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I was reading about the life of Jogaila, the first monarch of the union between Poland and Lithuania, and I noticed that the permanence of his dynasty in the Polish throne seems almost a good stroke of luck. From his first wife Jadwiga he had only one daughter who died just a month after her birth. Then his second wife -Anne of Celje - gave him other daughter, who was even betrothed to the future Frederick II of Brandenburg, but died in 1431 before any marriage could be made.

His third wife - Elisabeth of Pilica - died childless. It was only with his fourth wife - Sophia of Halshany - that he got his heirs (Wladislaus III and Casimir IV). And he was already 62 when his fist son from Sophia was born.

So, WI he had been unlucky with his last wife too, and she can't give him surviving heirs? Sophia actually gave birth to other son between Wladislaus and Casimir, but he died after before reaching 10 months, so I don't think it would be too unlikely. What would be the consequences in Poland? Who could claim the throne? And what could happen in Lithuania?

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