WI: War of the Sixth Coalition in 1812

In 1812, Prussia reluctantly entered into an alliance with Napoleon and sent troops to Russia with him. However in late 1811 Russia and Prussia had actually signed a secret military agreement where Russia promised to aid Prussia if the French invaded. The Prussians then attempted to get Austria to join this alliance but they refused. Later in march with French troops massing on the Prussian border, Fredrick Wilhelm decided to conclude an alliance with Napoleon.

So if Austria is persuaded to join the alliance or Fredrick Wilhelm decides to make a public alliance with Russia, and war breaks out in say march 1812 (this is when Napoleon had the Grande Armee massed along the Prussian border), we get another coalition war a year earlier. What would the likely outcome of a war like this be and how do the British and Sweden react? Also which side would have more of an advantage? I want to hear peoples thoughts since I haven't seen a thread with this PoD.

For reference I know that Napoleon had about 300,000 men, Russia had 200,000 (but could mobilize many more) and Prussia about 40,000 due to treaty limitations, but I'm sure they could mobilize more freikorps. As for Austrian figures I don't have any, sorry. As for battlegrounds I reckon around Poland and Eastern Prussia, atleast initially, right?
 
Prussia would just turn into the same battleground of 3 titans (France, Austria, Russia) as it had in the past. At least by allying with France it gave Nappy no reason to stick around and proceed on into Russia, so in essence Prussia made the best move by doing what they did.

Had they gotten Austria on board somehow, Nappy would just turn Germany into a warzone as the 3 major armies fight across it back and forth while Prussians get press ganged and forced to join whatever major army is walking through their land. Napoleonic Wars get some interesting butterlies as Prussia is gutted hard. Russia and Austria suffer more casualties as now they're on the offensive trying to drive the French of Prussian land and if the campaign goes ugly, potentially causing a major rift between Austria and Russia that Tallyrand can try to use to put a more longer lasting wedge and thus try to reduce the number of enemies Nappy has to fight at one time. Nappy still gonna lose, but the wars get dragged out longer as at least he's forced to fight more on the strategic defensive and doesnt suffer a major hit to his prestige and horrendous losses from the Retreat from Moscow.
 
This POD seems like it'd be after Talleyrand's defection, so him deciding to use his manipulations in service of Napoleon again doesn't seem on the table. That said, Napoleon still hasn't lost all of his cavalry, so he's got a much better chance of mauling Prussian and Russian armies through pursuit after defeating them in detail a la Bautzen and Lutzen.
 
In 1812, Prussia reluctantly entered into an alliance with Napoleon and sent troops to Russia with him. However in late 1811 Russia and Prussia had actually signed a secret military agreement where Russia promised to aid Prussia if the French invaded. The Prussians then attempted to get Austria to join this alliance but they refused. Later in march with French troops massing on the Prussian border, Fredrick Wilhelm decided to conclude an alliance with Napoleon.

So if Austria is persuaded to join the alliance or Fredrick Wilhelm decides to make a public alliance with Russia, and war breaks out in say march 1812 (this is when Napoleon had the Grande Armee massed along the Prussian border), we get another coalition war a year earlier. What would the likely outcome of a war like this be and how do the British and Sweden react? Also which side would have more of an advantage? I want to hear peoples thoughts since I haven't seen a thread with this PoD.

For reference I know that Napoleon had about 300,000 men, Russia had 200,000 (but could mobilize many more) and Prussia about 40,000 due to treaty limitations, but I'm sure they could mobilize more freikorps. As for Austrian figures I don't have any, sorry. As for battlegrounds I reckon around Poland and Eastern Prussia, atleast initially, right?

The of your ATL is very close to what happened OTL.

Alexander was trying to have Prussia join a coalition against France. Davout, who commanded the french army in Germany, learnt about it through polish intelligence and Poniatowski. He warned Napoleon and advised him to destroy Prussia preemptively.

Napoleon instead chose to send a warning making it clear to Prussia that it would be dismantled if it ever betrayed the french empire. Which was of course à mistake since it led Prussia to wait for the right moment, after the disastrous russian campaign.

Once more, Davout was right.
 
Top