WI: War Plan Red Happened

War Plan Red (for those that don't know) was a military operation concerning war against the United States and Great Britain created during the 1920's. It envisioned pushing Great Britain out of the whole Western Hemisphere. And while this plan was immensely unlikely to happen in OTL. Let's say for the sake of discussion that it did end up happening. How would it have played out?

I've written a short scenario on this and while it's written for a video, I thought it may still work here. I'm not looking to expand it out more, just want some discussion.

The war starts in 1937 and one of the first actions made would be an attempt to take Halifax Nova Scotia by amphibious assault to cut British and Canadian trade, and prevent Halifax from being used as a naval base for the British. Many agree that this attack would fail for the lack of planning that went into it. And with Halifax not being taken, the plan was to occupy New Brunswick and thus cut off Nova Scoita from the rest of Canada. From their the U.S was to launch a full-scale invasion on four fronts. From Vermont to Montreal and Quebec to cut-off the rest of Canada from the East coast, from North Dakota to take over the railway junction at Winnipeg, from Bellingham and Point Roberts to capture British Columbia and Vancouver Island, preventing any reinforcement from the pacific and from the Midwest to capture the strategic nickel mines of Ontario.

The Canadians had a series of defensive strategies that was created in the 1920's. Raiding parties constraining of tens of thousands of men would rush over the border and attempt to capture as much Territory as possible before staging a fighting withdrawal, where they would destroy everything that could be of use to the Americans. The main avenues would be the same routes taken by the U.S army, one would attempt to take Seattle, Portland, and if possible Spokane, while another would strike at Fargo North Dakota and Minneapolis if possible, another taking Detroit and Chicago, and lastly with a strike at New York, focusing on Albany then moving onto Boston. These raids were meant to delay the Americans for as long as possible and wait for British reinforcements.

While the U.S and Canadian planners had anticipated the bulk of Britain's army to be transported to Canada both were mistaken. The officials in the Royal Navy considered Canada a lost cause if an Anglo-American war happened, and knew that trying to send an army to Canada could not be kept supplied, but that Canada would be impossible to fully defend against the much larger aggressor. And while the navy was Britain’s strongest arm, it was the strongest more out of necessity then choice, for without the constant trade convoys at the mainland, Britain could not hope to last long at war. Meaning that risking the fleet for Canada's defense would be far too risky. Yet with a retaliatory invasion of the U.S unrealistic and a blockage too slow, the only option left would be rendering the American Fleet incapable of major operations, either through destroying or blockading it in ports. With both navies so even at this period in time it would be unlikely that either could create a massive advantage over the other, so the war would be an attritional stalemate at sea. The British would bomb coastal cities on the east coast, and keep the American navy locked up as much as possible.

And while the Americans would likely occupy Canada within a year of the invasion, amphibious assaults against island possessions in the Caribbean and Pacific such as Jamaica, The Bahamas, and the Solomon Islands, would be secondary and have a low chance of seceding. The balance between the two navies in the Atlantic would be too even and with the bulk of the American navy in the Atlantic, operations could not be held against the Pacific British possessions. At the same time, The British would attempt assaults in the pacific against targets such as Guam and the port of Manila in the Philippines, with a possible invasion of Hawaii if the naval supremacy could be obtained, and if that was successful, bombing the west coast cities.

The outcome of this war would be a very tense peace, where the U.S would likely trade the Philippines and Guam, for Canada. The war also has the potential to ignite the old Anglo-American rivalry that had plagued the two nations since the American Revolution, causing more conflicts to be fought against the two powers. It could also re-create the ideology of Manifest destiny in the American public’s eye much like in the 1890's, causing more wars of conquest to be waged against not only the British but the Latin and South American countries as well.
 
setting aside the political requirements for this to happen (come back to those later)

Post Washington Naval Treaty, the USN and RN have complete parity, so the RN isn't going to have sufficient numerical advantage to lock up the USN. Post World War I, the British cannot afford a naval race with the United States (one of the reasons the Washington Naval Treaty came about in the first place)

now to the political requirements... short of Britain or the US becoming either Fascist or Communist (fascism being somewhat more likely), the preconditions otherwise make this very unlikely. You can make the case with out a lot of handwaving for a Fascist US or Britain and such a situation could make either a potential ally to Fascist Italy and Nazi Germany (Japan not so much)

Toss in the fact that the US has literally everything an industrialized power needs in the early and mid 20th century in terms of raw materials and energy and an industrial sector that is bigger than Germany and the British Empire put together.... well... things don't look good for the British Empire long term in this situation.
 
1937 is better for the USN for aircraft, the F3F, Devastator and Helldiver really outclass what the RN was operating.

It's also when they were still operating the older Torpedoes, the Mk 10 and Mk 7 for aircraft, they didn't have the problems of the newer ones. The Mk 14 were just starting to be built

While a bit slower, I feel the Standards (the BBs) are better than the QEs and
Nelson/Rodney.
 
1937 is better for the USN for aircraft, the F3F, Devastator and Helldiver really outclass what the RN was operating.

Are those advantages decisive though? Military doctrine hadn't seen the damage that aircraft could do to ships yet (it wasn't until the Norwegian Campaign that that happened really) Would the better aircraft be used in a way that could break the stalemate at sea?
 
The problem with saying "well, let's ignore just how this admittedly extremely improbable war arises; let's just assume it does arise" is that *how* it arises has effects on both the war itself and the political settlement that will follow it. (For example, does the war arise because a fascist or communist regime has taken over in the UK? In that cases, there would be presumably a lot more Canadian "collaboration" with the US than if the war were the product of an expansion-crazed regime in the US. And the question of whether the US will seek to incorporate Canada into the US or will merely seek to eliminate British influence in an independent Canada would likewise depend on just what caused the war.)
 
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