Factoids to ponder: Stelvio (which is not the highest alpine pass, mind you) is 2757 m, the highest mountain in the korean peninsula is 2744 m, Bullions peak at just 1423 m
.WI:WAllies instead invaded europe using italy.
- Thread starter MasterOledom
- Start date
Factoids to ponder: Stelvio (which is not the highest alpine pass, mind you) is 2757 m, the highest mountain in the korean peninsula is 2744 m, Bullions peak at just 1423 m
.Factoids to ponder: Stelvio (which is not the highest alpine pass, mind you) is 2757 m, the highest mountain in the korean peninsula is 2744 m, Bullions peak at just 1423 m
Height of the passes is a minor part. Steep slopes & razor back ridges extending for many kilometers without any pass. A few two lane or single lane roads. The automotive roads zigzag all over & have choke points at tunnels ext… Overlooking terrain wherever you try to move. Maneuver restricted to painfully slow climbs to the crests, or rolling back and forth on the valley floor. maneuver between adjacent valleys is beyond difficult. At least in the Mojave there were no rivers or unfordable stream beds. Just jagged rocks that burst your tires.
Honestly the only way to reasonably use Italy for invade Europe is a total different handling of his surrendering...otherwise is just a waste of time and money
Another fact: The US had already a large presence in England through ots bomber force and a smooth running supply line by ship.and by air. So England pretty much presented itself as a staging ground for the invasion, better then let's say Egypt.
Also in France (and Belgium and the Netherlands) you can count on the goodwill of the local population, who sees you as their liberators. Belgium and the Netherlands had a functioning government in exile in London that could take over and ensure their countries support. France had De Gaule.... In Italy you would never know how far you can trust the natives.
Also in France (and Belgium and the Netherlands) you can count on the goodwill of the local population, who sees you as their liberators. Belgium and the Netherlands had a functioning government in exile in London that could take over and ensure their countries support. France had De Gaule.... In Italy you would never know how far you can trust the natives.
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usertron2020
Donor
So, you and I are in agreement, then?
BTW, Germany runs out of chrome and therefore its ability to make any weapons no later than the Winter of 1945-46. After that, it's Game Over for the 3rd Reich. But I get your point.I think logisitically, they had to go to France. Sure, they could have done Italy and Greece but they would have been stretched so much more in supplying the men.
TFSmith121
Banned
Well, there's the simple option:
Well, there's the simple option:
Stay out of Italy entirely and force the Germans to back up the Italians on both big islands and up and down the western and southern/southeastern coasts.
Basically, turn the entire peninsula into the same sort of defensive sink Norway was; a salient, vulnerable to sea and air power that the Axis could only defend with infantry, artillery, and concrete.
Use the various SOE, OSS, SBS, SAS, etc to keep things hopping, along with various deception operations, and the 12th, 15th, and MAF, plus the Mediterranean Fleet when necessary just to stir things up... nothing ruins your day like a 15 inch shell.
Depending on when this decision is made, either OVERLORD (or ROUNDUP) can be executed early, and ANVIL/DRAGOON follows, or at the very least, if the historical timeframes follow, the available German mobile forces and air power will be even more dispersed then they were historically.
Best,
Well, there's the simple option:
Stay out of Italy entirely and force the Germans to back up the Italians on both big islands and up and down the western and southern/southeastern coasts.
Basically, turn the entire peninsula into the same sort of defensive sink Norway was; a salient, vulnerable to sea and air power that the Axis could only defend with infantry, artillery, and concrete.
Use the various SOE, OSS, SBS, SAS, etc to keep things hopping, along with various deception operations, and the 12th, 15th, and MAF, plus the Mediterranean Fleet when necessary just to stir things up... nothing ruins your day like a 15 inch shell.
Depending on when this decision is made, either OVERLORD (or ROUNDUP) can be executed early, and ANVIL/DRAGOON follows, or at the very least, if the historical timeframes follow, the available German mobile forces and air power will be even more dispersed then they were historically.
Best,
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Which leaves Italy still in the war (even if unenthusiastic), their Navy afloat, the Mediterranean closed to shipping and Stalin asking the western allies if they know there is a war on (as there will be no ground combat for a year between the fall of Tunisia and Overlord in May 1944).
Landing in Italy with the goal of Berlin is not very sensible, but neither is ignoring it.
TFSmith121
Banned
If the point of departure is the Casablanca conference
If the point of departure is the Casablanca conference, the obvious alternatives to Italy proper are:
A) a late-summer ROUNDHAMMER), or
B) Sardinia-Corsica-Provence.
The Italians in the war for the Axis becomes a resource sink for the Axis; the Italian navy was combat-ineffective by mid-1943, largely because of the POL. situation and Allied air and naval supremacy; and the through-passage of the Med was open to Malta and points east before Tunisia fell.
Staying out of the peninsula makes a tremendous difference, and generally very positively, to the Allied war effort.
BEST,
If the point of departure is the Casablanca conference, the obvious alternatives to Italy proper are:
A) a late-summer ROUNDHAMMER), or
B) Sardinia-Corsica-Provence.
The Italians in the war for the Axis becomes a resource sink for the Axis; the Italian navy was combat-ineffective by mid-1943, largely because of the POL. situation and Allied air and naval supremacy; and the through-passage of the Med was open to Malta and points east before Tunisia fell.
Staying out of the peninsula makes a tremendous difference, and generally very positively, to the Allied war effort.
BEST,
While a WALLY landing in Marseilles might look easy on the map .... WALLY troops quickly get funnelled into a narrow route, fighting the length of the Rhone River Valley all the way to Geneva, then fightng the length of the Saone River Valley, then trying to cross the Vosges Mountains near Metz, then fighting diagonally North East across a series of short, steep German mountain ranges: Black Forest, Schwabish Alps, etc.
Suddenly, a WALLY invasion of Switzerland starts to make sense: just turn right at Geneva and march north through that wide valley all the way to the Rhine River at Basel.
Suddenly, a WALLY invasion of Switzerland starts to make sense: just turn right at Geneva and march north through that wide valley all the way to the Rhine River at Basel.
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TFSmith121
Banned
Considering a 1943 ANVIL:
Considering an autumn, 1943 ANVIL ... assault forces are (at the least) equivalent to HUSKY, so 6-8 divisions (each reinforced by an armored brigade equivalent) combat-loaded afloat simultaneously, with two airborne divisions in theater. Granted, preceding landings on Sardinia and Corsica in the summer are going to point to southern France (or northwestern Italy, depending on the deception operations.).
Considering the inability of the Germans and Italians to hang on to Sicily, Sardinia, or Corsica historically in 1943 in the face of the Allies, seems reasonable to expect a ANVIL-equivalent, potentially with a break-out to the north and the west.
What's the line for the Germans? Grenoble-Lyon-Vichy?
Best,
Considering an autumn, 1943 ANVIL ... assault forces are (at the least) equivalent to HUSKY, so 6-8 divisions (each reinforced by an armored brigade equivalent) combat-loaded afloat simultaneously, with two airborne divisions in theater. Granted, preceding landings on Sardinia and Corsica in the summer are going to point to southern France (or northwestern Italy, depending on the deception operations.
).Considering the inability of the Germans and Italians to hang on to Sicily, Sardinia, or Corsica historically in 1943 in the face of the Allies, seems reasonable to expect a ANVIL-equivalent, potentially with a break-out to the north and the west.
What's the line for the Germans? Grenoble-Lyon-Vichy?
Best,
usertron2020
Donor
Actually, the further north you went the more problematical the relationship between the Italians and the WAllies. Tho OTOH the more likely the locals were to "back the winning horse".
Um, actually I think it was more a matter of the fact that there was scarcely a family in all of Sicily that didn't have relatives in the United States. Having at least one Italian-speaking US soldier in almost every last squad (!) in the Seventh Army meant it was much easier getting along with the locals than the other Allies would have.
The problem with a late Roundup is that it minimizes campaigning in warm weather that year and the Allies won't have air supremacy, just air superiority. Maybe not even that, if Hitler flips and throws the whole of the Luftwaffe into France. Meaning no interceptors to engage the WAllied strategic bombing campaign, and air supremacy over the Med for the WAllies. Oh yeah, and total air supremacy for the Red Air Force
Not to mention that the WAllies will be a lot greener and more incompetent in amphib ops in 1943 than in 1944, and the invasion forces will still be mostly British, with hardly more than a few token American forces ready for combat. BIG political problems between Britain and the USA. I foresee Galipoli 2.0 on steroids, at least for a while.
I gamed this one out a couple years ago. Did it multiple time with variations in the OB to cover difering takes on what would have been committed, and used two different games to help smooth out design quirks.
All the iterations had a invasion of south France in January 1944 instead of Operation Shingle in Central Italy. Allied OB was confined to what was availalbe in the Mediterranean December 1943-1944. Played each ittertion through to the autum of 1944 or beyond.
The aggregate of the six rounds played though showed that yes the Germans could confine the Allied army group to southern France. However... sufficient force to do so weakens the German armies elsewhere. It requires most of the mobile reserve & a portion of the local defense from northern France to accomplish a complete confinement. That fatally weakens the defense vs any northern invasion. Using Kesselrings reserves and some of his front line forces from Italy does not provide enough battlefield strength and ends up weakening both the Italian front and still weakens the defense in northern France. No matter how the German reserves were maniplulated the defense of Normandy, Pas de Calis, or Brittiany were reduced.
Part of the problem for the German side is the terrain eastwards from the Southern coast to the east coast is not covered by the rugged mountains of the central massif. There is a broad swath opening out westwards of rolling hills and valleys leading to the coastal plains of western France. A fairly good railway led west from Marsailles to Bayonne & Bourdeux. This region requires a substantial mobile force to delay any Allied army sent west to Bayonne/Bourdeux. If the Allies capture either port reinforcements can be sent directly from the US or UK vs waiting for a port in NW France to be opened.
If the defense created in the south is a smaller delaying force designed to slowly trade ground for time the danger becomes it is attritted away & when the main event comes in May or June the delaying force is in danger of collase - three months earlier than OTL. Bottom line is capturing the Marsailles port group in the winter of 1943-44 & building up a Allied army group in south France over the next four months creates a severe problem for the German defense in the west.
Considering an autumn, 1943 ANVIL ... assault forces are (at the least) equivalent to HUSKY, so 6-8 divisions (each reinforced by an armored brigade equivalent) combat-loaded afloat simultaneously, with two airborne divisions in theater. Granted, preceding landings on Sardinia and Corsica in the summer are going to point to southern France (or northwestern Italy, depending on the deception operations.
Considering the inability of the Germans and Italians to hang on to Sicily, Sardinia, or Corsica historically in 1943 in the face of the Allies, seems reasonable to expect a ANVIL-equivalent, potentially with a break-out to the north and the west.
What's the line for the Germans? Grenoble-Lyon-Vichy?
Best,
Congratulations, all you've really done is move the Italian mainland campaign to the south of France, which has its own good share of mountains. Therefore a break-out seems unlikely.
You have also left Italy in the war and landed within a few hundred miles of their naval bases - allied navies will be more concerned about a surface action, than providing gunfire support to the landings.
TFSmith121
Banned
Depends on when ROUNDUP goes in, of course,
Depends on when ROUNDUP goes in, of course, but the campaign season in NW Europe usually lasted to October; if D-Day is July (HUSKY analogue) that still gives the Allies at least 90-120 days of good weather, complete naval supremacy, air supremacy (air superiority only if the LW withdraws everything from the Med, the defense of the Reich, and the eastern front, which causes all sort of problems for the Axis - multi-front wars are like that), and the "green" Allied amphibious forces are the same ones that historically sucessfully carried off CORKSCREW, HUSKY, BAYTOWN, and AVALANCHE in 1943 ...
Invasion forces would mirror those in HUSKY; the equivalent of four US divisions, three British, and one Canadian in the assault, with the equivalent of the OVERLORD forces in the build-up, and against significantly weaker German defenders in 1943 than in 1944 in terms of ground forces.
It would have been doable; the time frame probably puts the Allies a month behind the historical 1944 rate of advance, but that's hardly Gallipoli Verison 2.0.
Best,
The problem with a late Roundup is that it minimizes campaigning in warm weather that year and the Allies won't have air supremacy, just air superiority. Maybe not even that, if Hitler flips and throws the whole of the Luftwaffe into France. Meaning no interceptors to engage the WAllied strategic bombing campaign, and air supremacy over the Med for the WAllies. Oh yeah, and total air supremacy for the Red Air Force
Not to mention that the WAllies will be a lot greener and more incompetent in amphib ops in 1943 than in 1944, and the invasion forces will still be mostly British, with hardly more than a few token American forces ready for combat. BIG political problems between Britain and the USA. I foresee Galipoli 2.0 on steroids, at least for a while.
Depends on when ROUNDUP goes in, of course, but the campaign season in NW Europe usually lasted to October; if D-Day is July (HUSKY analogue) that still gives the Allies at least 90-120 days of good weather, complete naval supremacy, air supremacy (air superiority only if the LW withdraws everything from the Med, the defense of the Reich, and the eastern front, which causes all sort of problems for the Axis - multi-front wars are like that), and the "green" Allied amphibious forces are the same ones that historically sucessfully carried off CORKSCREW, HUSKY, BAYTOWN, and AVALANCHE in 1943 ...
Invasion forces would mirror those in HUSKY; the equivalent of four US divisions, three British, and one Canadian in the assault, with the equivalent of the OVERLORD forces in the build-up, and against significantly weaker German defenders in 1943 than in 1944 in terms of ground forces.
It would have been doable; the time frame probably puts the Allies a month behind the historical 1944 rate of advance, but that's hardly Gallipoli Verison 2.0.
Best,