WI: Watergate Revealed During the 1972 Election

Would it have been enough to give McGovern the victory?

What seriousness of Watergate are we talking about? Is this a matter of these people clearly being connected to the administration, but no evidence that Nixon had any knowledge of nor approval of the break-in, and the administration treating them like rogue elements? Or is this 1974 level, where the president is clearly guilty without any plausible deniability? The latter is hard, because it took Congressional investigation over a long period to really get at the truth, but it is interesting. Especially if you couple that with the exposure of Agnew for his acceptance of bribes if you move that up, because you have completely blown up the administration, and allowed for the horrible realization that the hippies were right, which terrified every blue collar, anti-busing Nixon voter into double-down self denial in a deliciously schadenfreude way.
 
What seriousness of Watergate are we talking about? Is this a matter of these people clearly being connected to the administration, but no evidence that Nixon had any knowledge of nor approval of the break-in, and the administration treating them like rogue elements? Or is this 1974 level, where the president is clearly guilty without any plausible deniability? The latter is hard, because it took Congressional investigation over a long period to really get at the truth, but it is interesting. Especially if you couple that with the exposure of Agnew for his acceptance of bribes if you move that up, because you have completely blown up the administration, and allowed for the horrible realization that the hippies were right, which terrified every blue collar, anti-busing Nixon voter into double-down self denial in a deliciously schadenfreude way.
I'd say it would be too ASB for the pace to be fast enough to reach 1974 level in four months. What do you think is the farthest the scandal could have gotten if everything went wrong?
 
Chuck Colson tried to firebomb the Brookings Institute. It's unlikely, but that would throw the shit in the fan.
Ssssh. Spoilers. Well, soon they may be :cool: But yes, you've got to have something of (1) that scale esp if there are injuries and significant property damage and (2) that proximity to the Oval Office that either makes it look like Nixon has consistently appalling judgment in subordinates or some of the more weak-willed participants in the dirty tricks regime like Dean start spilling to save their necks. Watergate *was* in the news in '72 and about half the public hadn't heard much about it by November and many of those thought it of little importance because Those Damn Hippies. Nixon's trust favorability went *up* over the course of the campaign thanks to some really brilliant ad men and the green eyed envy of various Democratic grandees who did not get to control the nomination process, where McGovern's tanked over the Eagleton business. You really, really have to crank up the volume on "Watergate" (which wasn't even the clearest evidence of criminality on Nixon's part, it was instead three separate clear orders during 1971 to break into Brookings looking for the Chennault Affair file -- that was actually with Walt Rostow out in Texas -- which took years to find on the tapes because people were looking in the wrong place, namely the 1972 tapes.) Crank it up till the knob comes off. And even then McG's best chance is if Wallace feels he now has leverage against Nixon blackmailing him over Gerald Wallace's tax evasion and mounts a third party run to succeed where he'd failed in 1968 in throwing the election to the House. You really need (1) super-Watergate on human growth hormone after it's been bombarded by gamma rays (you won't like it when it's angry) (2) Wallace in the mix and (3) a clean VP pick for McGovern that has sufficient ties to the establishment to tamp down the sandbagging of his campaign. And even then McGovern wins by a plurality and an eyelash.
 
@Yes Of course, if you get a few thousand Californian votes to switch, Humphrey would win in a landslide.
 
(which wasn't even the clearest evidence of criminality on Nixon's part, it was instead three separate clear orders during 1971 to break into Brookings looking for the Chennault Affair file -- that was actually with Walt Rostow out in Texas -- which took years to find on the tapes because people were looking in the wrong place, namely the 1972 tapes.)
This is big enough to sink the presidency, especially since it would have four years to build up.

For those not familiar, this is Nixon's attempt to sabotage the 1968 peace talks, basically by waving off South Vietnam's Thieu. It may not have made a difference since Thieu wasn't crazy about the talks anyway.
 
Top