WI: Willem II of Orange Lives Longer

Vitruvius

Donor
But if William II is in power in the Netherlands during the latter stages of the Franco-Spanish War isn't there a risk that Cromwell would ally with Spain rather than France. If William brings the Netherlands into the war against Spain and due to mutual family connections the Bourbons and the Oranges both support the exiled Stuarts it seems like Cromwell would be more inclined to back Spain and/or Dutch republican/anti-Orangist dissidents.
 
Personaly I believe that if Willem II lives, he will win the powerstruggle with the regents from Amsterdam and Holland that opposed him.In many ways he was actualy winning before he died.
Why do you think that? Willem's proposal on 26 august 1650 for mediation between France and Spain, that heavily favored France, and that had to lead the Republic in a war with Spain, was consequently neutered by the representatives of Holland. It showed Willem's earlier victory was Pyrrhic
No, they don't, but if Willem II wins the powerstruggle, they don't realy have a choice. He would replace the regents that oppose him with regents that support him (a standard tactic of stadholders) and he would have an Amsterdam that (for the moment at least) supports him. Others may disagree with him and voice their opposition, but if Willem controls to ruling class that won't matter that much.Mind you, I don't think most of Holland cares about Antwerp, just Amsterdam. I doubt Leiden or Delft etc cares that much if Holland gets some competition. they might even prefer a lessened influence of Amsterdam in the Estate of Holland, as that would mean an increased influence of them.
His uncle had also replaced all opposing regents. And within a few years the ballance of power had shifted back to the old situation.
The cities in Zeeland did care, they get direct income from blockading Antwerp.
Only 4 Hollandse cities supported Willem II openly in the crisis of 1649/1650 leading to the strike on Amsterdam. Willem II was lucky to get the favorable outcome he got.

In my timeline I am planning for Willem II to limit the power of Holland by introducing new provinces. At first by making Drenthe and East-Frisia a province and after the Dutch conquer Antwerp by making Brabant a province (obviously only the protestant parts of Brabant) and finaly flanders when Ghent, Ostend and Bruges have been recaptured.
Another reason for the existing states and cities to stop their bickering and unite against this idea, that would limit the influence of all. The formal argument used would be that the government of the Republic was already difficult enough, because decisions could be only made in total unity.
 
If William II succeeds in taking a part of the Spanish Netherlands what would be there status?
IMO Holland saw France as a good friend but bad neighbour there are few or none benefits from any partition of Southern Netherlands between republic and France
 
Why do you think that? Willem's proposal on 26 august 1650 for mediation between France and Spain, that heavily favored France, and that had to lead the Republic in a war with Spain, was consequently neutered by the representatives of Holland. It showed Willem's earlier victory was Pyrrhic

His uncle had also replaced all opposing regents. And within a few years the ballance of power had shifted back to the old situation.
The cities in Zeeland did care, they get direct income from blockading Antwerp.
Only 4 Hollandse cities supported Willem II openly in the crisis of 1649/1650 leading to the strike on Amsterdam. Willem II was lucky to get the favorable outcome he got.


Another reason for the existing states and cities to stop their bickering and unite against this idea, that would limit the influence of all. The formal argument used would be that the government of the Republic was already difficult enough, because decisions could be only made in total unity.

So Willem might not have the finances/troops to go another round against the Regents? Still, it's hardly as though Spain was in better straits financially IIRC. Willem also doesn't seem like the type that would let lacking finances/troops stop him. But I do agree that Wim is likely to sue for a peace soon - but he'll want peace on his terms. Whether he gets that, is another matter entirely.

As to replacing the former regents, it usually goes like that with a packed deck - namely you can pack the house with cronies, but sooner or later the cronies are no longer gonna be yes-men or your yes-men are going to start dying off/the opposition is going to get a strong player.

As to the Southern Netherlands - couldn't Wim just directly annex it as personal holdings? That way he'd get a power base, the states would be directly beholden to him rather than a (entirely?) Protestant Staaten-Generaal.

If William II succeeds in taking a part of the Spanish Netherlands what would be there status?
IMO Holland saw France as a good friend but bad neighbour there are few or none benefits from any partition of Southern Netherlands between republic and France

France was seen as a bad neighbour during Louis XIV's constant wars in the Southern Netherlands. I don't say that those won't happen here - but (using OTL as an example), his justification for several wars that he fought in the Southern Netherlands were wars against the larger Spanish Empire, in the name of his wife - for whom he claimed them as inheritance (jus devolutionis) when her dad died or in lieu of an unpaid dowry. If they no longer belong to Spain, but to the Netherlands, then Louis' whole raison de guerre disappears. I don't say this will stop him attacking - he'll find a reason, since as Friedrich the Great said to a minister when looking for a pretext to march into Silesia in 1740 "that's the work of a good charlatan" - but he won't be attacking Spanish territories, and can't use his OTL reasons. Rather, he'd be turning on an erstwhile ally, which is going to look considerably worse for France in the international arena (it's going to make the king look as though he can't be trusted to respect anyone. And the Dutch will go shopping for allies elsewhere as OTL).

As to Cromwell allying with Spain, it's an interesting idea. However, Spain might demand their fellow-believers in Ireland be left alone - and I don't know if Ollie's gonna play along there. Felipe II might have been pragmatic enough to let alone, Olivares too. Felipe IV from all I've read on him (wasn't Haro advising him at this point? or was it personal rule again? I remember he said after the valido was dismissed "I am quite old enough to see things clearly for myself" - and then carried on as before. But I can't remember who was in charge in the early 1650s) doesn't strike me as the pragmatic sort - unless it comes to finding a dress that's easier for him to get into/a mistress out of.
 
I realy admire the idea of greater Republic but IMO the real momentum has gone after Peace of Westfalia they had to crush the Spaniards in the 30s or 40s and divide the Southern Netherlands then,or maybe more gains after Spanish War of Succession
 
I realy admire the idea of greater Republic but IMO the real momentum has gone after Peace of Westfalia they had to crush the Spaniards in the 30s or 40s and divide the Southern Netherlands then,or maybe more gains after Spanish War of Succession

Presumably. However that doesn't mean that France can't use an alliance with the Dutch as a cat's paw to threaten Spain into making an earlier peace?

Wars aside, might the Dutch Republic be of a different appearance following Willem II's final defeat of Amsterdam in 1650? Maybe more along the lines of an elected monarchy (a la Denmark until the reign of Frederik III) than a crowned republic (a la Venice or Genoa)? How might he consolidate his reign once Amsterdam is defeated? Are there sitll going to be rebellions against his reign? Or would most people just figure "rather the devil you know"?
 

Vitruvius

Donor
There would still be one more issue that would have to be addressed before the United Provinces transform to any kind of monarchy, namely that William II wasn't the stadholder of all of the provinces. His cousin, William Frederick of Nassau Dietz would still be stadholder of Friesland, Groningen and Drenthe. I don't think his cousin would oppose him or even be a rival in any way that would threaten William but it's hard to consolidate power as stadholder into a quasi-Kingship when there's another stadholder out there.
 
There would still be one more issue that would have to be addressed before the United Provinces transform to any kind of monarchy, namely that William II wasn't the stadholder of all of the provinces. His cousin, William Frederick of Nassau Dietz would still be stadholder of Friesland, Groningen and Drenthe. I don't think his cousin would oppose him or even be a rival in any way that would threaten William but it's hard to consolidate power as stadholder into a quasi-Kingship when there's another stadholder out there.

How about his Diez cousin dies in 1650 instead of Wim? Would that work? Not only does it get rid of a potential rival, but it frees up Albertine to marry elsewhere.
 
So, Willem Frederik of Nassau-Diez dies in 1650, while Willem II survives. Henriëtte Katharina is presumably betrothed to Charles II when that gentleman starts showing interest in her, and Albertine can marry Henriëtte's OTL husband. Or, alternatively, Albertine can wed into the Palatinate instead of her youngest sister? Maybe a marriage to Karl I of the Palatinate for her? I'd be interested to see how such a marriage would play out - I don't think Albertine (who was basically defending a city from attack, even when she was pregnant IIRC) is going to be close to the sort of pushover that Charlotte of Hesse-Kassel.
 
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