>Discounting the more inactive part of the fronts south of Metz,
Why?
>the Western Front at the time of the August counterattack was about 250 miles.
more 350
> I think about 90-95% of the German 200 (or so) divisions were deployed here
Plainly wrong. They had 197 on all fronts (including occupation forces in the East) + Italy + Greece + Alsace
Among them many were depleted (24) or unfit (16) for combat according the the own German command (and many divisions were worse than than, check Michael Neiberg: The Military Atlas of WWI)
You have the OOB here:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_Army_order_of_battle,_Western_Front_(1918)
You can check division per division here:
http://www.vlib.us/wwi/resources/germanarmywwi.pdf A huge number of them is seriuosly depleted or unfit for combat.
The average front line per division was MUCH larger as a consequence.
Your numbers just don't fit
Namur, Brussels, and Liege are key rail junctions and built-up areas. In the historical 100 days the German army was in full retreat so major city fighting was avoided. But if there is no Spring Offensive, each of these cities is a set-piece battle with the rail junctions being the prize. (Not sure what the logistic requirement of the BEF was, but assuming 3.5 million men and horses at 20lbs per man and horse per day, that's about 35,000 tons supply per day, meaning that an advance into Germany without the major rail lines would be impossible)
Check your maps again and you will discover something specific about Belgium: they have many rail lines that avoid those cities. Second thing: the idea is ti surround the city and to make them surrender. why attacking the city itself? and BTW your link is dead.
I don't think an offensive south of Metz is ending the war even in 1919, The Allies have to break through north of Metz
There is a place called Alsace anf the Belfort gap... and why north?
, or cross Bohemia into Germany after a march up the Danube. They have to advance through the line Aachen-Metz and cross the Rhine into the Ruhr.
I would use the flat Belgium plain (the same that germans selected to use in WW1 and WW2)