WI WW1 Postponed to 1919

katchen

Banned
Delayed WWI an oil war?

Interesting. I suspect that the Balkan trigger would IOTL likely be Albania, which became independent in 1913. More specifically, the problem which nags us today, the Albanian Kosovars. Kosovo is still part of Serbia TTL and Serb persecution of Albanian Kosovars could bring in the Ottomans which could bring in Germany and Austria if Albania has signed with the Central Powers so as not to be absorbed by Italy.


To further complicate matters, Albania has massive oil deposits, some of which are already being exploited: The extent of those oil deposits are indicated by this excerpt from a 6/22/10 article from Forbes:

  1. Long record of oil production. Albania’s history with oil dates back some 2,000 years, when the Romans mined bitumen in the southwest (Apollonia, today the city of Fier) to caulk their ships. The first wells were drilled in the early 1900s, with Rockefeller’s Standard Oil and the predecessor of BP, Anglo Persian Oil Company, leading the expansion of Albania’s oil industry. In 1932, the largest European onshore oil field was discovered at Patos-Marinza, now operated by Bankers Petroleum. Oil production only began to dwindle under the poor leadership of Hoxha in the communist era.

  1. Good fiscal structure for oil. Albania has improved its fiscal structure in the last decade. It’s dropped its production sharing agreements, for example, letting more profits stay with businesses. For those who like the details, here are the latest fiscal terms: an 11% to 15% overriding tax-deductible royalty, with a 50% petroleum tax on the income. The total government take at US$80 oil ranges from the just above 50% for large deposits to closer to 60% for small deposits. That’s slightly lower than the average government take in other developing countries.

  1. Potential rewards. In 2008, Switzerland-based Manas Petroleum (MNAP)Bankers Petroleum (T.BNK), which in the past two years has taken off from a low of C$0.46 to its high of C$9.18 in early April 2010. announced it found an estimated 3 billion barrels of oil and 3 trillion cubic feet of natural gas at depth. That’s an awful lot of oil.
So with the Ottomans having the Middle East oilfields sewed up (unless the British can work something out with the Saudis on territory the Ottomans claim, which is another bone of contention with the Central Powers, the largest new oilfields will be in either the Ottoman Empire, ( Iraq),), Alllied central Powers (WAlbania), Persia , disputed Ottoman (KuwaIt, Saudi or ashidi Arabia?, Trucial States, Bahrain, Qatar, Oman), difficult for allies to access (Ploesti Romania), in the East Indies or Burma, a long way away, or in the United States.

Which makes it likely that access to petroleum may be the trigger for a delayed World War I:(
 
Don't forget, Britain may see a civil war in Ireland in 1914, it was very much heading that way when the outbreak of war knocked things sideways.

Would the Albanian crisis have delayed itself to 1919? It was in full flow in 1914, and there were tensions regarding joint patrols etc. By 1919, either William would have found enough allies to consolidate his position, or he would be completely gone a la Alexander of Battenberg. If he's gone, have they found a new king that an alliance of factions can accept (a la Ferdinand of Coburg) or have they accepted a native claim (Zogu?) who has been able to create a stable coalition?

Of course, they could have tried 1) and ended up with 2), and the powers might be conspiring to get rid of Zogu (or c) anyway.

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
Don't forget, Britain may see a civil war in Ireland in 1914, it was very much heading that way when the outbreak of war knocked things sideways.
...

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

Contariwise, there was a Home Rule bill in process, iirc, that got totally derailed by the war. Absent the war, Ireland could have been settled, one way or another, before the delayed war broke out.
 
With W.W. I not starting until 1919, I'm not sure Wilson wins a second term. His 1916 campaign was based on the slogan "He Kept Us Out of War". The U.S. economy was booming in no small part due to the war. With no war and Wilson narrowly winning in the Electoral College in OTL, it's possible the Republicans come back from the Taft/Roosevelt debacle of 1912 with a vengeance.
 
What thee says. I heard that the Germans were going to change the Schlieffen Plan & the alliance system of Europe was beginning to change again. So, what happens between 1914 and 1919 and how dose this different Great War progress?
When I saw the thread title, my first thoughts were literally "waterlogged pitch?"

Events would dictate the course of any such war. Both the technology and the personalities could have changed.
 
Russia will endure a very hard winter in 1917 and it might be enough to cause internal warfare. Should this occur Germany would be hard-pressed not to take advantage of the situation. Either way her industries will be pitifully prepared for an army that numbered what, 5 million? She must prepare more effectively and get rid of Rasputin lest the history of the Tsardom be merely delayed and not wholly changed. Their air force would be interesting to see and the innovations from Imperial Russia might give them unique tech edges depending on what evolves.

Ottoman modernization will lead to even greater underestimation of their abilities, and in the wakening pan-Arab spirit they are the natural leaders. I could see them trying to use this in their favor, though neutrality is probably their best road regardless.

Austria-Hungary still faces implosion, but what will Franz Ferdinand be like as an Emperor? He appears to have been trained for the job but I am not as sure he will govern as well as he hunts. Without proper management and a skilled statesman at the helm, AH is likely to implode.

France reduces its army and is less prepared when the war hits. Generals will favor a plan XVII-like strategy and her troops will probably be ground into hamburger along the frontier trying to reclaim Alsace-Lorraine.

UK faces an Ireland in turmoil and her (peacetime) army will be more prepared and experienced when war hits. I expect the war there will be bloody on a scale that will shock and awe but ultimately it gets put down *hard* by the UK, perhaps to the point of provoking an international response.

USA will continue to industrialize with further developments in engine tech and attention to problems in neighboring Mexico. Otherwise not sure that there will be any other significant changes.

Germany will have stronger chemical industries and probably better navy/submarines but otherwise she will have had more time to stockpile. Her preparedness will be needed to compensate for a lackluster Austrian performance though depending on the alliances in question other outcomes are possible. She will pick up the northern part of Angola and possible Mozambique which will be split with the UK in 1914 (nearly got divided in OTL and plans were on the board for a seizure of those assets).
 

katchen

Banned
I think Stoyanov will like me for this. I think Bulgaria would have been the key to stabilizing the Balkans and in particular, Albania and Derbia. IOTL, it was Bulgaria which engaged in a joint occuaption with Austria Huhgary of Albania and advanced King Zogu, putting down the Peasant Rebellion of 1914. Bulgaria would have had an interest in keeping the Allies in general and Greece and Italy in particular out of Albania.

The same with Serbia. Short of butterflying away the assasination of Archduke Francis ferdinand altogether, the best way for Austria-Hungary to defuse the situation would have been to enlist Bulgaria's aid in chastising or even merging with Serbia. In that case, it would have been Slav on Slav and Russia would not have been outraged the way Russia was that Austria-Hungary was attacking a Slavic country.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
With W.W. I not starting until 1919, I'm not sure Wilson wins a second term. His 1916 campaign was based on the slogan "He Kept Us Out of War". The U.S. economy was booming in no small part due to the war. With no war and Wilson narrowly winning in the Electoral College in OTL, it's possible the Republicans come back from the Taft/Roosevelt debacle of 1912 with a vengeance.

More than possible. Likely. It was close anyway. Add a couple points to unemployment from no boom, and we have Hughes or someone else in the White House.
 
Concerning spanish flu - I think it might be butterflied away - As it seems plausible that the US boys brought it over to Europe - it might be a smaller epidemic more in the US than Europe. (First described by an US doctor in Haskell County - then in camp Funston (where men from Haskell county were) - from there it spread and landed in Brest France...

So assuming the flu is contained in HAskell county TTL as the US does not build an army - its butterflied away.

OTOH if it spreads to Europe it might prevent the outbreak of hostilities in 1919 as governments are more concerned in battling the flu.
 
The alliances could also change, who's to say Russia wont ally with Germany, and the Ottomans with France?
 
Interesting. I suspect that the Balkan trigger would IOTL likely be Albania, which became independent in 1913. More specifically, the problem which nags us today, the Albanian Kosovars. Kosovo is still part of Serbia TTL and Serb persecution of Albanian Kosovars could bring in the Ottomans which could bring in Germany and Austria if Albania has signed with the Central Powers so as not to be absorbed by Italy.


To further complicate matters, Albania has massive oil deposits, some of which are already being exploited: The extent of those oil deposits are indicated by this excerpt from a 6/22/10 article from Forbes:

  1. Long record of oil production. Albania’s history with oil dates back some 2,000 years, when the Romans mined bitumen in the southwest (Apollonia, today the city of Fier) to caulk their ships. The first wells were drilled in the early 1900s, with Rockefeller’s Standard Oil and the predecessor of BP, Anglo Persian Oil Company, leading the expansion of Albania’s oil industry. In 1932, the largest European onshore oil field was discovered at Patos-Marinza, now operated by Bankers Petroleum. Oil production only began to dwindle under the poor leadership of Hoxha in the communist era.

  1. Good fiscal structure for oil. Albania has improved its fiscal structure in the last decade. It’s dropped its production sharing agreements, for example, letting more profits stay with businesses. For those who like the details, here are the latest fiscal terms: an 11% to 15% overriding tax-deductible royalty, with a 50% petroleum tax on the income. The total government take at US$80 oil ranges from the just above 50% for large deposits to closer to 60% for small deposits. That’s slightly lower than the average government take in other developing countries.

  1. Potential rewards. In 2008, Switzerland-based Manas Petroleum (MNAP)Bankers Petroleum (T.BNK), which in the past two years has taken off from a low of C$0.46 to its high of C$9.18 in early April 2010. announced it found an estimated 3 billion barrels of oil and 3 trillion cubic feet of natural gas at depth. That’s an awful lot of oil.
So with the Ottomans having the Middle East oilfields sewed up (unless the British can work something out with the Saudis on territory the Ottomans claim, which is another bone of contention with the Central Powers, the largest new oilfields will be in either the Ottoman Empire, ( Iraq),), Alllied central Powers (WAlbania), Persia , disputed Ottoman (KuwaIt, Saudi or ashidi Arabia?, Trucial States, Bahrain, Qatar, Oman), difficult for allies to access (Ploesti Romania), in the East Indies or Burma, a long way away, or in the United States.

Which makes it likely that access to petroleum may be the trigger for a delayed World War I:(
I like the general idea, though Italy was actually a member of the Central powers until the war broke out. So for this to have the desire effect, Italy will have to leave the CP.

With W.W. I not starting until 1919, I'm not sure Wilson wins a second term. His 1916 campaign was based on the slogan "He Kept Us Out of War". The U.S. economy was booming in no small part due to the war. With no war and Wilson narrowly winning in the Electoral College in OTL, it's possible the Republicans come back from the Taft/Roosevelt debacle of 1912 with a vengeance.
I agree. The difference between the 1916 election in OTL was Hughes miffing California governor Hiram Johnson. In this timeline Wilson's position will be significantly weaker and Johnson (at least, I'm assuming he'll still be the nominee) will win. What effect that has on the possibility of American intervention is unclear to me, as Hughes was the "preparedness" candidate. Though then again, without a war in the backdrop during the campaign, the Republican isolationist tendencies might display themselves as another poster in this thread speculated.

The alliances could also change, who's to say Russia wont ally with Germany, and the Ottomans with France?
No. Russia and Germany are diametrically opposed to each other at this time for a number of reasons, as are Germany and France.
 
[I like the general idea, though Italy was actually a member of the Central powers until the war broke out. So for this to have the desire effect, Italy will have to leave the CP.

No really unpossible, by 1914 the alliance was at his last leg and barred some diplomatic revolution is difficult that thing will lasted for more.
Regarding Albania and the CP well the unspoken accord between Italy and A-H was that Albania remain neutral as his strategic position is too important to both nations and Tirana signing an alliance with the CP can really create a big diplomatic crisis at least between A-H and Italy and this cand degenerate
 
I remember reading Albertini about closer Greek-Ottoman relations in 1914 prior to the war, being sponsored by Germany.

I never really dug into this, as I don't have access to him now

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
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