WI: Winter War Differences

[okmangeez]

What PoDs are necessary for Finland to see the writing on the wall (that war with Russia was inevitable) and prepare for the Winter War enough to force Russia to a stalemate?

Is it possible that after the occupation of the Baltic States, some of their military forces could make secretly make their way into Finland (Estonia and Finland had really close military cooperation)? Can additional volunteers from Sweden and the West make a difference?

 

[ObssesedNuker]

Magic. Additional little bits of this or that might drag things out slightly and add a bunch of extra Russian bodies, but between Stalin's indifference to losses, the sheer disparity in numbers, and the distraction of the only other major powers in any position to intervene (Britain, France, and Germany) there is no way for Finland to actually stalemate the Red Army.

 

[thaddeus]

Magic.

think it would take the same for German-Soviet Pact (M-R Pact) to place Finland in German sphere of influence? maybe in return for OTL Lithuania and/or larger Soviet section of Poland?

 

[okmangeez]

think it would take the same for German-Soviet Pact (M-R Pact) to place Finland in German sphere of influence? maybe in return for OTL Lithuania and/or larger Soviet section of Poland?

Isn't it entirely possible that the Germans could possibly support the Finns and the Russians to be deflected if the Finns had a steady amount of equipment (and up to date equipment) and had several more divisions to assist in the defense?

 

[thaddeus]

Isn't it entirely possible that the Germans could possibly support the Finns and the Russians to be deflected if the Finns had a steady amount of equipment (and up to date equipment) and had several more divisions to assist in the defense?

Germany needed the collaboration with USSR to be able to wage war, they cannot join in Winter War on Finnish side. my question was whether they could have negotiated Finland to be in their sphere of influence prior to Soviet invasion.

have no idea? Germany did have legit economic interests in Finland on the other hand it could be viewed as transparent launching point for invasion of USSR at later date.

 

[trurle]

Germany needed the collaboration with USSR to be able to wage war, they cannot join in Winter War on Finnish side. my question was whether they could have negotiated Finland to be in their sphere of influence prior to Soviet invasion.

have no idea? Germany did have legit economic interests in Finland on the other hand it could be viewed as transparent launching point for invasion of USSR at later date.

Given the USSR never intended to honour the agreement with Germany in long term, the terms assigning Finland to German sphere are highly improbable. Placing an eventually hostile entity in artillery range (32km) of second-largest city and the main port of state (Leningrad) is the strategic madness.
As about PODs giving Finns greater awareness, it is also meaningless. The Finnish civil war events, and later tensions about periodic Soviet incursions inter-war were already well understood as the prelude for the eventual war.
What Finnish people may benefit is large-scale export-oriented arms company similar to Swedish Bofors. Such company provide both direct military and political/diplomatic benefits. In general, because understanding of threat environment was better in Finland compared to say Poland, the Finland may even replicate the fate of Sweden or Swiss - avoid invasion altogether. I do not know why the business opportunity was not implemented IOTL though.

 

[History Learner]

Delay the war until the Spring of 1940. The thaw will turn much of Southern Finland into a giant marsh, while logistic constraints (Artillery and Anti-Tank production was not geared up in time IOTL) as well as new equipment (Namely Western planes and more volunteers, for example) will arrive.

 

[trurle]

Delay the war until the Spring of 1940. The thaw will turn much of Southern Finland into a giant marsh, while logistic constraints (Artillery and Anti-Tank production was not geared up in time IOTL) as well as new equipment (Namely Western planes and more volunteers, for example) will arrive.

Finland was very reluctant to use foreign volunteers in combat due inevitable diplomatic problems. Positions of Finland were too weak to risk renouncing some trade/peace treaties with Western states by utilizing mostly pro-Axis volunteers, and opposite way too. As about starting war in mud season, this is clearly ASB. Soviets planners were miscalculating, but were not the stone-age cave cave dwellers.

 

[okmangeez]

Given the USSR never intended to honour the agreement with Germany in long term, the terms assigning Finland to German sphere are highly improbable. Placing an eventually hostile entity in artillery range (32km) of second-largest city and the main port of state (Leningrad) is the strategic madness.
As about PODs giving Finns greater awareness, it is also meaningless. The Finnish civil war events, and later tensions about periodic Soviet incursions inter-war were already well understood as the prelude for the eventual war.
What Finnish people may benefit is large-scale export-oriented arms company similar to Swedish Bofors. Such company provide both direct military and political/diplomatic benefits. In general, because understanding of threat environment was better in Finland compared to say Poland, the Finland may even replicate the fate of Sweden or Swiss - avoid invasion altogether. I do not know why the business opportunity was not implemented IOTL though.

It could be possible that Germany secretly arms the Finns behind the Soviet's back in order to destabilize and weaken the USSR when Germany strikes east. Also, by using Finland as an experiment, Germany can see the capabilities of Russia and make them lose prestige and face.

I believe Germany did, in fact, approach the Finns during the Winter War with several offers that involved weapons shipment, but were rejected by the Finnish government.

Delay the war until the Spring of 1940. The thaw will turn much of Southern Finland into a giant marsh, while logistic constraints (Artillery and Anti-Tank production was not geared up in time IOTL) as well as new equipment (Namely Western planes and more volunteers, for example) will arrive.

The good part of the war starting in the winter was that many Soviets froze in the harsh winter, though tanks would be neutralized if the Soviet offensive happened during summer (when lakes, ponds, and swamps weren't frozen over, which easily allowed tanks and armored vehicles to advance).

Finland was very reluctant to use foreign volunteers in combat due inevitable diplomatic problems. Positions of Finland were too weak to risk renouncing some trade/peace treaties with Western states by utilizing mostly pro-Axis volunteers, and opposite way too. As about starting war in mud season, this is clearly ASB. Soviets planners were miscalculating, but were not the stone-age cave cave dwellers.

But if the situation came to the point where Finland could potentially hold the Soviets with few divisions, wouldn't Finland not be as reluctant to use volunteers? After all, the men were volunteers.

Is there any possible PoD where the Soviets advance in the spring or summer? Perhaps have it so that Stalin listens to his planners and allows them to prepare the logistics to invade Finland, thus delaying the invasion by a few months?

 

[trurle]

The good part of the war starting in the winter was that many Soviets froze in the harsh winter, though tanks would be neutralized if the Soviet offensive happened during summer (when lakes, ponds, and swamps weren't frozen over, which easily allowed tanks and armored vehicles to advance).

Soviet tanks were neutralized in winter anyway. With Soviet tactics, mass losses and captures were inevitable, regardless of state of ground. Finnish army, on the other hand, fought with captured Soviet tanks till the end of WWII.

But if the situation came to the point where Finland could potentially hold the Soviets with few divisions, wouldn't Finland not be as reluctant to use volunteers? After all, the men were volunteers.

They were FOREIGN volunteers. It is very difficult to distinguish between allowing to operate volunteers and allowing to operate a full foreign army.

Is there any possible PoD where the Soviets advance in the spring or summer? Perhaps have it so that Stalin listens to his planners and allows them to prepare the logistics to invade Finland, thus delaying the invasion by a few months?

In summer-may be. May be as some tactical experiment/blunder about usage of amphibious vehicles. Development of reliable enough water-jet propulsion system for tanks may compel Soviets to think summer Finland is traversable.

 

[okmangeez]

Soviet tanks were neutralized in winter anyway. With Soviet tactics, mass losses and captures were inevitable, regardless of state of ground. Finnish army, on the other hand, fought with captured Soviet tanks till the end of WWII.

They were FOREIGN volunteers. It is very difficult to distinguish between allowing to operate volunteers and allowing to operate a full foreign army.

In summer-may be. May be as some tactical experiment/blunder about usage of amphibious vehicles. Development of reliable enough water-jet propulsion system for tanks may compel Soviets to think summer Finland is traversable.

Is the idea of a stalemate Winter War feasible though?

Basically, the PoD can be before the Winter War. The main objective is for the Soviet Union to go into the war, suffer more casualties than OTL due to the Finns having adequate equipment, and is unable to break the Mannerheim Line (assuming it's more fortified and better built).

 

[trurle]

Is the idea of a stalemate Winter War feasible though?

Basically, the PoD can be before the Winter War. The main objective is for the Soviet Union to go into the war, suffer more casualties than OTL due to the Finns having adequate equipment, and is unable to break the Mannerheim Line (assuming it's more fortified and better built).

Not impossible, but would be extremely difficult. General historical consensus is what even in mainstream history the Finns were over-performed while Soviets under-performed. It would be difficult even to justify OTL development of Winter War in DBWI (double-blind what-if) topic.

 

[History Learner]

The good part of the war starting in the winter was that many Soviets froze in the harsh winter, though tanks would be neutralized if the Soviet offensive happened during summer (when lakes, ponds, and swamps weren't frozen over, which easily allowed tanks and armored vehicles to advance).

With Southern Finland turning into marsh, it pretty much makes mechanized warfare impossible for the Soviets and forces them to channel their forces into areas where the Finns can concentrate their defenses to make use of their smaller numbers.

Finland was very reluctant to use foreign volunteers in combat due inevitable diplomatic problems. Positions of Finland were too weak to risk renouncing some trade/peace treaties with Western states by utilizing mostly pro-Axis volunteers, and opposite way too. As about starting war in mud season, this is clearly ASB. Soviets planners were miscalculating, but were not the stone-age cave cave dwellers.

Even ignorning the volunteer bit, getting artillery and AT sorted out along with additional modern aircraft will allow them to give the Soviets a much tougher time of it. As far as delaying the war, it's immensely possible. Stalin tried to get a land exchange with the Finns, before they refused and he went with the war option. Have the Finns accept, and its likely Stalin will wait until the Spring. Otherwise, just have the border battles with the Japanese drag on longer.

 

[ObssesedNuker]

think it would take the same for German-Soviet Pact (M-R Pact) to place Finland in German sphere of influence? maybe in return for OTL Lithuania and/or larger Soviet section of Poland?

I don't see it. Part of the reason for Soviet fixation on Finland was, as already mentioned, it's proximity to Leningrad. That the Finns had once been part of the Russian Empire was also a factor...

 

[okmangeez]

With Southern Finland turning into marsh, it pretty much makes mechanized warfare impossible for the Soviets and forces them to channel their forces into areas where the Finns can concentrate their defenses to make use of their smaller numbers.



Even ignorning the volunteer bit, getting artillery and AT sorted out along with additional modern aircraft will allow them to give the Soviets a much tougher time of it. As far as delaying the war, it's immensely possible. Stalin tried to get a land exchange with the Finns, before they refused and he went with the war option. Have the Finns accept, and its likely Stalin will wait until the Spring. Otherwise, just have the border battles with the Japanese drag on longer.

We're going to assume that the Finns are much better prepared for a possible Soviet attack, which slightly delays the invasion due to Stalin allowing his generals to prepare logistics and supplies (instead of just pushing the Red Army into Finland without any preparations).

What next? And what is the absolute best that Finland can do?

I don't see it. Part of the reason for Soviet fixation on Finland was, as already mentioned, it's proximity to Leningrad. That the Finns had once been part of the Russian Empire was also a factor...

Isn't it possible that Finland holds out long enough to negotiate a more favorable treaty that doesn't involve them giving up 11% of their economy?

Not impossible, but would be extremely difficult. General historical consensus is what even in mainstream history the Finns were over-performed while Soviets under-performed. It would be difficult even to justify OTL development of Winter War in DBWI (double-blind what-if) topic.

The Finns would've performed even better if they were actually adequately equipped with rifles, mortars, anti tank guns, fighters, and MGs. I think Finland did the absolute best it could with the equipment it had at hand. With better equipment? The Soviets are in for a bigger and bloodier battle.

 

[Jukra]

What PoDs are necessary for Finland to see the writing on the wall (that war with Russia was inevitable) and prepare for the Winter War enough to force Russia to a stalemate?

Is it possible that after the occupation of the Baltic States, some of their military forces could make secretly make their way into Finland (Estonia and Finland had really close military cooperation)? Can additional volunteers from Sweden and the West make a difference?

Much better armed Finland is techically a possibility but would require a completely different economic thinking. If, even in 1938, leading parties and the president accept that the war is coming and decide to throw economic caution out of the window, introduce new taxation and aggressive loaning the Finnish armed forces would be vastly better prepared for the onslaught. Essentially the 1939-1941 economic mobilization already in 1938.

But as aversion to foreign loans has always been the pivot of Finnish economic thinking it's ASB. Maybe an airplane accidentally hits Bank of Finland board in an unlikely accident?

One issue is, of course, that if Finland is seen as better prepared the Soviets may just insert more troops from the outset, instead of waiting till the offensive stalled. On the other hand, if Finnish artillery has enough shells the Soviet offensive is probably screwed.

 

[Creidiki]

Give Finns more artillery and enough shells in Karelian Isthmus and there may be a snowballs chance in hell that Russians bog down until summer of 1940. North of Lake Ladoga was basically a side show, even with Raate annd Suomussalmi victories the war was essentially won or lost in the Karelian Isthmus before Vyborg. Finns were critically short of modern artillery, anti tank and shells and suffered for it.

 

[thaddeus]

Magic.

think it would take the same for German-Soviet Pact (M-R Pact) to place Finland in German sphere of influence? maybe in return for OTL Lithuania and/or larger Soviet section of Poland?

I don't see it. Part of the reason for Soviet fixation on Finland was, as already mentioned, it's proximity to Leningrad. That the Finns had once been part of the Russian Empire was also a factor...

probably correct. my scenario always sees Germany being able to deal over Poland-Romania and leaving other countries aside but that may not have been possible.

with hindsight maybe Germans should have pressured Finland into accepting the Soviet territorial swaps? re-reading some of this and Mannerheim even was willing to make some of the concessions on grounds the islands requested were indefensible?

(basically what they forced Romania to do later in 1940)

 

[okmangeez]

Give Finns more artillery and enough shells in Karelian Isthmus and there may be a snowballs chance in hell that Russians bog down until summer of 1940. North of Lake Ladoga was basically a side show, even with Raate annd Suomussalmi victories the war was essentially won or lost in the Karelian Isthmus before Vyborg. Finns were critically short of modern artillery, anti tank and shells and suffered for it.

So it is possible if they had the necessary equipment? If they had enough artillery, anti-tank, fighters, rifles, and the such, would it be definitely possible to delay the Soviets?

probably correct. my scenario always sees Germany being able to deal over Poland-Romania and leaving other countries aside but that may not have been possible.

with hindsight maybe Germans should have pressured Finland into accepting the Soviet territorial swaps? re-reading some of this and Mannerheim even was willing to make some of the concessions on grounds the islands requested were indefensible?

(basically what they forced Romania to do later in 1940)

The premise of this Winter War is that Finland still rejects the Soviet demands per OTL and manages to fend off the Soviets long enough to force the Soviets on to the negotiation table, with the treaty ending in Finland's favor.

 

[riggerrob]

Finnland already led the world in sub-machine gun and light machine gun design.
The next step is improving Finnland's anti-tank armament. If the Llahti 20mm anti-tank rifle was introduced a few months earlier, it could drastically changed the outcome of the Winter War. OTL only a pair of 20mm Llahtis were ready for battle.
After the Winter War, Finnland would need to develop larger calibre AT and eventually AT rockets .... excellent opportunities for a small nation to profit from arms exports.

OTL The Winter War proved so disasterous - for - Russia that Finnish soldiers carried captured Russian rifles for decades after the war.

Perhaps a Finland wank would include victorious Finns selling arms technology to WALLIES or the highest bidder.