katchen
Banned
Delayed WWI an oil war?
Interesting. I suspect that the Balkan trigger would IOTL likely be Albania, which became independent in 1913. More specifically, the problem which nags us today, the Albanian Kosovars. Kosovo is still part of Serbia TTL and Serb persecution of Albanian Kosovars could bring in the Ottomans which could bring in Germany and Austria if Albania has signed with the Central Powers so as not to be absorbed by Italy.
To further complicate matters, Albania has massive oil deposits, some of which are already being exploited: The extent of those oil deposits are indicated by this excerpt from a 6/22/10 article from Forbes:
Which makes it likely that access to petroleum may be the trigger for a delayed World War I
Interesting. I suspect that the Balkan trigger would IOTL likely be Albania, which became independent in 1913. More specifically, the problem which nags us today, the Albanian Kosovars. Kosovo is still part of Serbia TTL and Serb persecution of Albanian Kosovars could bring in the Ottomans which could bring in Germany and Austria if Albania has signed with the Central Powers so as not to be absorbed by Italy.
To further complicate matters, Albania has massive oil deposits, some of which are already being exploited: The extent of those oil deposits are indicated by this excerpt from a 6/22/10 article from Forbes:
- Long record of oil production. Albania’s history with oil dates back some 2,000 years, when the Romans mined bitumen in the southwest (Apollonia, today the city of Fier) to caulk their ships. The first wells were drilled in the early 1900s, with Rockefeller’s Standard Oil and the predecessor of BP, Anglo Persian Oil Company, leading the expansion of Albania’s oil industry. In 1932, the largest European onshore oil field was discovered at Patos-Marinza, now operated by Bankers Petroleum. Oil production only began to dwindle under the poor leadership of Hoxha in the communist era.
- Good fiscal structure for oil. Albania has improved its fiscal structure in the last decade. It’s dropped its production sharing agreements, for example, letting more profits stay with businesses. For those who like the details, here are the latest fiscal terms: an 11% to 15% overriding tax-deductible royalty, with a 50% petroleum tax on the income. The total government take at US$80 oil ranges from the just above 50% for large deposits to closer to 60% for small deposits. That’s slightly lower than the average government take in other developing countries.
- Potential rewards. In 2008, Switzerland-based Manas Petroleum (MNAP)Bankers Petroleum (T.BNK), which in the past two years has taken off from a low of C$0.46 to its high of C$9.18 in early April 2010. announced it found an estimated 3 billion barrels of oil and 3 trillion cubic feet of natural gas at depth. That’s an awful lot of oil.
Which makes it likely that access to petroleum may be the trigger for a delayed World War I