WI: Western Allies on the Oder-Neisse line

[Pellegrino]

Let’s say that somehow the Western Allies are considerably more successful after D-Day and the Soviets are somewhat less successful, with the end result being that the end of the war sees the Western Allies on the west bank of the Oder and Neisse Rivers while the Soviets end up on the east bank. Basically: what if the modern border of Germany and Poland ended up being the line of control at the end of WW2 with the Americans and British controlling everything to the west while the Soviets controlled everything to the east. Maybe we also have parts of Czechoslovakia end up in Allied hands as well. Not so concerned how we get there, perhaps Market Garden is a success. Perhaps Kursk is a Soviet defeat. But let’s just say that at the end of the war the Western Allies control a large part of Germany that was allotted to fall under Soviet control under the Yalta agreement. Now I realize that at the end of Yalta the Soviets were already touching the Oder River in a few places, but once again, let’s say that in this scenario they are a bit further back and the Americans are a bit closer to Berlin.

My question is this: do the Western Allies renege on the agreement? Do they decide that they will not support the Soviet domination of eastern Germany and draw a line in the sand if you will? Does this trigger WW3 in 1946-1950? The Americans and British handed some land over to the Soviet zone after the fall of Berlin, but it was pretty clear that the Soviets were in control in Eastern Europe at this point in OTL. Does a stronger Western Allied position make it distasteful enough for the Americans to dig in their heels and refuse to allow the Soviets to control that much territory?

Additional questions: Does Yalta even happen like OTL? If the Americans and British are in a somewhat better position do you think we end up with the “Roosevelt Plan” or the “Churchill Plan?” And if so do the Soviets renege on the deal? (They would have to turn over a large amount of territory to the “Prussian” state if they went with either plan?) Could East Prussia and the Polish annexed lands end up becoming the new East Germany in this scenario or would the Soviets just abandoned plans for a Communist German nation (or plan to invade the united German nation under NATO's control?)

Final question: What if the Americans and British controlled what is now regarded as the Czech Republic and they also refused to turn this over as per Yalta? Do we see a West Czechoslovakia and East Czechoslovakia or do we see both sides accept a two state solution where a NATO Czech Republic and a Warsaw Pact Slovakia?

 

[Shapur2]

If I may offer a possible scenario:

Western Front: Ike enforces a brief pause in September. Instead of launching Market Garden, Montgomery and 21st Army Grip open the approaches to Antwerp, while 12th and 6th Army Groups continue on more or less as IOTL, though perhaps sans the meat grinder in the hurtgenwald. Antwerp opens in say mid to late October, avoiding the supply crisis. The allies can essentially carry out their operations of 1945 in late 1944. The Battle of the Bulge is avoided.

Meanwhile, in the east, the pause in the west allows the Germans to reinforce the eastern front. Army group North is extracted almost immediately after being trapped in courland. 16th and 18th armies can now defend east Prussia allowing for more forces to be made available for Hungary and southern Poland.

By the time the soviets can launch their Oder -Vistula offensive, the allies have already crossed the Rhine. The italian front is collapsing, and by spring 1945, Patton has reached Prague. Addy flees Berlin, a 'den of defeatists', for Austria, but his plane is shot down. Vienna falls to Patch's 7th Army, de Tassigny and Truscott link up at Brenner Pass, and McCreery shakes hands with the Partisans in Ljubljana.

Again, just a scenario.

 

[ObssesedNuker]

In terms of domestic politics during early-1945, this sums up the Anglo-American public's perception of the Soviets quite nicely:

This affection towards the USSR had been bought by both the Red Army's military triumphs and a concerted PR campaign by the Western Allies over the past four years. It took two-years of Soviet provocations (real and imagined) combined with another concerted public relations campaign to reverse it. As democratic states, the UK and US are beholden to the attitudes of their public and will have to act accordingly.

Simply put: at the minimum, the Soviets are gonna get an occupation zone that includes Berlin and is going to see it's eastern conquests legitimized long enough to install communist puppet governments within them. Although Czechoslovakia may get split 40 years early

 

[Pellegrino]

In terms of domestic politics during early-1945, this sums up the Anglo-American public's perception of the Soviets quite nicely:

This affection towards the USSR had been bought by both the Red Army's military triumphs and a concerted PR campaign by the Western Allies over the past four years. It took two-years of Soviet provocations (real and imagined) combined with another concerted public relations campaign to reverse it. As democratic states, the UK and US are beholden to the attitudes of their public and will have to act accordingly.

Simply put: at the minimum, the Soviets are gonna get an occupation zone that includes Berlin and is going to see it's eastern conquests legitimized long enough to install communist puppet governments within them. Although Czechoslovakia may get split 40 years early

Maybe the West gives the Soviets an "East Berlin" surrounded by the rest of West Germany then?

And if the Western Allies have a stronger position at the end of the war does that force Stalin to back down and turn over East Germany (like he did with Eastern Austria) or does he refuse and create an East German state east of the Oder River?

As I think it is clear that even in this scenario East Prussia is lost, I could see the Soviets and the Poles being molified with East Prussia and then a pupper state in Pomerania, although I don't see Stalin being OK with a united Germany in the 1940s or 1950s.

 

[Tallil2long]

Let’s say that somehow the Western Allies are considerably more successful after D-Day and the Soviets are somewhat less successful, with the end result being that the end of the war sees the Western Allies on the west bank of the Oder and Neisse Rivers while the Soviets end up on the east bank. Basically: what if the modern border of Germany and Poland ended up being the line of control at the end of WW2 with the Americans and British controlling everything to the west while the Soviets controlled everything to the east. Maybe we also have parts of Czechoslovakia end up in Allied hands as well. Not so concerned how we get there, perhaps Market Garden is a success. Perhaps Kursk is a Soviet defeat. But let’s just say that at the end of the war the Western Allies control a large part of Germany that was allotted to fall under Soviet control under the Yalta agreement. Now I realize that at the end of Yalta the Soviets were already touching the Oder River in a few places, but once again, let’s say that in this scenario they are a bit further back and the Americans are a bit closer to Berlin.

My question is this: do the Western Allies renege on the agreement? Do they decide that they will not support the Soviet domination of eastern Germany and draw a line in the sand if you will? Does this trigger WW3 in 1946-1950? The Americans and British handed some land over to the Soviet zone after the fall of Berlin, but it was pretty clear that the Soviets were in control in Eastern Europe at this point in OTL. Does a stronger Western Allied position make it distasteful enough for the Americans to dig in their heels and refuse to allow the Soviets to control that much territory?

Additional questions: Does Yalta even happen like OTL? If the Americans and British are in a somewhat better position do you think we end up with the “Roosevelt Plan” or the “Churchill Plan?” And if so do the Soviets renege on the deal? (They would have to turn over a large amount of territory to the “Prussian” state if they went with either plan?) Could East Prussia and the Polish annexed lands end up becoming the new East Germany in this scenario or would the Soviets just abandoned plans for a Communist German nation (or plan to invade the united German nation under NATO's control?)

Final question: What if the Americans and British controlled what is now regarded as the Czech Republic and they also refused to turn this over as per Yalta? Do we see a West Czechoslovakia and East Czechoslovakia or do we see both sides accept a two state solution where a NATO Czech Republic and a Warsaw Pact Slovakia?

I honestly think the W Allies withdraw and give the Sovs everything they were promised.

First, they have no legitimate basis to renege. The Soviets hadn't breached the agreement.

Second, a sudden volte face would not go easily with the public, now that we'd spent four years lying to them about the nature of Uncle Joe and his gang.

Third, nobody really wanted to provoke the Soviets so quickly after then end of a brutally costly war, when the Sovs still had their armies fully mobilized and everyone thought large numbers of troops would have to be transferred to the Pacific.

Fourth, i've gotten the impression that there were influential folks in the US who had been in love with Communism/Socialism since at least the '30's, and they wouldn't think of such a thing.

 

[Blackfox5]

In 1945 to 1946, the overriding fear was not that the US and USSR would get into a superpower struggle, but what to do with Germany. Most of the international politics was based on the idea that left alone, Germany would rise to menace the world for a third time. It wasn't until 1947 that people began realizing the actual threat came from the Soviet Union instead. That slowly built up until the Czech coup after which it became paramount.


So the Western Allies along the Oder means nothing. They will evacuate whatever the Soviet zone will be.

The only possible change that may occur in this scenario is whether the Red Army still occupies all of the countries it did at the end of the war. If any of them aren't occupied, then they escape being made a Communist satellite. If they are still occupied, it still happens.

Additional questions: Does Yalta even happen like OTL? If the Americans and British are in a somewhat better position do you think we end up with the “Roosevelt Plan” or the “Churchill Plan?” And if so do the Soviets renege on the deal? (They would have to turn over a large amount of territory to the “Prussian” state if they went with either plan?) Could East Prussia and the Polish annexed lands end up becoming the new East Germany in this scenario or would the Soviets just abandoned plans for a Communist German nation (or plan to invade the united German nation under NATO's control?)

People misunderstand what happened at Yalta. FDR did not give anything to Stalin the Red Army had not already (or would) take. It obliged Stalin to hold fair and free elections in the states he occupied (he never did).

When people talk about "Western Betrayal" they mean that the US and British did not fight a war with the Soviet Union to ensure a free Eastern Europe after the war, not that they actually turned over countries that weren't already going to be occupied by the Red Army to them.

Outside of Germany, the final disposition of forces when the war ends will determine the postwar spheres of influence. If Western forces are the ones who occupy Czechoslovakia or Hungary when the war ends, the Red Army won't move in. Yalta will simply codify the facts on the ground, and Stalin will still break his promises to the West on holding fair and free elections.

Final question: What if the Americans and British controlled what is now regarded as the Czech Republic and they also refused to turn this over as per Yalta? Do we see a West Czechoslovakia and East Czechoslovakia or do we see both sides accept a two state solution where a NATO Czech Republic and a Warsaw Pact Slovakia?

Yalta never required the Americans and British to "turn over" Czechoslovakia. In fact, the Red Army LEFT Czechoslovakia by end of 1945. The Benes government took over and ruled the country without the Red Army being able to interfere in domestic politics unlike the rest of eastern Europe. Czechoslovakia could have easily stayed democratic if not for several critical mistakes by Benes.

First, he considered Germany to be the greatest threat to Czechoslovakia. Because the Western powers were not located next door, he considered Soviet security guarantees as better, and therefore adopted a more pro-Soviet line such as when he dropped involvement in the Marshall Plan.

Second, when non-Communist coalition partners dropped out in protest of the actions of Communists in the government coalition, he didn't call for immediate elections and allowed the Communists to take control of the government which ultimately lead to the Prague coup in 1948.

Had Benes acted decisively against the Communists in 1947/1948 and asked for Western help, the country likely would never have gone Communist. Despite favorable election results in 1946 election, their actions had greatly destroyed their popularity and would have been heavily defeated in a new one.

 

[Pellegrino]

In 1945 to 1946, the overriding fear was not that the US and USSR would get into a superpower struggle, but what to do with Germany. Most of the international politics was based on the idea that left alone, Germany would rise to menace the world for a third time. It wasn't until 1947 that people began realizing the actual threat came from the Soviet Union instead. That slowly built up until the Czech coup after which it became paramount.


So the Western Allies along the Oder means nothing. They will evacuate whatever the Soviet zone will be.

The only possible change that may occur in this scenario is whether the Red Army still occupies all of the countries it did at the end of the war. If any of them aren't occupied, then they escape being made a Communist satellite. If they are still occupied, it still happens.

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People misunderstand what happened at Yalta. FDR did not give anything to Stalin the Red Army had not already (or would) take. It obliged Stalin to hold fair and free elections in the states he occupied (he never did).

When people talk about "Western Betrayal" they mean that the US and British did not fight a war with the Soviet Union to ensure a free Eastern Europe after the war, not that they actually turned over countries that weren't already going to be occupied by the Red Army to them.

Outside of Germany, the final disposition of forces when the war ends will determine the postwar spheres of influence. If Western forces are the ones who occupy Czechoslovakia or Hungary when the war ends, the Red Army won't move in. Yalta will simply codify the facts on the ground, and Stalin will still break his promises to the West on holding fair and free elections.



Yalta never required the Americans and British to "turn over" Czechoslovakia. In fact, the Red Army LEFT Czechoslovakia by end of 1945. The Benes government took over and ruled the country without the Red Army being able to interfere in domestic politics unlike the rest of eastern Europe. Czechoslovakia could have easily stayed democratic if not for several critical mistakes by Benes.

First, he considered Germany to be the greatest threat to Czechoslovakia. Because the Western powers were not located next door, he considered Soviet security guarantees as better, and therefore adopted a more pro-Soviet line such as when he dropped involvement in the Marshall Plan.

Second, when non-Communist coalition partners dropped out in protest of the actions of Communists in the government coalition, he didn't call for immediate elections and allowed the Communists to take control of the government which ultimately lead to the Prague coup in 1948.

Had Benes acted decisively against the Communists in 1947/1948 and asked for Western help, the country likely would never have gone Communist. Despite favorable election results in 1946 election, their actions had greatly destroyed their popularity and would have been heavily defeated in a new one.

Thanks! Great input. Let me ask this follow up on Czechoslovakia.

If the W-Alleis were in Prauge in 1946 or so, how does that influence Benes in regards to the "German threat" and does he go with the Marshall Plan?

 

[Zaius]

And if the Western Allies have a stronger position at the end of the war does that force Stalin to back down and turn over East Germany (like he did with Eastern Austria) or does he refuse and create an East German state east of the Oder River?

I don't think an east Germany east of the Oder would happen. It is my understanding that the OTL east Germany was almost an afterthought. When negotiating with the Anglo/Americans Stalin expected that Poland's western border would be the limit of the area he would control, and therefore wanted to push it as far as possible. This would be even more true if the Red Army were doing slightly worse.

 

[MattII]

I wonder, there were never any agreements drawn up about Poland were there? I could potential see Poland split into North and South sections, with the Allies trading off those areas of Germany they'd agreed on in exchange for a 'western' zone in Poland.

 

[DTF955Baseballfan]

Agreed, great input on Czechoslovakia - thanks. I wonder, would sucha situation impact Hungary in 1956? Without as much border for Warsaw Pack countries to come from, might they be able to fight them off a bit more and force more concessions, maybe a Finlandization of sorts? Also, much more room for refugees to flee to when the Soviets do invade.

 

[Blackfox5]

If the W-Alleis were in Prauge in 1946 or so, how does that influence Benes in regards to the "German threat" and does he go with the Marshall Plan?

No American or British troops are likely to stay in Czechoslovakia for long for the exact same reasons the Red Army left. Czechoslovakia's government-in-exile is a co-belligerent of the Allies, and would not be occupied as Axis member nations were.

The big difference is that during the temporary Red Army occupation, the Soviets armed local Communists and set them up as the local government, particular in the police sector. That gave Moscow a lot of indirect influence which they used to suppress local anti-Communists or lead organized protests and strikes which they used in late 1947 and 1948. The Communists won't have that influence in any areas liberated by the Americans.

So it all depends on how much land is liberated by the American army, and how much land is liberated by the Red Army.

The Communists are still likely to do well in the 1946 elections and serve in a coalition government. However, if the Red Army never moved into Prague (or perhaps even all of Bohemia), then they will have much less ability to threaten the government with instability if Benes does not support the Communists.

If the Red Army did occupt Slovakia, but not the Czech portion of the country, it is possible Stalin might try to split the country. However, that is very risky since he won't know the reaction of the Western powers. More likely, Stalin will try to achieve a Czechoslovakian neutrality like Finland or Austria had.

Here's a quick primer of the actual crisis: http://www.private-prague-guide.com/article/the-communist-coup-in-czechoslovakia/

 

[Blackfox5]

I wonder, there were never any agreements drawn up about Poland were there? I could potential see Poland split into North and South sections, with the Allies trading off those areas of Germany they'd agreed on in exchange for a 'western' zone in Poland.

That is unlikely to be how it plays out. Poland is a member of the Allies. There won't be occupation zones per se. There is a recognized Polish government-in-exile. The original idea is that it would return to power once Poland is liberated.

However, the government-in-exile won't play ball with Moscow. So Stalin set up a rival Communist government it installed. He was only able to install this government because the Red Army was crawling all over the country. Stalin would refuse the exiles from ever governing.

In this scenario, if the Western powers occupy any of Poland, they can install the exile government. This will greatly complicate things for Stalin. Most likely, the Soviets and Western powers will agree on some kind of coalition government and blend the two in order to avoid a crisis. The Poles won't be happy, but may go along with it. Negotaitions would be difficult though.

Stalin's main goal would be to achieve secure supply lines through Poland to supply his occupation forces in Germany. He'll likely demand extra-territorial corridors for as long as the occupation lasts.

How exactly things would turn out is difficult to predict. However, Stalin was generally not a risk taker. He preferred quasi-legalistic moves in cooperation with another dominant power. In 1945-1947, he'll want to cooperate as much with the West as possible. Poland is a huge flash point though since the Poles are absolutely anti-Soviet, unlike Benes.

There might be some very difficult situation in regards to Poland until after Stalin dies.

 

[ObssesedNuker]

In this scenario, if the Western powers occupy any of Poland, they can install the exile government.

But the Western Allies haven't occupied any of Poland in the OP. The Oder-Neisse line is the post-WW2 Polish border with Germany. Pre-World War 2, the border was actually even further east.

 

[MattII]

Actually it was decided at one of the conferences what the new borders would be.

 

[DTF955Baseballfan]

Actually it was decided at one of the conferences what the new borders would be.

Tehran - which makes it interesting if the US refused to recognize Soviet gains from the joint invasion with Germany, arguing they were belligerents against Poland, which was an ally of the US at the time. Don't know if FDR would, Willkie might refuse, though.

However, even then, I wonder if Stalin might instead try this - looking at a map I see Belarus has much of what the Soviets took from Poland, with Ukraine having some, too. Could Stalin argue that the Soviets liberated it from Poland? And therefore create an SSR out of it and call it a "free nation"?