In the 1996 NZ election, at a point in the campaign the Labour Party was poling around 16%, and faced losing its status as the second party to the Alliance or NZ First. However, with a strong performance in the election debates Labour leader Helen Clark overcame her previous unpopularity and surged to come just behind National and well above all the other parties, only losing out on becoming Prime Minisyer that year when Winston Peters unexpectedly went with National. But, what if Clark hadn't done as well in the debates, and Labour had continued to languish in the polls? Here are my alternate results
1996 NZ election
Jim Bolger-National: 49+8 37.84%
Winston Peters-NZ First: 24+19 18.35%
Helen Clark-Labour: 20-21 15.39%
Jim Anderton-Alliance: 17+15 13.10%
Richard Prebble-ACT: 8+8 6.10%
Peter Dunne-United: 2-5 1.38%
120 seats
61 for majority
National does better than OTL and does better than its 1993 performance under FPP, however National, ACT and United Future only add up to 59 seats, short of a majority. Labour meanwhile has been relegated to third-party status, and Winston Peters is Leader of the Opposition with a caucus of 24 MPs. What would be the effects of this outcome? What government would be formed in 1996 after this result? How would NZ politics progress from here? What if?
1996 NZ election
Jim Bolger-National: 49+8 37.84%
Winston Peters-NZ First: 24+19 18.35%
Helen Clark-Labour: 20-21 15.39%
Jim Anderton-Alliance: 17+15 13.10%
Richard Prebble-ACT: 8+8 6.10%
Peter Dunne-United: 2-5 1.38%
120 seats
61 for majority
National does better than OTL and does better than its 1993 performance under FPP, however National, ACT and United Future only add up to 59 seats, short of a majority. Labour meanwhile has been relegated to third-party status, and Winston Peters is Leader of the Opposition with a caucus of 24 MPs. What would be the effects of this outcome? What government would be formed in 1996 after this result? How would NZ politics progress from here? What if?