WI: Was German unification effectively inevitable?

Disclaimer: Nothing is inevitable with an early enough point of divergence.

Obviously, the Prussians were the main driving force behind the unification of Germany, with Austria losing to Prussia in the war they had in 1866. This led to the formation of the North German Confederation, and soon Germany at the end of the Franco-Prussian War.

But even if things were to go badly for Prussia, then Austria, or even Bavaria, could have rallied together enough states to form Germany, right? I wonder how much would have to go "wrong" for Germany to never form. Seems like it would have to be quite the divergence.
 
Consolidation, for certain - the hodgepodge that was "the Germanies" was simply not going to last in to the 19th/20th centuries. Unification, maybe not. You could have had 2-3 states inside the border of Wilhemine Germany, or one less state and some bits of Germany remaining under the Habsburgs.
 
I mean, for M A X I M U M D I V I S I O N, you could probably have an independent Prussia, Bavaria, Rhine, Baden, Hannover, Saxony, and then a German Union of the rest. You might even be able to make more states than that if you really tried, as well as all sorts of free cities and municipalities. In short, a less messy mess.

I would think such a scenario would end up divided into spheres of "outside powers." The French sphere, the Austrian sphere, the Prussian sphere, and then maybe an extended "Benelux." Honestly, the dynamics of a modern Central Europe where the German identity remains very loose like this and nationalism is much more regional is a fascinating though expirement. Would the region be necessarily more violent, and would a sort of "Central European Union" form out of sheer economic necessity to compete with, say, Russia and Britain? And what of Hannover's standing? It sure would be interesting, and German unification was never inevitable.
 
Disclaimer: Nothing is inevitable with an early enough point of divergence.
It depends on when. In the 19th century. Yeah there probably will be some sort of German unification, although some parts could be left out (like Austria OTL) and the degree of unification could be different (for example a it could be a way loser union, like the EU is instead of a unified country) . If you look at the 16th century. No, not inevitable. It is perfectly possible for Germany to end up in various independent countries (although I agree the mess that was the HRE will not last).
 
Maybe not literally inevitable - nothing is until it happens, but you need some low-probability assumptions to stop it. Either no 1848 revolutions, or a France whose government is firmly committed to upholding the Treaties of 1815. The latter is especially unlikely given that these were imposed after a French defeat. I find it hard to picture.
 
Y’know religion can really do a number on a national identity

eyes the South Slavs

An alternate Reformation, one that involves more and more varied sects than OTL and with longer-lasting bad blood between them might lead to separated nations if nationalism takes hold.

If you’ve got an Anabaptist Austria staring daggers at a radical Calvinist Thuringia across a militarized border while a weak Catholic Prussia desperately searches for allies in the South, what’re the odds that each nation will develop its own, viciously individual consciousness?
 
An Austrian attempt to unite Germany under themselves would bring on Franco-Russian intervention in 1866. Russia would never allow Austria to form a strong Germany

In OTL, Bismarck is pushing the envelop of what France and Russia will accept. There's noting that would have prevented them from restoring the territorial status quo.

Even having Queen Victoria be born a man and keep Hanover united with Britain makes German unification extremely hard
 
I think that a partial unification is indeed inevitable with pretty much any POD around the French Revolution. Now how that unification looks like and who does it, that's easily up for debate. Turning what became the German Empire IOTL into two or three different states should be quite easy and they could potentially stay separate "forever" (which would be easiest if they have somewhat varying forms of government).
 
In OTL, Bismarck is pushing the envelop of what France and Russia will accept. There's nothing that would have prevented them from restoring the territorial status quo.
What a strange thing to say, OTL there was indeed something stopping the french and Russians from returning things to the status quo once Germany had united it was called the Prussian (and later German) army and it had just mopped the floor with France.
 
I think that a partial unification is indeed inevitable with pretty much any POD around the French Revolution. Now how that unification looks like and who does it, that's easily up for debate. Turning what became the German Empire IOTL into two or three different states should be quite easy and they could potentially stay separate "forever" (which would be easiest if they have somewhat varying forms of government).

It definitely was not inevitable. It took Bismarck’s political genius to force the unification through the « little german solution. And the best proof it was not inevitable is that there are several germanic nations today. Austria is a germanic nation, although it is not Germany. Same for the majority of Switzerland.
 
It definitely was not inevitable. It took Bismarck’s political genius to force the unification through the « little german solution. And the best proof it was not inevitable is that there are several germanic nations today. Austria is a germanic nation, although it is not Germany. Same for the majority of Switzerland.

You've overlooked an important part of my post. A partial unification is inevitable. There are so many small states which couldn't have survived and the German Confederation (let alone the HRE) was completely insufficient to protect these small states. Pardon the crappy map, there sadly aren't any good ones online, but this map for instance is of the proposed "Erfurt Union" (or sometimes called German Union), an attempt to unify most German states (with the definite intention of excluding Austria) in 1850. All the pink states had signed onto it but Austrian pressure put a stop to it, but it wouldn't have taken a lot of effort for it to succeed (Württemberg and Bavaria were the two genuine holdouts, Saxony and Hannover were interested).

Bilderrevolution0169.jpg


And don't get me started on the fact that Swiss German identity is largely based on the rejection of pan-German thought.
 
I don’t need to get you started on it since I am perfectly aware of it.

Partial unification is a quite a paradoxical concept to my opinion. Would having a north German entity excluding Hanover because it remains in British orbit, a south German entity and Austria-Hungary be considered unification ?

I hardly think so but that’s debatable.
 
How broad is your scope? The Kingdom of Germany never reunified for example - Germany, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Austria, Liechtenstein, and Switzerland are all separate countries and have been basically through the time period in question
 

TruthfulPanda

Gone Fishin'
Pardon the crappy map,
Fantastic map!
Illustrates how non-German Austria was. I know that inside twenty years the Italian lands were lost, but until 1859 they must had affected perceptions a great deal.
I'm used to thinking of A-H as 22% German, but that's 1913 and inside post-1870 borders. Inside 1850 borders Germans would had accounted for what - 18%? - of the total population?
Back to the map - I see support for the Erfurt Union as more widespread than support of Prussia in 1866 - Nassau, the two Hessen states, Baden ...
 
If German nationalism developed the way it did as in OTL, then there will be the same urge to unite the many states in the 19th century. I would say some uniting could occur, a consolidation of the smaller nations to larger ones. As for which ones form and which ones don't rely on how much Prussia gains in the aftermath of Napoleon.

With a weaker Prussia, Bavaria and the other southern states could probably remain independent. Saxony, Wurttemberg, Baden, and Hannover could also probably stay with Oldenburg coming under Hannoverian control. Hesse and Hesse-Kassel could unite.
 

TruthfulPanda

Gone Fishin'
There will be tremendous pressure by Prussia on Hannover, Kurhessen and Brunswick.
Any of those three would give Prussia a land bridge between its eastern and western holdings.
 
Hannover even under British PU, wouldn't be able to avoid economic integration with the rest of Germany for long.
Fantastic map!
Illustrates how non-German Austria was. I know that inside twenty years the Italian lands were lost, but until 1859 they must had affected perceptions a great deal.
I'm used to thinking of A-H as 22% German, but that's 1913 and inside post-1870 borders. Inside 1850 borders Germans would had accounted for what - 18%? - of the total population?
Back to the map - I see support for the Erfurt Union as more widespread than support of Prussia in 1866 - Nassau, the two Hessen states, Baden ...
In 1850 Austria achieved a massive diplomatic victory and Prussia in 60s was seen as inherently destructive of reform and at the same to ambitious in pushing for hegemony.
BTW A-H was almost 24% German in 1911 and it should be around 20% for 1850 or so.

I would say by 1815 German Unification was pretty much inevitable barring complete dismantlement by foreign powers, although the speed of it could vary and the decentralization would as well.
 
It definitely was not inevitable. It took Bismarck’s political genius to force the unification through the « little german solution. And the best proof it was not inevitable is that there are several germanic nations today. Austria is a germanic nation, although it is not Germany. Same for the majority of Switzerland.
Dont forget Luxembourg and Liechtenstein both of which are as historically German as Austria and more than Switzerland. Heck, even modern day Czechia is historically more Germany than some place like Alsace-Lorraine.
 
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