This is a scenario which has been covered somewhat in timelines before, but I thought I would like to prompt a more generalist discussion to try and work out the possibilities of such a state of affairs. The general idea is that the Ming financial woes and internal rebellion lead to a collapse of that regime, but instead of being replaced by a new native or foreign dynasty, no single power is able to dominate completely and instead a new period of Warring States begins, perhaps lasting for a century or even longer. What would be the ramifications?
It is clear that the concept of the Divine Mandate and unity of China as an empire/civilization would retain their cultural power, so an eventual unification is probably unavoidable, but in the meantime there could be a lot of interesting effects. If this happened later, in the late 18th or early 19th century, it is likely that China would fall prey to opportunistic European colonialism. However in the 17th century this is much more unlikely. Europeans would play roles, but probably as technical advisors or allies of the various Chinese states. Continual military conflict, while it would play havoc on the economy and general livelihood of the populace would also tend to stimulate military technological innovation. European weapons would be imported, but native innovation would also kick in and lead to development paralleling or exceeding that of Europe in this period.
The economic ramifications wouldn't be small either. China would likely be a poorer place, however with less centralized control some of the component states may be more inclined to push into foreign trade for capital, particularly any based around the Fuzhou region. The need to compete with Europeans for South East Asian trade may stimulate naval development around the southern coast.
There is also the question of surrounding peoples. The Manchus, even if they miss their chance for conquest of China due to bad timing or circumstances, will likely be a major player, as will be the Eastern Mongols and the Dzungars. Korea will find itself into a bit of a sticky political position, as it won't be able to go into the "pay tribute to the barbarous Qing while holding ones nose but keep a shrine to the Ming" ideological defensive posture they adopted in OTL. How they deal with multiple claimants to the Mandate of Heaven, plus aggressive Manchu, will be interesting.
Japan would likely get itself involved somehow as well. Tokugawa isolationism was always less about keeping Westerners out as it was to do with the fact that Chinese economic and diplomatic stonewalling and the Japanese unwillingness to submit to the Chinese tribute system. With that system in tatters, the Japanese are going to have a much greater motivation to try and create a new system with their own Emperor as the All-Under-Heaven. So, probably pressure on Korea and possibly another go at military adventures on the mainland.
And, there's the Russians coming around in the north. So lots of foreign pressure, combined with internecine warfare. Seems like this could go a number of different ways.
It is clear that the concept of the Divine Mandate and unity of China as an empire/civilization would retain their cultural power, so an eventual unification is probably unavoidable, but in the meantime there could be a lot of interesting effects. If this happened later, in the late 18th or early 19th century, it is likely that China would fall prey to opportunistic European colonialism. However in the 17th century this is much more unlikely. Europeans would play roles, but probably as technical advisors or allies of the various Chinese states. Continual military conflict, while it would play havoc on the economy and general livelihood of the populace would also tend to stimulate military technological innovation. European weapons would be imported, but native innovation would also kick in and lead to development paralleling or exceeding that of Europe in this period.
The economic ramifications wouldn't be small either. China would likely be a poorer place, however with less centralized control some of the component states may be more inclined to push into foreign trade for capital, particularly any based around the Fuzhou region. The need to compete with Europeans for South East Asian trade may stimulate naval development around the southern coast.
There is also the question of surrounding peoples. The Manchus, even if they miss their chance for conquest of China due to bad timing or circumstances, will likely be a major player, as will be the Eastern Mongols and the Dzungars. Korea will find itself into a bit of a sticky political position, as it won't be able to go into the "pay tribute to the barbarous Qing while holding ones nose but keep a shrine to the Ming" ideological defensive posture they adopted in OTL. How they deal with multiple claimants to the Mandate of Heaven, plus aggressive Manchu, will be interesting.
Japan would likely get itself involved somehow as well. Tokugawa isolationism was always less about keeping Westerners out as it was to do with the fact that Chinese economic and diplomatic stonewalling and the Japanese unwillingness to submit to the Chinese tribute system. With that system in tatters, the Japanese are going to have a much greater motivation to try and create a new system with their own Emperor as the All-Under-Heaven. So, probably pressure on Korea and possibly another go at military adventures on the mainland.
And, there's the Russians coming around in the north. So lots of foreign pressure, combined with internecine warfare. Seems like this could go a number of different ways.