WI war between Argentina and Brazil in 1850?

First a long (and extremly biased) historical introduction:

In 1850, Argentina was rulled by Rosas. Rosas was formally just the governor of the province of Buenos Aires, provisionally in charge of the foreign relations of the Confederacy. But, in practictice, he was the supreme ruler of the country. He had invented a formula that would proved very succesfull a century later, not only in Latin America: it combined the ideas of order, social conservatism, anti-liberalism, nationalism, idealization of a mythical past (in his case, the colonial society), control of the church and (and this was the new element) support form the masses. Rosas atacked modernizers as “Europeizantes”, that is, people who wanted to introduce ideas that would destroy the traditional way of life of the country. He knew how to get support (or, more precisesly the “respect”) of the masses of gauchos, mestizos and blacks. Many of the members of these groups didn’t see any concrete benefits in the Liberals’ projects[1]. They didn’t see what benefit secularization, division of power, commerce or European immigration would bring them. All they knew was that those who advocated these reforms where members of the upper classes who dressed as European, talked like Europeans and looked down them. Rosas, instead, was seen as “one of them”, a man of the people, who spoke like them and dress like them.

Despite numerous rebelions, Rosas had managed to effectively control the whole country by 1850. He didn’t recognised the independence of Paraguay and Uruguay. In fact, he effectively controlled most of Uruguay through Oribe, an Uruguayan caudillo who answered to him. He was feared (or “respected” if you prefer) from the tents of the Amerindian Chiefs in the pampas to the british House of Commons (Britain and France had negotiated a favourable treaty with him two years before).

There was, however, a a city with constituted an obstacle to his complete control of the River Plate: Montevideo. The city had been under-siege for seven years, but still held, getting supplies through the River. Those Argentinians who were against Rosas’s “way of dealing with public affairs” had fled to Montevideo. From there, with the help of Uruguayan leaders, they had organised, supported or directed a series of rebelions and/or invasions against Rosas government. By 1850, however, Rosas had placed loyal governors in all Argentine province, and had streched the siege around Montevideo.

Some historians [2] argue that, having already assured internal peace, the next step in his mind was a war with Brazil, which, in case of a victory, would imply the formal re-anexation of Uruguay (and maybe even Paraguay) to the Confederacy. In 1850, Rosas had an army of more than 20.000 well preapared soldiers. Brazil (according to this same historian) didn’t.

IOTL, this war didn’t took place, because Urquiza, governor of Entre Ríos, got fed up with Rosas’ tyranical rule and decided to ally with his enemies: Montevideo and Brazil. Brazil invaded Uruguay, the siege was broken, and an army compossed by Entrerrianos, Argentine exiles, Uruguayans and Brazilians (“Ejército Grande”) invaded Buenos Aires and defeated Rosas at the Battle of Caseros (3/02/1852). This would in tern lead to the Argentina we all know: smaller, but open to immigration and modernization, secular, and looking more towards Europe (meaning France or Great Britain) than to its Hispanic and colonial traditions.


But what if Urquiza had stayed loyal, and gone to war with Brazil in 1850? Would he had won? What would the consequences of this victory be in the region?

[1] In a way, they weren’t that mistaken, because the way Argentina would eventually modernize during the second half of the XIX century wouldn’t bring these groups substantial benefits. On the countrary, many of them were largely marginalised from the wealth brought by modernization. Other groups, such as the big landowners or the newly arrived European immigrants, benefited more directly.

[2] Floria y García Belsunce
 
Just when did Argentina give up its claim on Paraguay and Uruguay anyway?

I think if Rosas did well against Brazil he'd be faced with intervention from Britain, France and Paraguay, possibly Chile and Bolivia, maybe even Spain and Portugal. The Great War would not be won by a Great Army but by a Great Alliance.
 
Just when did Argentina give up its claim on Paraguay and Uruguay anyway?.

It's a bit complicated. Argentina signed a treaty with Barzil in 1828, in which both countries aknowledged Uruguay's independence. However, the treaty hadn't been signed by Rosas himself, but but a different government, with a different ideology;for that reason, Rosas didn't consider it binding (a common practice in Latin America and elsewhere).

Anyway, Rasas didn't gave importance to formal documents. He might not try to formally anex Uruguay, as long as it was clear for evrebody that it would be strictly in his sphere of influence and under his hegemony.

I'm not sure about Paraguay. It declared its independence in 1811, and was independente since then, for all purposes. But I don't know when Argentina recognised its independence. Anyway, a war to reconquer Paraguay seems very unlikely in 1850. If Rosas wins clearly in a war with Brazil and gets complete control of Uruguay, well, it's a different matter: a future war might be possible.

I think if Rosas did well against Brazil he'd be faced with intervention from Britain, France and Paraguay, possibly Chile and Bolivia, maybe even Spain and Portugal. The Great War would not be won by a Great Army but by a Great Alliance.

Paraguay? Likely. France? Not sure, since the period 1848-1852 was one of serious internal difficulties. Great Britain will definitely have a say in the matter, since it had granted the independence of Uruguay, and was very active in the River Plate in those days. But I'm not completely sure if she would intervened military. She didn't do much when Portugal invaded and Brazil integrated the area to its territory as a province; she didn't intervene directly during the war of 1825-28; thus, she might not necessarly intervene in a war during 1850 (although an intervention is a clear possibility).

Chile and Bolivia, I think, had enough problems on their own. At the most, Chile might try to grab some territory in what's now Argentinian Patagonia, and Argentina wouln'd do much about that, since Rosas didn't cared that much for that territory (in Amerindian hands in those days), IIRC.
 
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Just some ideas about the conflict:

By 1850 the Brazilian government already believed that a war against Rosas was inevitable. In 1849 the President of the Council of Ministers (the equivalent to Prime-Minister), Pedro de Araújo Lima, was replaced exactly because he defended the peace. In his place was nominated José de Carvalho Costa, future Marquis of Monte Alegre, who indicated a man who hated Rosas and wanted a war to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Paulino de Souza.

At the time, Brazil had a powerful Navy and many troops experienced after years fighting the provincial revolts. However, exactly because they were affraid of new revolts (the last one, the Praieira in Pernambuco, had ended in the early 1850), the government decided for not ask for general conscription and just send the better troops to Argentina, while gave huge loans to Urquiza and the Uruguayans to finance their own troops against Rosas.

Also, in the diplomatical field, Brazil made a defensive agreement with Bolivia. IOTL the Bolivians didn't send troops against Rosas, but they reinforced their borders in case of invasion. Also, the Brazilian government made other agreement with Paraguay (BTW, Argentina only recognized the Paraguayan independence in 1852, after the fall of Rosas). In the treaty, Paraguay should sell horses for the Brazilian Army, and send troops in case of war. However, IOTL Carlos Antonio Lopez didn't send any soldier to the front because he didn't trust Urquiza (the Paraguayan president believed that Urquiza also wanted to annex Missiones to Entre-Rios).

Finally, the Brazilian government sent the Count (later Duke) of Caxias to Rio Grande do Sul, were he took the government of the province. Caxias was the most competent Brazilian general, and he became president of a province that had recentry ended a civil war that lasted 10 years, plenty of experienced troops and with many former rebel military leaders who wanted to show their value to the Empire in order to receive political advantages.

So, if ITTL Urquiza stays loyal than we would still have a war, but probably fought more on Uruguayan and Brazilian territory rather than in Argentina proper. I think it's unlikely to Montevideo to fall, as it could be easily supplied by sea, and the Imperial Navy would help to have this. Also, if Urquiza stays loyal, the Brazilian government might just find other caudillo who would accept bribery to fight against Rosas (but probably a less competent one). Also, as Urquiza is at Rosas' side then Carlos Lopez would have no reason to not fight, and Paraguay would be a Brazilian ally.

The war would be bloodier and longer than IOTL, and the result would come probably by exhaustion of the loser side. In the case that Brazil loses, then it would be a shock to the monarchy, but it wouldn't fall immediately, as it was still seen as necessary to keep the country united. The Army would blame the civil government, and all the political issues that came from the end of the Tripple Alliance War (abolition of slavery, immigration, power to the Army, Republicanism, etc) would appear 20 years earlier.

Now, I'm not sure if Rosas could annex Uruguay and Paraguay, it depends on the extent of his military success, but I assume it isn't out of possibility. But if he does then it might cause some economical conflict with Britain and France, as they didn't want a single country controlling the access of the Plata basin. It would only be worsened by the "anti-European" ideas of Rosas.

Personally I doubt that Rosas could halt for too long the immigration to Argentina. The old "gaucho way of life" would exist for longer, but soon or later political forces would push for immigration and modernization. However, if it's delayed for time enough we might see Brazil taking advantage and atracting immigrants who IOTL would go to Argentina. Even IOTL immigration was used in Brazil as a way to have free citizens who could fight for the Empire. The first German immigrants who came to Rio Grande do Sul in 1824 were supposed to fight in the region, and during the war against Rosas, for example, we sent 1800 soldiers from Schleswig-Holstein to fight in Argentina - the were called Brummers - who were settled in Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina after this. With a Brazil humiliated by two defeats against Argentina (the War of Cisplatina and the War against Rosas) and a vengeful Army pushing for modernization we might see the Brazilian government bringing more immigrants to South Brazil in order to have a white and free population who could provide troops for other war.
 

maverick

Banned
Can't believe I missed this:p

Anyhow, in case of war, the Argentinean army is represented by three very competent men:

Angel Pacheco
Lucio V. Mansilla
Justo Jose de Urquiza

All very accomplished generals, the first two disciples of San Martin, and they served under him, and Pacheco himself was never defeated in battle. Some even argue that had Pacheco or Mansilla been at Caseros, Rosas would have won. This is of course very likely.

So, we have a very competent army with competent leadership, Rosas has nothing to fear from the Interior, since all the rebellions of 1840-1842 have been crushed, Bolivia is likely to garrison its borders but not to interfere.

Carlos Lopez doesn't like Rosas, but he's not stupid, and will not interfere if he can avoid it, although he is likely to side with Brazil.
 
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