fighting against the Anglo-French (that's one hell of a butterfly) then all bets are off.

Unless your "war between the Big Powers" involves the British fighting AGAINST the French. (!!!). In that case both sides will want to get into Germany's good books, and will ignore any transgressions in the East. But you still have to watch out for the Soviets!

Wow, 30s Europe is complicated!!!
 

Superdude

Banned
Did anyone say anything about a POD in the 30s?

Why not have one during the Russian Revolution? Have a theocratic version of Communism take root among the populace. They defeat the Bolsheviks and incorporate much of the Whites. Then, they institute massive industrial build up to make "God's country" a truly mighty nation.

So, lets say by 1938, this Orthodox Theocracy invades the Balkans, and goes after Constantinople (Istanbul). The British and the French declare war, to prevent this force from gaining the straits. This war gradually grows to encompass the Middle East, Central Asia, and Manchuria, as the Orthodxists invade, bringing the Japanese into the war against them.

From there, this war can go anywhere.
 
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