WI: William Harrison does not get the 1840 presidential nomination?

It could also be Winfield Scott in 1840. As to the second point, last I checked the Curse of Tippecanoe isn't actually real. So Lincoln could or could not get assassinated- getting rid of Harrison isn't the deciding factor.
 
The best way for this to happen is simply for Harrison to die a bit sooner.

If he dies in 1839, the anti-Clay people dominate, and Scott is probably nominated and (for good or ill) elected. If OTOH, he dies in 1840, during the campaign, then Clay's chances are far better, since by then it's becoming clear that virtually any Whig can win.

As for Lincoln, there's simply no knowing. Removing Harrison also removes Tyler, so even the Annexation of Texas could be butterflied away, and with it the Mexican War. That in turn removes the political turmoil that led to the Compromise of 1850. In short the next twenty years are going to be totally rewritten, and there's no guarantee that Lincoln will ever be heard of as a Presidential prospect. Anything could happen.
 
Henry Clay is the nominee.

Not necessarily. To recycle an old soc.history.what-if post of mine:

***

(1) 1840 election--the 1839 Whig convention is often looked at as a
Harrison versus Clay contest, but in fact Scott for a while seemed to have
reasonable prospects of getting the nomination. He had won enormous
popularity in western New York in particular, not only for his role in the
War of 1812, but for the way he had helped defuse US-Canadian tensions in
the late 1830's. After several ballots, there were 96 votes for Clay, 91
for Harrison, and 68 for Scott. Thurlow Weed had gotten Connecticut to
switch from Clay to Scott, and was preparing to approach some delegates
from the South, where he knew there was some Scott sentiment, especially in
North Carolina and Virginia.

Unfortunately for Scott, Harrison's supporter Thaddeus Stevens beat Weed to
the punch. Stevens had somehow obtained a letter that Scott had written to
Francis Granger of New York in a clumsy bid to attract antislavery support.
Stevens showed the letter to the Virginia delegates, and it had the
expected effect: the Virginians dropped all talk of switching to Scott,
and made it clear that if they deserted Clay, it would be for Harrison. As
soon as Weed realized Scott would get no Southern support, he swung the
votes he commanded into the Harrison camp to finish off Clay.

Without a Granger letter, it is at least conceivable that Scott would have
gotten the nomination, and if so he would, for all his weaknesses as a
candidate, almost certainly have defeated Van Buren, given the latter's
unpopularity in 1840. Another thing that could have made Scott the
nominee, even with the Granger letter: have Harrison, who after all was
already 66 years old in 1839, die in that year instead of 1841. Scott then
becomes the Northern Whigs' alternative to Clay. If nominated, he might
have more trouble in the South than Harrison in OTL, but he could still
probably beat Van Buren.

The likely consequences of a Scott victory in 1840 are the same as that of
just about any other Whig than Tyler holding the White House in those
years: the Whig nationalist economic program (tariffs, national bank,
internal improvements) is enacted and not vetoed; the Whigs claim credit
for the economic recovery that starts in 1843; the country divides more
along economic philosophy than regional/slavery lines; the extremely
divisive Texas issue (and therefore the Mexican War) is at least postponed.

https://groups.google.com/d/msg/soc.history.what-if/0rnkWwBHUD8/ShGfRsTHQ8oJ
 

Johnnybravo

Banned
Here's another thing to consider. Remember the fateful boat explosion that Tyler nearly avoided and claimed the lives of the cabinet members and his would have been father-in-law. Well, the alternate president could have been the same place Tyler had been in the event while the Vice-president, with nothing else important to do, stays close to his fiance's dad. Tyler's untimely death would have been a real tragedy before he could become united with his new sweetheart after his old one got taken from him, and could be given a bit more respect in the White House as other Vice Presidents. However, since the president nearly got killed with the vp, then it would spark referendum for presidential succession waaay earlier than it did in our time.
 
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