What if the War ended a year earlier, and how could this be managed to be brought about?
Well, that depends on how it ends and with what result.
An Axis victory in 1944? The change of the outcome is a lot more significant than the change in the date.
Also, what would result from the war ending earlier, and what would that post-war world look like?
Again, that depends on how the war ends and with what result.
One wants V-J Day by 14 August 1944.
Is that possible?
Yes. For instance:
In May 1941, Stalin is finally persuaded to accept the possibility that Germany may attack. He places the forces on the western frontier on partial alert. BARBAROSSA is still a great initial success, but not a
tremendous success. Axis casualties are substantial, Soviet casualties are heavy but not disastrous, and the Axis is checked well short of Moscow and Leningrad.
Rommel is KIA or captured during Operation BATTLEAXE in June 1941, and the Allies break the siege of Tobruk. The Axis retreat through Cyrenaica is disorderly and loss-ridden. Without Rommel's appeal to Hitler, no further German reinforcements for PAA. Tripoli falls to the Allies in September 1941, ending the North African campaign.
With the North Africa campaign ending, the British transfer substantial forces to SE Asia, including veteran Australian divisions and many fighter aircraft.
The Pacific War starts in December. The additional Allied forces in SE Asia delay the fall of Singapore by two months and prevent the fall of Burma. The Burma Road to China remains open.
Down the road: French North and West Africa join the Allies in early 1942. The Allies take Crete and the Aegean islands, and bomb Ploiesti early and often. The Axis 1942 offensive in Russia has limited success, and the Axis is back at its start line by December. Sicily falls in early 1943, and Italy surrenders. The Allies grab Corsica, Sardinia, southern Italy, and Greece. The Soviets drive back the Germans in the north and center.
In September 1943, the Allies make a surprise cross-Channel landing, and liberate half of France by December. The Allies also push forward into Bulgaria and Yugoslavia. The Soviets reach Kiev, Minsk, and Riga.
In December 1943, Romania and Bulgaria surrender to the Allies. Soviet and Western forces meet just north of Bucharest. In winter fighting the Allies liberate Paris and drive to the German border by February 1944.
In February 1944 a giant Soviet winter offensive annihilates Army Group Center and rolls through Poland. Western Allied forces march through Yugoslavia into Hungary, which surrenders in April. So does Slovakia; the Allies continue to Vienna and Prague. In April 1944, the Allies smash German forces west of the Rhine. They cross the Rhine in May, and meet forces from the east in June as Hitler dies in his bunker. V-E Day is 20 June 1944.
Now for the Pacific War. Defeated in Burma, the Japanese fail to take the Andaman Islands. When the Japanese carrier fleet raids into the Indian Ocean, it meets much stronger land-based air and stronger British carrier forces. The Japanese sink
Hermes and
Formidable, but lose
Hiryu to a night torpedo bomber attack. (The Brits can do that - the Japanese can't.)
Akagi and
Soryu also get torpedoed, but get away. Meanwhile,
Shokaku and
Shoho are sunk in the Coral Sea, as is
Lexington. The Japanese attempt the Midway operation with a scratch force of
Kaga,
Zuikaku,
Junyo, and
Ryujo, and lose badly - only
Kaga and
Ryujo survive, and no U.S. carriers are lost, though all three are damaged.
The U.S. takes Guadalcanal, and the Japanese can't counterattack. By January 1943, the Allies have retaken most of the Solomons. In the accompanying carrier battles, the Japanese lose
Soryu,
Kaga, and
Junyo, while the U.S. loses
Saratoga and
Wasp.
Meanwhile - Allied supplies and especially planes flow into Burma and China, hammering the Japanese in those sectors. By mid-1943, re-equipped and retrained Chinese troops are pushing back the Japanese in south China, under the Allied air umbrella.
With the massive drain on air strength in China, the Japanese become extremely vulnerable to attacks on their island "perimeter". In early 1943, the Allies take bases in the Marshall and Gilbert Islands, and then strike the Marianas in mid-1943.
British forces attack into Thailand and liberate Singapore in January 1944. In the same month, Chinese forces retake Canton and reach the coast at Swatow, and American troops land in northern Luzon, cutting the Japanese Empire in half.
American supply can now go directly to the Chinese coast, and the invigorated Chinese quickly liberate Hong Kong, then clear the ports of Changchow, Foochow, and Wenchow. Bombers operating from China lay waste to Japanese cities.
With Germany clearly nearing collapse in early 1944, and Japan falling apart as well, Stalin decides he had better get in on the war in the Far East before he gets shut out of the victory pie. (He didn't get everything he'd hoped for in eastern Europe, for one thing.) He starts sending troops to the Far East in February. In May the USSR declares war on Japan, and Soviet forces overrun Manchuria, Korea, and Karafuto by the end of July.
Chinese forces liberate Hankow, Nanking, and Shanghai, while U.S. forces liberate the Philippines and take Okinawa.
The Japanese war council remains divided, with hardliners calling for resistance to the end. They assert that by meeting an Allied invasion with mass banzai charges and so on, they can inflict shocking casualties and force the Allies to negotiate peace. Then it is pointed out that while this
might work with the Americans, it is not going to work with the Soviets or the Chinese. Better to surrender to the Americans than be exterminated.
When refugees from Karafuto report that Soviet forces are preparing to invade Hokkaido, the Emperor finally intervenes. The surrender is announced on 12 August.
The consequences of all this? That's for another posting.
