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Lets assume that instead of FDR we get a fascist-sympathetic, it not outright fascist, administration in the USA. Instead of the Atlantic Charter IOTL there is an agreement with Germany to dismantle what is left of the British Empire.

The USA is still hostile to Japan, and vice versa, so for lack of alternatives the UK and Japan have to draw close to each other, and close to the USSR since Barbarossa still happens.

How does that war go? My first thought is the Axis wins, but there may be valid counter-arguments.
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