WI Wilhelm II send HSF to help Russians against Japan?

Cook

Banned
Abc, you would do better to stay on focus with the subject of you thread, otherwise people will begin to think you are another member with either a scatterbrain or pet peeve.

The subject isn’t in my opinion as outrageous as some members think, but it needs tinkering and assessing of the motivations of various factions of the time.

The Morocco Crisis of the same year indicates that stupid acts, contrary to the best interests of their nation, were not out of the question to various leaders at the time. But they generally occurred without council and on the spur of the moment, and given time were smoothed over by the diplomatic corps of the various great powers.

The motivation of the Kaiser needs to be considered; even he did not want a war of aggression, what he wanted was national security for the Reich. Unfortunately because of his youth and ego he spurned the wise council of Bismarck and never found anyone able to give him equally sound advice, not that he probably would have listened.

So what you need to look for, if you want this to lead to an earlier WW1, is something that causes the train crash to happen nine years earlier.
 
The subject isn’t in my opinion as outrageous as some members think...



The suggestion that a Germany could be allied with or decide to help a Russia in a war against a Japan in 1905 isn't outrageous at all. The suggestion, however, that the OTL's Germany would decide to help the OTL's Russia against the OTL's Japan in the OTL's Russo-Japanese War on the basis of nothing more than Wilhelm's whims is wholly ignorant of the parties involved and the international situation.

Those posting here were taking exception to the former and not the latter.

... but it needs tinkering and assessing of the motivations of various factions of the time.

Exactly, and I wrote that abc123 would need a "deeper" or more "wrenching" POD than Wilhelm having a brain storm one morning over his soft boiled egg and orange juice.

The kind of POD or PODs which both you and I have suggested would be needed have not been presented by the OP and no attempt has been made to either present them or even comprehend why they'd be necessary.
 

abc123

Banned
Abc, you would do better to stay on focus with the subject of you thread, otherwise people will begin to think you are another member with either a scatterbrain or pet peeve.

The subject isn’t in my opinion as outrageous as some members think, but it needs tinkering and assessing of the motivations of various factions of the time.

The Morocco Crisis of the same year indicates that stupid acts, contrary to the best interests of their nation, were not out of the question to various leaders at the time. But they generally occurred without council and on the spur of the moment, and given time were smoothed over by the diplomatic corps of the various great powers.

The motivation of the Kaiser needs to be considered; even he did not want a war of aggression, what he wanted was national security for the Reich. Unfortunately because of his youth and ego he spurned the wise council of Bismarck and never found anyone able to give him equally sound advice, not that he probably would have listened.

So what you need to look for, if you want this to lead to an earlier WW1, is something that causes the train crash to happen nine years earlier.


Continuation of Dreikaiserbund/Reinsurance Treaty? Somehow?
Yes, I know that for that you need a much smarter Wilhelm II, but that show's that agreement between Germany, A-H and Russia wasn't impossible.
 
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like i said before Willheilm was looking foreward to ZRussia getting its ass kicked. listen most of te mistakes nicky made early on were due to his big cousin. Willheilm took advantage of nicky and tried really hard to screw over russia. Germany knew a war was going to happen anyway and it would be best for germany if Russia was in a precarious position. that is the truth, their is no way under willheilms reign you cannot have germany allied with Russia.
however what you \ is have some other successor become emperor, then have him establish diplo-ties with Russia instead of Ah that will allow a Russo-German alliance. think of the twin eagles and the lion tl... very excellent work..
 

abc123

Banned
like i said before Willheilm was looking foreward to ZRussia getting its ass kicked. listen most of te mistakes nicky made early on were due to his big cousin. Willheilm took advantage of nicky and tried really hard to screw over russia. Germany knew a war was going to happen anyway and it would be best for germany if Russia was in a precarious position. that is the truth, their is no way under willheilms reign you cannot have germany allied with Russia.
however what you \ is have some other successor become emperor, then have him establish diplo-ties with Russia instead of Ah that will allow a Russo-German alliance. think of the twin eagles and the lion tl... very excellent work..


Well, I know that all of you think that alliance between A-H, Germany and Russia is impossible because of Balkans.
But look at annexion crisis in 1908.
A-H and Russia have maid a deal where Russia wouldn't oppose annexation of B-H, and A-H will support new deal about Straits for russian shipping.
So, why such agreement isn't possible, just on grander scale?
 

Cook

Banned
Continuation of Dreikaiserbund/Reinsurance Treaty? Somehow?
Yes, I know that for that you need a much smarter Wilhelm II, but that show's that agreement between Germany, A-H and Russia wasn't impossible.

Yes I think so, which pushes us back to 1890 at the latest.
 
Well, I know that all of you think that alliance between A-H, Germany and Russia is impossible because of Balkans.
But look at annexion crisis in 1908.
A-H and Russia have maid a deal where Russia wouldn't oppose annexation of B-H, and A-H will support new deal about Straits for russian shipping.
So, why such agreement isn't possible, just on grander scale?

Because of a simple reason, AH Is basically like an evil overlord in the balkans
while Russiais the protector of Slavs.

2: Both have huge interests in Balkans
3: Both cannot back down when concerning Balkans
4: Russi and AH always had bad blood, since Nappy Russians hate AH because pop view is that AH were bastards who stabbed Russia in the back and were not to be trusted.
5: AH could not leave Balkans or it would lose face and Likewise Russia cannot abandon Balkans due to it being protector of Slavs.


So IMO outright allaince is Implausable.... Srry. there are many more reasons but I just explained a few such reasons:)
 

abc123

Banned
Because of a simple reason, AH Is basically like an evil overlord in the balkans
while Russiais the protector of Slavs.

2: Both have huge interests in Balkans
3: Both cannot back down when concerning Balkans
4: Russi and AH always had bad blood, since Nappy Russians hate AH because pop view is that AH were bastards who stabbed Russia in the back and were not to be trusted.
5: AH could not leave Balkans or it would lose face and Likewise Russia cannot abandon Balkans due to it being protector of Slavs.


So IMO outright allaince is Implausable.... Srry. there are many more reasons but I just explained a few such reasons:)

And in the same time, alliance between A-H and Russia existed. First as a part of Holy Alliance ( in 1848 Russia saved Habsburg Monarchy ) and even after 1854, A-H backstabbing/abandoning of Russia as a Dreikaiserbund.

And can you tell me what are that "huge" interests of A-H in Balkans in beginning of 20th Century?
 

Cook

Banned
Germany knew a war was going to happen anyway and it would be best for germany if Russia was in a precarious position.

This is a cliché and frankly not true. All the great power nations in the first decades of the 20th century were seeking to guarantee their security, not start wars against the other powers and there was no expectation that a general European war was inevitable.
’The First World War’ by John Keegan. said:
‘Europe in the summer of 1914 enjoyed a peaceful productivity so dependent on international exchange and co-operation that a belief in the impossibility of general war seemed the most conventional of wisdoms. In 1910 an analysis of prevailing economic interdependence, The Great Illusion, had become a best seller; its author Norman Angell had demonstrated, to the satisfaction of almost all informed opinion, that the disruption of international credit inevitably to be caused by war would either deter its outbreak or bring it speedily to an end.’

The offspring of Queen Victoria were married into most of the Protestant royal families of the continent…Symbolic relationships ramified those of birth. The Kaiser was Colonel of the British 1st Dragoons and an Admiral in the Royal Navy; his cousin, George V, was a Colonel of the Prussian 1st Guard Dragoons. The Austrian Emperor was a Colonel of the British 1st Dragoon Guards; while among foreign colonels of Austrian regiments were the Kings of Sweden, Belgium, Italy, Spain, Bavaria, Wuttemburg, Saxony and Montenegro and the Tsar of Russia.

Europe’s diplomats were, before 1914, the continent’s one truly international class, knowing each other as social intimates and speaking French as a common language. Though dedicated to the national interests, they shared a belief that their role was to avoid war.

Wilhelm II’s actions early in his reign were due to the man’s tactlessness and trying to overcome an inferiority complex. His actions later in his reign were more cautious and his actions in June and July 1914 during the diplomatic crisis make it clear he was as desperate to avoid a general European war as anybody.
 
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