WI - White Russian Manchuria?

What if the Japanese established a White Russian state in Manchuria during the Russian Civil War and/or as apart of some kind of Far Eastern buffer state formed from territories annexed from Eastern Siberia?

Let's say that Tokyo sees that the White Russians are going to lose against the Bolsheviks in the Russian Civil War, occupying Russian Manchuria with some of the men that were sent to intervene in Siberia OTL and convincing the White Russian leadership and forces in the Far East to move to Manchuria. The Reds win the RCW similarly to OTL as the White Russians, backed by Japan and maybe the West, consolidate in White Russian Manchuria. In the post-ww1 years, White Russian Manchuria becomes a de-facto protectorate of Japan who supplies the White Russians with financial and material support as a buffer to the newly-established Soviet Union and expansion of communism in eastern Asia.

What happens next?
 
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I might be misunderstanding this but it sounds like a bad idea. Is Japan merging the Russian Far East with Manchuria, essentially undoing the treaties of 1850-1860? Would any Russian accept Japan taking Outer Manchuria and ceding it to their satellite state? It is basically just an annexation by another method.

Or do you mean just a "Far Eastern Republic" like we saw in OTL? Cause if the Soviets win I do not see things going any differently. You have not given enough detail why it should go differently.
 
I might be misunderstanding this but it sounds like a bad idea. Is Japan merging the Russian Far East with Manchuria, essentially undoing the treaties of 1850-1860? Would any Russian accept Japan taking Outer Manchuria and ceding it to their satellite state? It is basically just an annexation by another method.

Or do you mean just a "Far Eastern Republic" like we saw in OTL? Cause if the Soviets win I do not see things going any differently. You have not given enough detail why it should go differently.
Perhaps I didn't explain it too clearly - I was wondering what a de-facto Japanese Manchukuo-esque White Russian state in Outer Manchuria would look like. When I'm referring to the Far East and what ATL Japan annexed, I meant the combined territories/regions of Khabarovsk Krai and Primorksy Krai.

Something similar to the OTL FER would be desirable.
 
Than titling the thread "A Surviving Far East Republic" would have got you point across better since Manchukuo has basically always been used to refer to Chinese Manchuria in English. The Russian East has always been thought of as a separate thing.
 
If a state east of the Amur river gains independence with Japanese support, it has very strong geopolitical prospects long-term. The Japanese would appreciate a naval base in Vladivostok for their trouble, but White Russia could also try to balance out Japanese and American influence quite successfully. The United States basically started in similar circumstances as a French client state that emerged from a civil war in the British empire.

If WW2 happens on schedule, the US could tie lend-lease aid for the Soviets to recognition/nonagression of White Russia. This would also complicate the geopolitical stakes of the Pacific Theater, the US would probably devote more resources to defeating the Japanese navy or prioritize US troops fighting on the Asian mainland. The Soviet Pacific fleet would have significantly less room to maneuver during the Cold War, and a White FER could change the ATL location and evolution of the gulag system.

Assuming the White Russian state survives as a faithful Japanese client state, the Japanese might have to change the tone of their "Asia for the Asians" rhetoric. Fascist propaganda has never involved much honesty or intellectual consistency, but the blatant exception of a non-Asian ally would complicate their narrative about a racial struggle against European colonialism.
 
If a state east of the Amur river gains independence with Japanese support, it has very strong geopolitical prospects long-term. The Japanese would appreciate a naval base in Vladivostok for their trouble, but White Russia could also try to balance out Japanese and American influence quite successfully. The United States basically started in similar circumstances as a French client state that emerged from a civil war in the British empire.

If WW2 happens on schedule, the US could tie lend-lease aid for the Soviets to recognition/nonagression of White Russia. This would also complicate the geopolitical stakes of the Pacific Theater, the US would probably devote more resources to defeating the Japanese navy or prioritize US troops fighting on the Asian mainland. The Soviet Pacific fleet would have significantly less room to maneuver during the Cold War, and a White FER could change the ATL location and evolution of the gulag system.

Assuming the White Russian state survives as a faithful Japanese client state, the Japanese might have to change the tone of their "Asia for the Asians" rhetoric. Fascist propaganda has never involved much honesty or intellectual consistency, but the blatant exception of a non-Asian ally would complicate their narrative about a racial struggle against European colonialism.
eh.. so who does this white Russia side with.. if they have given the Japanese a base in Vladivostok that really complicates things.

If China goes Red, the Soviets are red and the last vestige of the Russian Empire is wedged between? that isn't going to help matters.

also the soviets might not care about recognition after. you will need a sizable western influence there. and honestly, a us/Japanese allied white Russia might deter us/Japanese mid term, but then again.. the Japanese could say what ever and also invade them
 
also the soviets might not care about recognition after. you will need a sizable western influence there. and honestly, a us/Japanese allied white Russia might deter us/Japanese mid term, but then again.. the Japanese could say what ever and also invade them
Once the War in Europe is over the Whites in the Far East are finished. The Red Army of 1945 would roll right over them on their way to Manchuria, Korea and they hope Japan itself. Stalin will not allow the White State to survive and as Japan is their patron the Whites have no allies able or willing to stand up to him.
 
Once the War in Europe is over the Whites in the Far East are finished. The Red Army of 1945 would roll right over them on their way to Manchuria, Korea and they hope Japan itself. Stalin will not allow the White State to survive and as Japan is their patron the Whites have no allies able or willing to stand up to him.
that was my issue, if the soviets win.. white Russia is doomed. only way I could see anything working would be if it was in fact a US or British client state. ( that said and depending on the region we are fully talking; is there enough population available to do anything with. loosing battle is loosing battle if all you have is an army of mosquitos
 
that was my issue, if the soviets win.. white Russia is doomed. only way I could see anything working would be if it was in fact a US or British client state. ( that said and depending on the region we are fully talking; is there enough population available to do anything with. loosing battle is loosing battle if all you have is an army of mosquitos
It's possible with firm American support, the USSR of 1945 was in no position to fight the US over the far east. However, the diplomatic skill necessary for the far east state would make Finnish-soviet relations look like amateur hour.
 
Once the War in Europe is over the Whites in the Far East are finished. The Red Army of 1945 would roll right over them on their way to Manchuria, Korea and they hope Japan itself. Stalin will not allow the White State to survive and as Japan is their patron the Whites have no allies able or willing to stand up to him.
If the US has a more anti-communist leadership that can see the cold war over the horizon, they could pull the necessary strings to maintain an American foothold. OTL, FDR was much more rosy about the prospects for cooperation with Stalin than Churchill, and expected US troops in Europe to be temporary. In the same way that Taiwan was the US navy's unsinkable aircraft carrier, a US with sufficient foresight and geopolitical dexterity could turn the far east state into America's nuclear missile launchpad.
 
You probably need some sort of clash between US and Soviet forces in Central Europe to get that in time. Not enough to spark a full scale war but more than enough to sour relations, perhaps an incident in Czechoslovakia or along the Elbe with one or other side trying to push past the demarcation line.
 
You probably need some sort of clash between US and Soviet forces in Central Europe to get that in time. Not enough to spark a full scale war but more than enough to sour relations, perhaps an incident in Czechoslovakia or along the Elbe with one or other side trying to push past the demarcation line.
An easy POD could be Patton avoid his OTL death if the car accident is butterflied away. He's anti-communist, charismatic, and self-important enough (he considered himself the reincarnation of a Roman military leader) to attempt his own little operation unthinkable by disobeying the Yalta occupation zones to push farther into Czechia or eastern Germany. If he liberates Prague, Vienna, or gets too close to/involved with the Battle of Berlin he could cause a diplomatic incident between Roosevelt and Stalin.
 
you need japan to fall before the soviets reach berlin

so if western forces can be on the ground liberating this white Russia.. ( Belarus is going to be pissed that everyone takes it damn name ) :)
 
I was thinking that if White Russian Manchuria lasts until ww2, it remains neutral but has a pro-Axis foreign policy in order to survive. It could join in 1943-44 when it seems Japan is losing, donating troops to China and/or the Pacific. It will most likely request material support from the western allies as well as protection from any potential Soviet invasion.

How plausible is this?
 
The White Russian State would be a Japanese puppet. They may be able to stay nominally neutral but would not risk entering the war against Japan. The Japanese would not permit them to become strong enough to be any sort of threat and would ensure they were the only source of arms for the whites.
 

BigBlueBox

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It's possible with firm American support, the USSR of 1945 was in no position to fight the US over the far east. However, the diplomatic skill necessary for the far east state would make Finnish-soviet relations look like amateur hour.
And the USA of 1945 isn’t going to fight the USSR over the Far East. They didn’t do anything about the occupation of the Baltic states or Stalin breaking his promise of elections in Eastern Europe. FDR wanted the Soviets to attack Manchukuo, and if they wanted Outer Manchuria too than they would have let the Soviets have it.
 
If this White Russian state joins the Allies in WW2, then it will drastically change the politics of the Far East. It gives the US a base to stage an invasion of Manchuria, preventing a Russian invasion. This will place Manchuria in the hands of pro-USA capitalists. It will also prevent the creation of North Korea. A pro-USA Manchuria might give Chiang the edge he needs to defeat Mao, since it give the USA a vested interest in giving him more aid and also grant Chiang the use of Manchurian heavy industry. If Mao is still victorious, Manchuria may remain an independent state. This White Russian state is also located on the Soviet's only major Pacific port. This is going to make the cold war in Asia far easier. Without Soviet aid, an American victory in Vietnam would definitely be possible, even with China still being communist. If they aren't, an American victory is assured.
 
If this White Russian state joins the Allies in WW2, then it will drastically change the politics of the Far East. It gives the US a base to stage an invasion of Manchuria, preventing a Russian invasion. This will place Manchuria in the hands of pro-USA capitalists. It will also prevent the creation of North Korea. A pro-USA Manchuria might give Chiang the edge he needs to defeat Mao, since it give the USA a vested interest in giving him more aid and also grant Chiang the use of Manchurian heavy industry. If Mao is still victorious, Manchuria may remain an independent state. This White Russian state is also located on the Soviet's only major Pacific port. This is going to make the cold war in Asia far easier. Without Soviet aid, an American victory in Vietnam would definitely be possible, even with China still being communist. If they aren't, an American victory is assured.
This is what I was envisioning with White Russian Manchuria in the Southeast Asian Theatre but I'm not sure if WRM would be as industrialized as OTL Manchuria/Manchukuo.
 
The White Russian State would be a Japanese puppet. They may be able to stay nominally neutral but would not risk entering the war against Japan. The Japanese would not permit them to become strong enough to be any sort of threat and would ensure they were the only source of arms for the whites.
Perhaps a few White Russian Volunteer Regiments are formed and attached to the Japanese forces serving in the Pacific?
 
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