WI: War breaks out in March 1936

Reene

Banned
I just watched a most awesome lets play of HOI4 out there which inspired me to ask this question.
What if in March of 1936 Germany tried to get into Rhineland, GB and France dont back down and war starts.

Where does the world opinion stand? Germany still has clean slate, as long as their demands go. So would US drift towards Germany? What about the rest of the world, would they sympathise with the Germans of Allies? And what about Poland, would it use that to stab Germans while they are distracted?

Also, what about Italy and Japan? Would they try to get involved into this early war?

Oh and if you're interested, here is the lets play;

Now Spoiler questions in white if you watched the video or dont intend to watch it:

1. There was a civil war that broke out in France when it declared war, probably as a result of population refusing to go into another world war. How likely is that in case of 1936 Rhineland war?

2. War started on March 11th, and France capitulated by April 13th. What would the reaction of the world be if that happened this early?

3. How far would allies go? Would this be a war to the end, like WW2 turned out, or a limited conflict that would end soon when sides got bruised enough?

4. What about the giants on the sidelines, the US and Soviets? Where do they stand and how would they perceive this war?

5. Realistically, what are the chances of Germany having such success in 1936?

6. How quickly would combatants retoll their economy on war footing?



Thanks for any and all answers :)
 
Germany gets its ass handed to it within a few months, Hitler and the Nazis are removed from power, and the Rhineland gets taken away from Germany (like the Saarland was after IOTL's WWII).
 
Less than a few months. The occupation force amounted to six infantry regiments. No artillery. Their orders were to march back east across the Rhine if the French mobilized.

At that point Germany had approx 14 partially trained infantry divisions and a cavalry div. There were a couple dozen others on paper, but those lacked weapons & often any training cadre.

IIRC the French could mobilize 18 "Active" infantry divisions, with a suite of corps artillery groups, & over a dozen tank battalions, in 4-5 days. 20+ Series A divisions would be ready in under 14 days. along with all the corps and army HQ/support units to stand up five armies.
 
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France would probably have to pull out of the Rhineland eventually due to lack of finances (the main reason they never went to war over the Rhineland OTL) and lack of British support for them doing so. The British public wasn't exactly eager to support France's 1920s interventions in Germany either economically or militarily, and that reflected itself in the public views of most all British politicians from Conservative to Labour.

But yes, Germany would utterly lose, and I think it if genuinely came to war (or looked like it would be), Germany would try and negotiate a peace which both France and Britain would gladly accept because nobody wanted an actual war, even Hitler.
 
France prepares to intervene (OTL)
French Government informed that the French army is not built for rapid intervention and that given likely enemy strength what forces could move swiftly would be inadequate, full war mobilisation required to rectify this. (OTL)
French Government informed that French economy, already in difficulty and running effectively because the government refuses to acknowledge that its broken and the French people are willing to carry on with this delusion, would probably go under for real if it did go on a war footing. (OTL)
French Government decides to press ahead (ATL)
French Government invades Rhineland a few weeks after Germans withdraw (ATL)
French Economy suffers, international condemnation grows particularly from Britain and the USA. (ATL)
Britain steps in having discussed matters with the Germans and offers a face saving diplomatic solution that has the Germans pinky swear to accept the other terms of ToV if it is allowed to reoccupy Rhineland (ATL)
France accepts that it is not willing to pay the cost of permanently sitting on Germany with its allies actively working against this aim. (OTL)
 
Add to the above:

...the possibility of a anti nazi coup by the German army.

Economic panic in Germany. Along with the French problems that triggers yeat another global downturn, extending the Depression another year or more.

A resurgence of leftist political activity world wide, & especially in Germany and France.
 
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